Obama’s Support Grows Broader, New Poll Finds

[davidinalameda]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/26/us/politics/26poll.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin

In the past two months, Senator Barack Obama has built a commanding coalition among Democratic voters, with especially strong support among men, and is now viewed by most Democrats as the candidate best able to beat Senator John McCain in the general election, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

After 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, capped by a winning streak in 11 contests over the last two weeks, Mr. Obama has made substantial gains across most major demographic groups in the Democratic Party, including men and women, liberals and moderates, higher and lower income voters, and those with and without college degrees.

But there are signs of vulnerability for Mr. Obama, of Illinois, in this national poll: While he has a strong edge among Democratic voters on his ability to unite and inspire the country, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York is still viewed by more Democrats as prepared for the job of president. And while he has made progress among women, he still faces a striking gender gap: Mr. Obama is backed by two-thirds of the Democratic men and 45 percent of the women, who are equally divided in their support between the two candidates. White women remain a Clinton stronghold.

[dmallind]

1. It's really a question that comes down to this

If we assume, as is probably true, that white women - especially the woefully named but politically valuable "soccer moms" - will be less likely to vote D if it's Obama rather than Clinton, will that loss be made up by the also axiomatic gains in independents, changeable Republicans, young voters and increased black voter turnout where Obama leads?

I have to say that yes it will - the primary turnout demonstrates that, as do the current polls and head to head matchups.

The one thing that gives me more hope than most is the Dem primary turnout, and especially the crossover for Obama in those. While a small amount is undoubtedly tactical voting, and another chunk right leaners who will eventually "go home" to vote Rep in November, it would be absolutely silly to imagine that people will vote in primaries but not in GEs, when all the history we have and all the logic in the world shows that turnout is going to be much higher in the general. Assuming Obama keeps only HALF of the new deomgraphics who voted for him in the primaries, once we scale up the Dem primary turnout to normal GE levels we get a pretty solid chance he'll cruise to the WH.

[cloudythescribbler]

2. The "gender gap" is one reason I think it would be politic for Obama to pick a woman for VP ...

I have suggested Boxer, but some complain that, if they win, the Governator will be able to replace a Democratic Senator with one of his own (but probably not for long, however).

BTW, for McCain, he probably will need to strengthen the support among the evangelical rightwing, which is absolutely CRUCIAL to any Repug victory, which hopefully and probably (in my guesstimation) won't happen in November.

(Confession: I was SURE the Democrats would NOT be able to take back BOTH Houses in 2006 -- but they did it!)

[dmallind]

3. Trouble is he needs some foreign policy cred too

And some "tough guy" cred too. Whether he SHOULD need those things is irrelevant - I don't think I'm stating things most political observers would say are not important.

That makes it tough to find a woman who qualifies (again, what is is not what should be) and the only one who immediately springs to mind - Albright - is constitutionally disqualified.

I'm guessing he goes with a Richardson or Clark if they would do it.

Then again I guessed HRC would win in the end, so I'm not exactly infallible either.

[oviedodem]

5. You are correct and I would love Sebelius BUT because

of how the RW has so infused us with "war on terror" he would need a guy like Clark; I don't think Richardson fits the strentgh adjective.

[lligrd]

6. I've Suggested Boxer Too

There is a ticket I would love to vote for. As for the Gropenator, even if he does pick a Repug, it is likely to be a moderate one.

[ginnyinWI]

9. how about Janet Napolitano?

I saw her on TV last night--very articulate, very compelling. And she's from a red state in the west--Arizona.

[psychopomp]

4. There is still more room

Come in, we have cookies!

[Voice for Peace]

7. how about Jim Webb as vp nt

[Voice for Peace]

8. How is Hillary prepared for the job of president any more than Obama?

"Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York is still viewed by more Democrats as prepared for the job of president."

My theory about this:
(1) because she keeps saying that she is
(2) she knows her way around the White House
(3) People believe this mainly because they know Bill will be there with her,
and that gives them a more secure feeling than the unknown of Obama.
People are afraid of the unknown, period.

I've seen nothing so far of her or her experience that gives me confidence she
is any more ready than Obama.

At any rate, it's kind of like first-time parents saying "I'm ready to be
a great parent." Anyone who has kids knows the folly of that. You never
know until you're actually there in the middle of it, and you have to learn
on your feet, no matter how well prepared you may be, and every day there
is a new surprise or challenge.

I have more confidence in Obama's ability to think on his feet and respond
with fresh awareness and intelligence, not so bogged down in the old
systems & rules of engagement. Truly, this is a huge difference for me
in the way I see the two candidates.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

10. Hillary's got a bigger gender gap than Obama, besides . . .

my wife loves him, my sister loves him, my mother loves hiim - even my grandmother (who voted for Reagan) loves him. It's just a bunch of old, white women driving this so-called gender gap. I'm sure they'd love to see a woman President in their lifetime, as would I. Just not THIS woman.
Anybody but Hillary!

Hillary will single-handedly destroy the democratic party and will hand the election over to the Rethugs, gift-wrapped. We can't let that happen.

GObama!

[Independent-Voter]

11. Exactly. Post-menopausal white women are the only support HRC has at this point

and that sure as hell is not going to win the primaries, much less the GE. Obama is the only sane choice for ya'll, IMO.

[union_maid]

12. Post-menopausal white woman for Obama here!

Just saying....I'm not the only one I know of those either...by a long shot.

[davidinalameda]

13. you go girl!

:rofl:

I met another PMWW for Obama on Saturday

[Medusa]

14. But Hillary can win the women over 80 vote!