I think Obama and Clinton will split the March 4 primaries

[book_worm]

I think Obama will win Texas and Vermont and that HRC will win Ohio and Rhode Island. Then it's on to Pennsylvania, with a few contests along the way.

[julialnyc]

1. I think Obama will take 3

TX, RI and VT

[rox63]

10. I think RI will probably go for Clinton, and VT will go to Obama

I think both TX and OH will be close. But if Hillary doesn't win at least one of them by a significant margin (double digits), she won't gain much. Certainly not enough to catch up with Obama in pledged delegates.

[grantcart]

26. Press Release from the Clinton campaign

Rhode Island,

Officially known as State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations is the state that is most equipped to decide who should be our next president for the following reasons:

-Rhode Island was the first of the thirteen original American colonies to declare independence from British rule

-Rhode Island is one of the most reliably Democratic states during presidential elections, regularly giving the Democratic nominees one of their best showings. In 1980, Rhode Island was one of only 6 states to vote against Ronald Reagan

-In the 1984 Reagan landslide, Rhode Island provided Walter Mondale with his 3rd best performance

- Rhode Island was the Democrats' best state in 1988 and 2000 and 2nd best in 1996 and 2004

-Rhode Island gave John Kerry a greater than 20 percentage point margin of victory (the third highest of any state) with 59.4% of its vote

-All but three of Rhode Island's 39 cities and towns voted for the Democratic candidate

-The Fox show Family Guy takes place in a fictional town in Rhode Island named Quahog

-The nautical nature of Rhode Island's geography pervades its culture. Newport Harbor, in particular, holds many pleasure boats

-A now defunct professional football team, the Providence Steam Roller won the 1928 NFL title

-Fort Adams, on Narragansett Bay, was the setting for the finish of Eco-Challenge 1995.

If Sen. Obama is not able to win in this one of the most Deomocratic States of the Union which is famous for its cultural, athletic, ecological leadership then he should to the party and the country a favor and quit the race

[rox63]

37. It's also the smallest state in the country

You can drive across the state in under an hour. That doesn't put it a particularly influential position. If Hillary is planning her campaign around winning RI, she is the delusional one. :crazy:

[cloudythescribbler]

If Hillary loses either OR if she wins both by narrow margins, then basically it's game set & match

[cloudythescribbler]

38. If Hillary loses either OR if she wins both by narrow margins, then basically it's game set & match

[scheming daemons]

2. Um... if they split, she'll concede......

...according to Carville and her husband.


.....or are you moving the goalposts again?

[book_worm]

6. I'm an Obama supporter who wrote what I think will happen

why the snarky reply to me about moving the goalposts again?
p.s.
I don't think Hillary will concede.

[scheming daemons]

12. Sorry... my bad.... sounded like a Hillbot lowering expectations.....

;-)

[HeraldSquare212]

25. They have started doing that.

Now they're saying she just can't lose both TX and OH - like Gov. Cozine did this morning.

[democrattotheend]

3. Sounds about right

And I am not sure what happens after that. I think if Clinton loses both Texas and Ohio, she will be pressured to drop out. But if it's a split decision who knows?

[Drunken Irishman]

4. If they split, Clinton is done.

She can't afford a split to move on. She needs both Texas and Ohio to even create the illusion she's still in this race. Without both, especially if they're not by wide margins, she will become the Democrats version of Mike Huckabee.

[RiverStone]

36. Very true - and Bill Clinton and James Carville both agree with you...

Really - if she loses TX alone it's history. Bill and James said she MUST win both TX and OH to stay in the race.

[Greyskye]

5. If they split then Obama has won

She has to do better then that to stay in the race.

[DJ13]

7. I believe Obama also takes Rhode Island

Doesnt matter though, if Clinton can do no better than split Texas and Ohio she will be finished.

[GodlessBiker]

15. Is RI more like MA or CT?

[Little Star]

28. RI is like MA. Definatly not like VT or CT.

[grantcart]

29. Press Release from the Clinton campaign

Rhode Island,

Officially known as State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations is the state that is most equipped to decide who should be our next president for the following reasons:

-Rhode Island was the first of the thirteen original American colonies to declare independence from British rule

-Rhode Island is one of the most reliably Democratic states during presidential elections, regularly giving the Democratic nominees one of their best showings. In 1980, Rhode Island was one of only 6 states to vote against Ronald Reagan

-In the 1984 Reagan landslide, Rhode Island provided Walter Mondale with his 3rd best performance

- Rhode Island was the Democrats' best state in 1988 and 2000 and 2nd best in 1996 and 2004

-Rhode Island gave John Kerry a greater than 20 percentage point margin of victory (the third highest of any state) with 59.4% of its vote

-All but three of Rhode Island's 39 cities and towns voted for the Democratic candidate

-The Fox show Family Guy takes place in a fictional town in Rhode Island named Quahog

-The nautical nature of Rhode Island's geography pervades its culture. Newport Harbor, in particular, holds many pleasure boats

-A now defunct professional football team, the Providence Steam Roller won the 1928 NFL title

-Fort Adams, on Narragansett Bay, was the setting for the finish of Eco-Challenge 1995.

