Hillary may only gain 9 delegates in Ohio, none in Texas ... link

[Alhena]

We've all seen the articles discussing the difficult delegate situation for Hillary in Texas with its idiosyncratic rules. But this analysis predicts that a 7 point Hillary win in Ohio (a pretty generous estimate for Hillary at this point, considering Obama tends to beat the polls in primaries where independents can vote - see Wisconsin and Virginia) would only net her 9 additional delegates.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/02/25/delegate-counting-in-texas-and-ohio.html

The article states that Obama's lead among delegates is 99, but that includes superdelegates. Considering just pledged delegates, his lead is around 150 delegates. If we assume that Vermont and Rhode Island will cancel each other out (actually Obama's lead in Vermont is bigger and Vermont assigns additional delegates to the winner so he'll probably net a few delegates) and that Texas will be about a wash delegate-wise, then Hillary may only gain 9 delegates on Tuesday, under the most likely scenario at this point.

9 delegates is obviously not very much when there's a 150 delegate deficit to make up. But that's the math Hillary is facing now.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. The only way Clinton can win this thing is if Obama implodes.

Looking at what happened over the weekend, the one imploding is Hillary.

[MadBadger]

2. I think Obama wins Texas by as much as Hillary wins OH.

And hell get even more delegates cuz of the screwed up rules.

[damntexdem]

12. Texas has crazy, undemocratic rules.

But they Are the rules. And the Obama campaign is trying to maximize its gains here.

Well, that’s what happens when an experienced campaign comes up against an amateur effort, like Hillary’s. ;-)

[thevoiceofreason]

3. Texas will give Obama at least 10 more delegates.

HRC is in big trouble here.

[TexasObserver]

4. Hillary will lose Texas badly, and probably lose Ohio as well.

[lapfog_1]

9. If recent history counts for much...

but I think Obama wins Texas, but only by 3 to 4 points.

Hillary wins Ohio by 5 to 7.

The other states go for Obama, probably by blowouts again (60 - 40).

[TexasObserver]

10. I'll take Obama for the win in Texas by 8 or more points.

Don't know about Ohio.

[TAWS]

5. North Carolina will cancel out Pennsylvania

Her only option will be to demand that the Michigan and Florida delegates are seated, overturnning the results. That is never going to happen because that would make the party implode.

[lapfog_1]

8. And even they won't be enough to tie Obama in pledged delegates - n/t

[papau]

6. It is not just elected delegates - and super delegates should vote for most vote winner

As was stated by Obama last week

[lapfog_1]

7. Actually, hasn't Obama's lead in pledged delegates gone up

over the weekend. The Democrats abroad primary just did a recalculation and Obama gained like 1.5 delegates from that, plus I understand that one or two primary states have decided that Obama gets another 2 pledged delegates (1 each) from them. So the lead should be 153 or so.

But, yeah, she needs to win TX, OH and PA by blowouts to even get close in pledged delegates. And that isn't happening.

[damntexdem]

11. And Obama could net some delegates here in Texas.

Especially based on the caucuses, for which his campaign is very-well organized. And he might even from the primary itself.

[Occam Bandage]

13. If that happens, it's absolutely over for her.

[Scurrilous]

14. Sounds good!

:thumbsup: