Obama Now Likely to Win 10 out of remaining 16 Contests

[Dems Will Win]

TX - Obama
OH - Tied or Clinton
RI - Clinton
VT - Obama
WY - Obama
MS - Obama
PA - Clinton
Guam - Clinton
IN - Obama (New Poll O 40, C 25)
NC - Obama
WV - Clinton
KY - Clinton
OR - Obama
MT - Obama
SD - Obama
PR - Obama (Banana Republic, Gov. Has Endorsed Obama)

The end result will be Obama has about 1750 pledged delegates and Clinton about 1525. It takes 2025 to win. So Obama will need 275 out of the 400 remaining Superdelegates to win and Clinton will need 500 out of that same 400.

Do the math.

You can check the upcoming delegate numbers here:

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html

Full disclosure: I am a political consultant for local Democrats.

[dchill]

1. If Obama wins Ohio...

the rest is moot.

[ORDem]

20. I'd like to "moot" Hillary too. n/t

[Alhena]

2. Deleted- original post edited

[Dems Will Win]

6. I think because the governor has endorsed Obama and has the only

machine in the Dem Party, and it is a caucus, Obama is likely to take all 55 delegates in PR.

You would have to raise your hand against the governor in a public caucus and PR is a weird situation with strange parties for independence, etc.

I'm saying, and others have too, the Obama is now likely to get all 55 from PR. Clinton will not be viable (15%) anywhere.

[Johnny__Motown]

3. MEET ME IN GUAM AND LET'S HAVE A REAL DEBATE

wow that would be fun

[Levgreee]

5. hahah funny

and after that, MEET ME IN PUERTO RICO! ENOUGH OF THE SPEECHES AND THE BIG RALLIES!


Then, MEET ME IN EASTER ISLAND, AND WE'LL HAVE THE REAL DEBATE! FOR REAL!


Where, in the world, is *deep voice* Hillary Rodham Clinton.

[RiverStone]

17. Just how far back can she move the goal posts?

Guam would take them out of the stadium! :)

[K Gardner]

29. Isn't the ocean back there somewhere? We're all going to need life rafts.

[ORDem]

18. LOL! n/t

[Window]

24. LMAO!

:rofl:

[racaulk]

28. That's not right!

:rofl:

[ruggerson]

4. I'll be surprised if Hillary gets more than 30% of the vote in VT

[Dems Will Win]

7. A poll was 66-33 Obama so you are close!

[IDemo]

8. Guam matters! woo hoo!!

[apocalypsehow]

9. Your math hates women.

"Facts are stupid things...."

[Dems Will Win]

11. It's only 500 out of 400 - she can do it!

[speedoo]

10. "....and Clinton will need 500 out of that same 400."

I like this lead in to your punchline.

If one were speaking, one would say this and then pause, letting the reality sink in.

Excellent post, thanks. K&R.

[TheWraith]

12. It looks suspiciously like we have a nominee.

Yee hah.

[grantcart]

13. I agree except that

the trend of superdelegate defection will continue and it will be even more difficult

[Tatiana]

14. I agree. Only I think Obama has a shot at winning WV. n/t

[theHandpuppet]

38. Not if my vote will make a difference

I think WV will go Clinton but to be honest, our primary is in May so there's going to be some apathy at having such a late primary.

[jgraz]

15. This is great! Now I know which states are significant and which aren't

I can finally start erasing those maps!

[Bicoastal]

16. Question--will Hillary still continue, then, if she loses Texas but wins Ohio?

[Warren Stupidity]

26. She shouldn't and probably won't.

She not only has to win next week, she actually has to win big in order to end up at the convention with more pledged delegates than Obama. While she will probably stay in with two narrow victories, a defeat, and especially a large defeat in either state should result in hre graceful exit. I'm sure she has been hearing this from political leaders outside her campaign since super tuesday.

[K Gardner]

30. I don't think the party will "let her". Not if she wants a job when its over.

[D23MIURG23]

35. Good question.

My guess is that she will, but my crystal ball isn't special.

[ORDem]

19. Isn't the term "banana republic" sexist??

:silly:

[dailykoff]

21. Oh please. This is just politics.

She's winning hearts and minds and that's what matters!

:crazy:

[The Anti-Bush]

22. GoBama!

I tried arguing this with my dad last night. He doesn't get it... any of it. He thinks Hillary is already the nominee. Of course, he was pretty drunk when he called.

[Window]

23. Thank you sharing this.

Peace:thumbsup:

[harun]

25. It may not look like it now but come April, PA will GOBAMA !!!

[Dems Will Win]

27. I agree this list was from current polling, which as we see, can change quickly

[Infinite Hope]

31. Obama will win TX by 15-20% and Ohio by 10%. n/t

[IndyOp]

32. What new Indiana poll?!?! I'm in Indiana and I haven't seen a poll with Obama

looking this good... :shrug:

[CalGator]

33. there's this one

40-25 Obama. Still a lot of undecideds in it, obviously.

http://www.news-tribune.net/local/local_story_056160830.html

[IndyOp]

34. Thanks! (n/t)

[donheld]

36. Oh boy

Your keyboard to gods CPU.

[Guava Jelly]

37. Ouch

just ouch

[Glimmer of Hope]

39. I hope this is over soon. It has been a little surreal and stressful for me.

[catgirl]

40. I think Obama will win PA

and possibly WV too.

[polichick]

41. Definitely PA! nt