If Sen. Obama is not able to win in this one of the most Deomocratic States of the Union which is famous for its cultural, athletic, ecological leadership then he should to the party and the country a favor and quit the race

[Hutzpa]

8. Heres to hoping

:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:

:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:

:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:

:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:

:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:

:spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray: :spray:

[Coexist]

9. I read that Hillary is still pretty far ahead in RI

why do you think he will win it? Genuine question.

[book_worm]

11. I wrote that I think Hillary will win RI and Obama will win VT.

[Coexist]

16. darn it - I asked in the wrong part

I meant to ask a responder, not the OP - Sorry.

[rox63]

13. I'm an Obama supporter, and I think Hillary will win RI

It's politically very much like Massachusetts, its bigger neighbor to the north. Obama will definitely win VT. And I think he may take both TX and OH. But they will be close races.

[mohc]

14. Based on the latest polling

I think Obama is going to take OH, TX, and VT while Clinton takes RI. The gap is just too narrow in Ohio and has been trending in Obama's direction. He is well ahead in Vermont and in a dead heat already in Texas. The latest poll from Rhode Island shows the gap large enough that Clinton will probably be able to hold on to her lead there, but my guess is that it will be her last and only win after Super Tuesday. Losing Ohio and Texas by any margin would be nothing short of the death knell for the campaign.

[WyLoochka]

17. Obama will win Wyoming

On 3/8.

[loveangelc]

18. No, its over for hillary if she loses TX and OH. I promise you it will be.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

19. It could happen.

But a split means Obama wins the nomination.

[NJSecularist]

20. Rhode Island is her firewall state

If she loses Ohio, Texas and Vermont, but wins Rhode Island, she will be able to move on.

[loveangelc]

22. lol I hpe you're joking

[grantcart]

30. Press Release from the Clinton campaign

Rhode Island,

Officially known as State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations is the state that is most equipped to decide who should be our next president for the following reasons:

-Rhode Island was the first of the thirteen original American colonies to declare independence from British rule

-Rhode Island is one of the most reliably Democratic states during presidential elections, regularly giving the Democratic nominees one of their best showings. In 1980, Rhode Island was one of only 6 states to vote against Ronald Reagan

-In the 1984 Reagan landslide, Rhode Island provided Walter Mondale with his 3rd best performance

- Rhode Island was the Democrats' best state in 1988 and 2000 and 2nd best in 1996 and 2004

-Rhode Island gave John Kerry a greater than 20 percentage point margin of victory (the third highest of any state) with 59.4% of its vote

-All but three of Rhode Island's 39 cities and towns voted for the Democratic candidate

-The Fox show Family Guy takes place in a fictional town in Rhode Island named Quahog

-The nautical nature of Rhode Island's geography pervades its culture. Newport Harbor, in particular, holds many pleasure boats

-A now defunct professional football team, the Providence Steam Roller won the 1928 NFL title

-Fort Adams, on Narragansett Bay, was the setting for the finish of Eco-Challenge 1995.

If Sen. Obama is not able to win in this one of the most Deomocratic States of the Union which is famous for its cultural, athletic, ecological leadership then he should to the party and the country a favor and quit the race

[Greyskye]

31. kudo's!

[TheDonkey]

33. lol, RI is one of those big blue state firewalls that will suggest she can WIN the GE

I agree

[TexasObserver]

21. nah, she's finished next Tuesday

They'll have carted her off in a strait jacket by April 22nd.

[cali]

23. nope. the clinton camp knows that if the lose either TX or OH

it's over. they haven't even made plans past march 4. And he's now only 4 to 11 pts back in Ohio. I think she'll only win RI.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

24. Remember that Hillary has to win every remaining state by 57%

just to even up the pledged delegate count. A total less than that in any state will only increase the percentage she has to win the remaining states by. Breaking even in OH and/or TX will push her required win percentage for the remaining states up into the 60's.

[Independent-Voter]

27. Fair enough. RI looks solid for HRC, and Ohioians are known to pick the wrong candidate (see: Bush)

[TheDonkey]

32. If there is a split, the primary season will be over.

[Dinger]

34. Sounds Good To Me

[RamboLiberal]

35. You may be right - but she needs both and by big margins

or she will be more behind in delegates. Of course she may go on and try to lead this in to a convention fight which I think she's going to lose. But she may well split the party.

Even if she prevailed in a convention fight there's no way in hell she'd win the general cause I can't see African-Americans and many other Obama supporting and voting for her. w/o them she may even lose some battleground blue/purple states.