If Senator Obama gets the nod, can he pull if off?

[11 Bravo]

Oh, my dear sweet Lord, I hope so. The stakes are too high. Even 4 years of a McCain presidency would send this country spiraling even deeper into the shit. Those on either side in the Dem primary who will not vote for the nominee if it's not their first choice can kiss my ass.
I've been an Edwards supporter from day one, but he's not going to be on the ticket. I also have probably not made many friends pointing out, what, at least in my perception, has been the general assholery of several Obama supporters.
But, for me at least, all that goes away if he gets the nomination. I will offer my support and cast my vote fot the candidate set forth by the Democratic party. If you can't say the same, enjoy your stay, because you will soon be asked to leave.

[Hawkeye-X]

1. Yep. I predict a 40+ state sweep

I'm daring to say at least 48 state sweep, with exception of MAYBE Idaho and Wyoming, and that's just being optimistic, but realistically, perhaps 40 states.

[Tesha]

21. He will not win a single state in Dixie.

Between demographics, voter caging, and
ethnic cleansing, he won't win a single
Southern State. (But neither would Hillary.)

Tesha

[The River]

28. He'll Take Virginia

and more.
I doubt ethnic cleansing (aka genocide) will
play a part in it.

[Tesha]

44. Louisianna was effectively "ethnically cleansed". And yes, it could be considered genocide. (NT)

[elizm]

32. YES he can. And I live in Dixie. nt

[dchill]

48. "voter caging" - gee, that sounds awful...

It would probably be illegal, except under the Bush version of constitutional law.

[Tesha]

50. Prob'ly! (NT)

[tekisui]

2. Yes. Yes. Yes.

He can. If we all, as Democrats get behind him. He can do very well in the Fall.

[democrank]

3. Yes, he can.

~PEACE~

[backscatter712]

11. Yes, WE can!

FTFY.

He's proved to be smart, charismatic, and very capable of standing on his own and fighting, even when the poo-flinging is thick.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

4. If he can't, noone can

Obama's greatest strength in the GE will be his broad appeal.

[blogslut]

5. Yes

Absolutely

[TAWS]

6. Winning the General Election will be easier than winning the nomination n/t

[Alamom]

34. No...it won't. nm

[movonne]

7. You really think Mc Cain will win?? I feel he has as much of a chance

to win as Dole did...

[movonne]

8. You really think Mc Cain will win?? I feel he has as much of a chance

to win as Dole did...

[11 Bravo]

18. Bob Dole received over 39,000,000 votes in 1992, 37.4% of the vote.

Bill Clinton received approximately 43% of the vote total, and garnered about 6,000,000 more votes than Dole. Had Ross Perot not gotten 20,000,000 (18.9%) of all votes, a President Dole could easily have happened. You may find that to be a faint chance, but it's more of a chance than I'm willing to take.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. You're Confusing Dole With Bush Pere

Dole ran in 96...

[IndianaGreen]

9. Obama fought off Bill and Hillary Clinton, McCain, and Nader at the same time!

You can take it to the bank that Obama not only can win in November, but that he will win in a landslide.

[elizm]

35. You just made me smile. :) nt

[Egnever]

10. Its we not he

and yes we can!

[Lerkfish]

12. I believe he can, simply by the numbers.

judging from the democratic turnout vs. the republican turnout in the primaries. The disparity will level some in the GE, but I don't doubt there will be a tidal wave, diebold notwithstanding.

[redqueen]

13. Yes. I didn't think he could, months ago...

but since then, I've seen some impressive things.

[northernsoul]

14. I truly think so - YES

I don't want to be overconfident, but I truly believe he's our best shot at winning back the White House.

[Guava Jelly]

15. I would bet my life he could!

Not that I have one..

[stahbrett]

16. Obama will be the Democratic version of Reagan

Big win, big mandate, with better policies. :)

[sniffa]

17. Yes, by a landslide

Red states in play, and coattails.

[NC_Nurse]

19. I believe he can. I wouldn't be supporting him if I didn't think he'd win.

He's got the momentum.
He's got the organization.
His campaign has been on target since "day one".
Democrats are tired of this shitty admin and ready to toss these jerks out.

Fired up and ready to go!!! Gobama!

[liberalnurse]

20. Sorry to break the bad news

but Obama is not going to win the General because the Democrats are split as the Hillary voters will stay home, the republican voters won't vote for him in the General as they will fall in line as they always do. The college kids will be bored with the hope-change sermon and go to the beach that Tuesday. They won't be as enthusiastic when the push is needed in the General..
School and working a part-time job will take up any free time.

Obama will be old news in the General and certainly take a huge beating by the media which is driven by republican power.

[iamjoy]

24. I'd Ask You For Some Grapes

but I think they might be sour.

[Debi]

25. The non-party voters will come out and vote for Obama

the same way they have been in the primaries/caucuses.

Nice slam on the young people in our country - They seem to be doing just fine right now.

