Newsweek's Alter: Hillary Should Get Out Now

[cali]

Clinton has only one shot—for Obama to trip up so badly that he disqualifies himself.

Mar 3, 2008 Issue

If Hillary Clinton wanted a graceful exit, she'd drop out now—before the March 4 Texas and Ohio primaries—and endorse Barack Obama. This would be terrible for people like me who have been dreaming of a brokered convention for decades. For selfish reasons, I want the story to stay compelling for as long as possible, which means I'm hoping for a battle into June for every last delegate and a bloody floor fight in late August in Denver. But to withdraw this week would be the best thing imaginable for Hillary's political career. She won't, of course, and for reasons that help explain why she's in so much trouble in the first place.

Withdrawing would be stupid if Hillary had a reasonable chance to win the nomination, but she doesn't. To win, she would have to do more than reverse the tide in Texas and Ohio, where polls show Obama already even or closing fast. She would have to hold off his surge, then establish her own powerful momentum within three or four days. Without a victory of 20 points or more in both states, the delegate math is forbidding. In Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22, the Clinton campaign did not even file full delegate slates. That's how sure they were of putting Obama away on Super Tuesday.

The much-ballyhooed race for superdelegates is now nearly irrelevant. Some will be needed in Denver to put Obama over the top, just as Walter Mondale had to round up a couple dozen in 1984. But these party leaders won't determine the result. At the Austin, Texas, debate last week, Hillary agreed that the process would "sort itself out" so that the will of the people would not be reversed by superdelegates. Obama has a commanding 159 lead in pledged delegates and a lead of 925,000 in the popular vote (excluding Michigan and Florida, where neither campaigned). Closing that gap would require Hillary to win all the remaining contests by crushing margins. Any takers on her chances of doing so in, say, Mississippi and North Carolina, where African-Americans play a big role?

The pundit class hasn't been quicker to point all this out because of what happened in New Hampshire. A lot of us looked foolish by all but writing Hillary off when she lost the Iowa caucuses. As we should have known, stuff happens in politics. But that was early. The stuff that would have to happen now would be on a different order of magnitude. It's time to stop overlearning the lesson of New Hampshire.

Hillary has only one shot—for Obama to trip up so badly that he disqualifies himself. Nothing in the last 14 months suggests he will. He has made plenty of small mistakes, but we're past the point where a "likable enough" comment will turn the tide. When Obama bragged in the Austin debate about how "good" his speeches were, the boast barely registered. He has brought up his game so sharply that even a head cold and losing the health-care portion of the debate on points did nothing to derail him. Hillary's Hail Mary pass—that Obama is a plagiarist—was incomplete.

<snip>

http://www.newsweek.com/id/114725

Expect a lot more of this in the next week, including lots of leaks from insiders saying the same thing.

[NC_Nurse]

1. He makes a compelling argument.

I doubt that it will happen though. I don't know how much worse it will have to get
to break through the denial that it's over for her.

My guess is it will sink in after March 4th.

[cali]

4. unless her internals show her losing by double digits in OH and TX

she'll stay in until after March 4. But I don't think she's in denial. I think she's desperately searching for any dirt, no matter how vile or even untrue to throw at him. Let's face it, there's nothing that the repukes won't do that Hill won't do. At least we know if she does miraculously win the nominee, she'll do any despicable thing to win the general.

[NC_Nurse]

9. How comforting...

:puke: :puke: :puke:

[jlake]

46. Wow. I think that is over the top.

[babylonsister]

2. I hope Clinton goes for the grace, but I just don't see it.

Obama, watch for banana peels placed by your dear adversary.

[DemGa]

3. Bow out in the face of a fad -- before the contest is decided? A silly notion...nt

[cali]

5. Try reading. It's obviously not a fad

it's a successful campaign, and there's virtually no way for her to get the nom, barring something extraordinary happening. She's done. Her goose is cooked. She screwed her own candidacy. Time for Hill to go bye bye.

[Political Heretic]

6. People still calling it a "fad" are the true "cultists"

[Muzza]

10. Agreed, In part.

Fad or not, there is no reason or basis for a premature exit. What, just so that men can have an easy win yet again? Stuff it, fight to the end I say.

[TexasObserver]

7. She'll wait until she's crashed and burned beyond repair.

March 4th.

This is the END.

[Zachstar]

23. Beyond repair goes far beyond 08

A crash and burn now will mean her chances in 2012 are effectively nil. There will simply be TOO MUCH from this act of desperation to form anything that looks sort of like a shield.

She ought to exit now and state "I acted this way to give our next president of the United States a TASTE of what the republicans will try to do!" and he ought to fully thank for for it at the announcement.

Then she can start planning for 2012 by acting all cool and supporting him now and as president and making a strong stand later.

The good Clinton supporters know this. And to those I can say. I look forward to good debates and a chance for Clinton and you supporters to gain my respect in 2012. Don't let these idiots fill your ranks later on!

The bad Clinton supporters know the gig is up or are in denial... Yet want to deal as much damage as possible as evidenced by their horrific posts here.

[juajen]

27. When we need your respect, we will ask for it.

Hope you're not holding your breath. BTW, there are no bad Clinton supporters. We are all fantastic, loyal and very good democrats. Obama supporters, OTOH, are rude, bullies and either bad democrats or manipulating republicans. Got that? Good.

[Window]

32. Oh no you didn't go there.

"...there are no bad Clinton supporters."

You sound like the inevitable Hillary when she said she was going to win it, and it would all be over by Feb. 5.

:rofl:

Oh, I get it now. You forgot your sarcasm thingy.

[elmerdem]

36. you don't get the irony

of your post, do you?

meant for juajen

[Zachstar]

40. No I dont get it. juajen

But you post did remind me of the style the Soviet party talked in.

This is the way they talked you see.

they said soviets were: Fantastic and Loyal soviets awaiting 1980 where there will be utopia apparently.

they said soviets were: They were all apparently very good Soviets.

they said the west was: The "dark forces" of the west are manipulating, rude, bullies.

And of course in the end everyone knew it was complete bullshit.

I STRONGLY suggest not using Soviet speak when you try that crap again.

And no this is not a "In soviet russia" joke.

[apocalypsehow]

50. Your post is the (unintentionally ) funniest thing I've read all day.

:rofl:

[Muzza]

8. Typical...

Such a fatalistic and grim analysis. I hope she dares to continue just to rile the likes of this journalist and others who feel compelled to decide this moniation process themselves. Whatever happened to due process and playing by the rules? The game is over when either one of them has 2025 delegates. Why all the urgent need to cut things short? Why? Why should just bow down and surrender? Becuase this guy and others said she should. She should stick to her commitment and stay the course til June. If she loses then, well so be it. But let the process takes its course. I am really tired of people wanting to intervene and push a decision onto others. Noone has any right to do that.

[GarbagemanLB]

11. 3 more months of this shit while McCain consolidates the GOP base is not good. She needs to go.

[cali]

12. Get used to it. He's right. She's done.

And more and more people in the party and even in her camp, are fully cognizant of her imminent demise. It's hardly only journalists. Check out what Kathleen Kennedy Townsend said to her. The game is not over only when one of them reaches 2025; it's over now that Hillary can't reach that number. And the need is that it's time to move on and fight JMac and the repukes. She won't be staying in until June if she loses either OH or TX. In fact, she'll be gone next week after losing TX. And I can see you despise the 1st amendment, but sorry, Alter has every right to express his opinion and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend has every right to tell Hill to get out now and get out gracefully.

[juajen]

25. There are millions more who want her to stay in.

You know, the people who are still contributing to her campaign and showing up at rallies, etc. What all of you Obamites are doing is bullying, plain and simple. You are all just bullies, and need to be treated as such. Obama also cannot reach that number without some of Hillary's delegates. It will be a brokered convention and then we will see.

[cali]

37. not enough. she's done. there is no way this goes to

a brokered convention if he beats her in TX or OH next week, and all indications are that he will win TX. The fat lady has started singing. Get used to it.

[Mooney]

17. The longer she goes on like this

the worse she makes it for herself. Dropping out is more of a dignity-saving measure than anything else at this point. But if her donors continue to support her and she wants to stay in, that's her right.

I can't help thinking though that if the situation were reversed, and Obama had lost a string of contests in the space of two weeks, he would have dropped out already.

[1awake]

20. yes your right.

She has every right to stay in till June. But if she does, he political career will be mostly over. Way before June, it will appear to most Democrats that she has her own desires before that of the party's or country's. I don't think she will do that.. she is to smart and has to much class. Hillary is a wonderful person.. she will not drag herself through months of a pointless campaign.

[Adelante]

21. 220 posts overnight - impressive piece work nt

[scheming daemons]

28. Proud2BAmurkin has to get his post count back up after the tomb-stoning....

....

[LiberalAndProud]

39. Moniation is a good word.

(It is what it is.)

[From The Left]

13. But Hillary Won't Bow Out

She would rather make a fool of herself, her husband and her supporters and fight all the way to Denver, despite the fact that the voters keep rejecting her for Barack Obama.

Somewhere along the way, Bill told he would deliver the White House to her if she stuck by him and damn it, nothing will give her an alternate ending.

[cali]

14. Nah. She'll be gone in a little over a week

she's not stupid enough to stay in if she loses TX or OH, and she's not nearly as tough as she pretends to be.

[H2O Man]

15. I think that

Andrea Mitchell was on target this morning on MSNBC, when she attributed Senator Clinton's weekend performance to the need to convince potential contributers to invest money in her campaign. It allows her the option of continuing until next Tuesday.

More interesting was the information about the growing amount of in-fighting in the Clinto campaign. Mitchell said that top guns are refusing to talk to one another, and are pointing the fingers of blame at those they believe are responsible for the utter failure of the Clinton camp to prepare for anything after Super Tuesday.

Mitchell said the rational people in the Clinton campaign are able to see that Hillary can still have a significant career in the US Senate. There is a strange sense of entitlement on the part of her supporters who think that is beneath Senator Clinton. I think Clinton herself is able to see that the US Senate is an important institution, and one in which she can work to achieve the goals she identified in this campaign.

[UALRBSofL]

16. The problem with this argument is

As Huckabee put it this morning, you can't get enough of the delegates to put you over the top, he and Hillary should stay in and go to the convention. He stated this morning it's good for the party's and, with all the exposure during the primaries it motivates more people to get engaged in the voting process then it has in past election cycles. Frankly, I agree with him.

[catgirl]

18. She's deluded herself into thinking she will win

And she's making women and democrats look bad.

[proud2BlibKansan]

19. Her campaign is trying to make sure Obama trips up

They seem to be working harder at that than at promoting their candidate.

[Adelante]

22. This is the thing

Imagine if she drew a distinction between "never quit" as it applies to fighting Kenneth Starr and the Republicans on the one hand, and fellow Democrats on the other?

This isn't happening. Hillary seems to have no problem behaving toward Democrats the way her Republican enemies behaved toward her. We spent 15 years defending her from Republicans only to have her become them. It's a heart breaker.

[cali]

24. Yep. That nails it.

And her hypocrisy about it all is the work of a real smear artist. She accuses Obama's campaign of Rovian tactics while she's actually the one engaged in it.

[Scurrilous]

26. K & R

:thumbsup:

[riverwalker]

29. The ridicule and patronising

of this weekend were very disturbing to me. "Shame on you" was like a scolding from a patronising angry step- mother. Unseemly and bizarre that another candidates success brought rage from her that she never expressed towards GWB. But the sarcastic ridicule of millions of her fellow democrats will resonate. The ridicule of hope and change are more revealing of her personal philosophy than a hundred debates. If she mocks the idea of hope & change, then she does not really believe things CAN change, and if she were elected, they won't.

[Medusa]

30. She's acted like she's a Queen and that her subjects are being

unruly by not bowing down and worshipping her.

[Window]

34. Exactly.

Peace:thumbsup:

[GumboYaYa]

31. Hillary is destroying the Clinton legacy and power base.

She is losing all credibility as she flip flops around looking for some way to slow Obama. It is really sad in some ways to see her and Bill reduced to this, but on the other hand, it is their bad decisions that put them in this spot.

I am just ready for her to go so we can focus on McCain

[ZinZen]

49. It is also pretty telling that the Clinton's are going

downhill when Bill and Chelsea are delivering speeches at strip malls and hiking trail paths while Obama is filling stadiums. The Clinton campaign is in complete disarray. This is not good for the Clinton legacy. But hey.. if they want to blow it.....

[Voice for Peace]

33. She's giving Obama lots of warmup practice for keeping his cool in the GE nt

[shaniqua6392]

35. So Alter is for disenfranchising voters?

There are many voters who have not had their turn. Maybe we should just all shut up about her dropping out until everyone has had their say. This would apply if Obama were not in the lead either. I would want him to stay in so that voters will be able to speak.

[cali]

38. There's little point in her staying in if she losesTX

or OH. In fact, there's no point in it. And frankly, as a voter in a late primary state, I'm used to not having my say, and it's never really troubled me. This was a very advantageous schedule for her, and she didn't get it done. And no, Alter is obviously not advocating for disenfranchisement of voters.

[democrank]

41. K & R

~PEACE~

[RememberWellstone]

42. Bull schnikkies

No way, not now..how do you get out of race you are in front of? Makes no sense.

[Unbowed]

43. I'm afraid I agree.

She's losing ground despite the last-ditch effort of negative attacks.

Time to hang it up before the public turns negative on her.

She's risking her reputation by feeding into the negative stereotypes that many Americans have about her. People have really started to like her in this campaign. She's risking her own political legacy and future by turning nasty and giving the impression she's more concerned about her own ambition than the party or the people.

[eridani]

44. Looks like someone besides me wants a brokered convention

I feel so less alone!

[AX10]

45. Alter is a known hater of the Clinton's.

How about you shut up John, you worthless piece of horse crap that you are and let the voters decide this thing.

[question everything]

47. Jonathan Alter and the rest of the men at Newsweek/MSNBC have lost any credibility

to say anything about Clinton after the coronation issue that followed the Iowa caucuses.

These men have been harping on Clinton's voice, hair, makeup, clothes since day one. They clearly have had problems with her candidacy and have been swooning over Obama. Their credibility is the same as Peggy Noonan's or Ann Coulter's.

[David Zephyr]

48. The insult is that millions of us feel compelled to pretend there is still the hint of a contest.

Hillary was a good candidate.

Barack was the amazing candidate...and the one that took the high road at every turn.

[apocalypsehow]

51. Excellent column. K & R.

n/t