Those college kids stayed in Iowa over their Christmas Break organizing and eventually caucusing for Obama - they are now delegates to the conventions - on the central committee and planning committees all over the state. They are just beginning and I am VERY proud of them.

You go ahead and be negative about our future leaders. Whatever works for you.

[liberalnurse]

45. This is my sincere opinion

of the projected outcome with Obama as the Presidential Candidate.

No sour grapes at all. Just my insightful assessment.

[cali]

29. no they won't, nurse. All indications are that Hillary supporters

will overwhelmingly support Obama when he's the nominee. I know that breaks your little heart, but that's just too bad. We don't need the repuke voters- though some are clearly going to vote for him, and we have a decent shot at indies. The college kids are likely to vote in even greater numbers than 2004. For them, Obama is their candidate and they're invested. And Obama is good at handling incoming, look how he's destroyed dear hilly. He has an excellent chance. Now don't choke on all that bile of yours.

[11 Bravo]

40. I hope you're wrong about the Hillary supporters. But if you're not ...

then this country is well and truly fucked. I'm hanging my hat on the presumed fact that DU is not representative of the general public, and that while all the shit that both Clinton and Obama supporters have eaten in this forum may have turned them off to the opposing candidate, the fact is that this place represents about 1/30 of one percent of the electorate.

[murielm99]

47. I'm a Clinton supporter, but I hope you are wrong.

If he gets the nomination, we all need to vote. Don't let a few assholes for Obama influence your vote or take it away from you. If nothing else, think of the Supreme Court.

[Barack_America]

22. Look at the way he's run his campaign.

It has been BRILLIANT.

-A clear and constant message
-Tremendous grassroots support and organization
-Overwhelming presence on the internet
-Record-breaking fundraising
-Incredible outreach to young voters and other voting groups that don't often participate in Dem primaries

If he can run his White House the way he has run his campaign, he'll be a hell of a President, IMO.

[RichardRay]

23. Wyoming for Obama!!

Or, at least my corner. Teton County repudiated Bush/Cheney in the last general and came within 1,000 votes of sending a Democrat to the House. I admit it's a long shot, but we just might be able to do it.

[quinnox]

27. McCain has a big advantage

I will be truly surprised if Obama can beat McCain. McCain is the perfect candidate against an Obama for the republicans.

[cali]

33. lol! he couldn't be worse for the repukes

He's old. He doesn't stump well or debate well. He's tied himself to bush. he's flip flopped. he's got scandal problems and money/FEC problems.

[Libface]

42. Public perception of McCain will be hard to change.

My brother loves Obama and thinks McCain is a moderate so it won't be so bad if he wins and he'd rather have McCain than that EVIL SHREW Hillary. He's 30 and despite not making any effort to be informed, incredibly intelligent. Obama supporters, PLEASE do not underestimate McCain. Do not spend your time fighting with Hillary supporters, I'm BEGGING you. Spend your time formulating attacks on McCain. He's a celebrated war hero. He has always been "friendly" with the dems. He has a lot going for his image that has been shaped over many years and you have to remember that most people don't pay much attention to the news and they don't make informed voting decisions. PLEASE do not get overconfident about McCain. I will support either democrat in the GE, but my gut is telling me that something is really weird about how the media has been pushing for Obama. It doesn't mean I don't like him, it just means I'm worried and I think my worries are valid considering the past 7 years. Don't attack me, I'm not trying to burst any bubbles, I really just want the Dem to win and arrogance is not the way to do it. I think despite Hillary's negatives, for a lot of people it would come down to "I liked the Clinton years better than the Bush years" so I feel a little more comfortable about her going against McCain. I can't picture what would happen with Obama, so I am just voicing that his supporters' overconfidence is at times worrying. Logic tells me that the Dem should win, but logic doesn't seem to mean much post-2000.

[cali]

46. Of course he has to be taken seriously and fought seriously

but I'll say what I've said since it became likely McCain would be the nominee: If we can't win against him in this environment, we should hang it up. Obama is a fighter with a tight organization and I think they're working on taking McCain down, as we speak.

[jillan]

30. The way he has handled this whole 'anti-american' label that have pinned him with,

the more I am beginning to wonder.

Maybe instead of throwing a tizzy today, he could have acted like a grownup and put out a press
release explaining how he was honoring the county he was visiting.
But no - instead we get more ObamaDrama.

[Dinger]

31. I Just Wonder If The Kid-Gloves Treatment For Obama Will Continue In The General Election?

Are all Obama supporters 100% confident he will get the same treatment in the general if he gets the nom?

[damonm]

36. Certainly

Obama will take all the blue states from '04, and quite possibly pick up VA (VERY much in play), LA (who's gonna go GOP there after Katrina?), MO (coming into play more each day; McCaskill's VERY popular), and CO. KS is also a possibility, as the popular Democratic Governor there is a big Obama supporter.

Several other southern states may be in play as well, given how Obama's energized the African-American bloc. Of the border states with large Hispanic populations, the GOP stance on immigration will put NM in play. CA is HARD blue, TX is solid red, AZ is pretty strongly red (solid, IMO, with McCain as candidate).

So, if I'm right, Obama's locked into 252 EVs, with VA's 13 and LA's 9 putting him over the top with 274 EVs. Throw in MO & CO's 11 & 9 respectively, and we're looking at 294 EVs for Obama, 244 for McCain.

I feel good.

[Megahurtz]

37. YES HE CAN!

[earthlover]

38. Yes he can! Here's why....

1) McCain is his ideal opponent. Everything that worked against Hillary will work MORE against McCain. McCain was even MORE an advocate for Iraq. It's not just Democrats who oppose Iraq now, it is the general public. McCain is even MORE tied to the old way of doing things than Hillary, he even looks old. What's more, McCain is starting out following Hillary's failed game plan. Bring him on!

2) Obama will suck up most of the independent voters who otherwise would have voted MCCain. McCain is no super-star. He is known as a maverick, and against Hillary he would do well among independents. However, Obama's strength is stronger in McCain's strong suit. Again, bring him on!

3) Bush's poll numbers are dismal. This will hurt McCain, especially because of all the butt-kissing McCain has been doing the past few years. Bring him on!

4) I know this may be hard to believe right now, but once the Democratic Party nominee is made, the party is going to unite behind Obama or Clinton. Nader is not going to be a factor, he won't even be an asterisc to this campaign.

5) Obama's campaign will lead to a huge turnout among Democrats. This will be partly because of the youth vote, partly because of independents and cross-over Republicans, and also partly because the African American vote turnout will be higher than usual. A big turnout favors the Democrats, across the board.

6) Republicans are already doing research into running against a black or a woman. They are keeping it quite secret, but I read today that they will be facing a formidable challenge, since in today's world it is difficult to attack a woman or a black on sexual or racial basis. So, if Obama is the nominee, he will benefit from this. Yes, racists will not vote for a black candidate, but they tend to vote Republican anyhow. So no big loss.

7) Obama's team has demonstrated a quick response to attacks. This has really impressed me.

8) Obama is very skilled at getting people organized and motivated at the grass roots level. This has always been what has been make-or-break for Democrats.

9) Obama's message and his demeanor is hard to attack. He doesn't seem to be the type of guy who gets flustered easily. He won't sigh like Gore did. He won't wait weeks if he is Swiftboated, he has already demonstrated that.

10) He is a likeable guy. We cringe that Bush was elected partly because he was likeable (at the time). Well, isn't this the best revenge on the Republicans? The guy has a likeable smile....he looks presidential even.....so....maybe we all have some things about him we don't like....but he sure beats whatever McCain has to offer. Isn't it nice not to complain about the other side having the guy people liked? Actually, people like McCain....if we didn't have someone like Obama who was also likeable, we could be sunk.

11) Obama will be smart enough to get a VP who balances his weaknesses. Someone, preferably, with either experience or foreign policy expertise, or both. Someone like Wes Clark would greatly strengthen Obama's ticket. (with the added benefit that the VP could be doing some "attack work" leaving Obama to sail with his positive message

In summary, there are lots of reasons to believe Obama can win and win BIG! Yes, he will be up against the slime machine who will attack any democrat's patriotism, etc.... He already is beating McCain in the polls nationally and in key states. And that is before the whole force of the united Democratic Party is behind him to provide the legwork to make his presidency happen! It is, after all, not up to Obama....it is UP TO US!!!!!!!!!! And that, not surprisingly, is part of his message of hope.

[UndertheOcean]

39. what do you mean "if he gets the Nod"

[11 Bravo]

41. I don't offer dictionary skills. It was fairly straight forward.

You appear to be the only individual struggling to comprehend the meaning.

[Warren DeMontague]

43. I think odds are much better for him than for Hillary if she gets the nomination.

The fact of the matter is, Hillary has very high negatives with a large section of the population. Her numbers are not going to go up. At best we could see a replay of the last two elections- maybe she could eke out a victory over McCain, maybe not.

The thing about Obama is, the more people see of him, the more they get to know him, the more they like him. Shit-flinging on GDP aside, the guy is an extremely inspirational speaker and leader. I think he could redraw the electoral map and win big.

I think there's been, unfortunately, a tremendous amount of assholery from supporters of BOTH candidates. If you don't see HRC people being flaming ass-tards, you're not paying attention. Couple that with a sense of righteous angry indignation from those who bought the Hillary campaign meme about how the nomination that she may well lose was "inevitable", that she was somehow automatically "entitled" to it.

(And I didn't start out for Obama, either. I wanted Al Gore to run, then I was backing Chris Dodd.)

I stay away from this place most of the time, it's become so fucking noxious.

That said, like you, I will support our nominee. Absolutely.

[TexasObserver]

49. Yes. Obama will win 35 states or more.