Why Obama beating Clinton is a good thing for the Democratic Party

[ProfessorPlum]

If you ever read "Crashing the Gate", an excellent book by Markos Moulitsas and Jerome Armstrong, you will discover that one of the reasons that Democrats keep getting beat in election after election is the way that the party is organized and run out of DC. Local campaigns are controlled by high-paid Democratic consultants out of Washington (or else they don't get any party money), and these highly paid consultants continue to get their big paychecks whether they win or lose, election cycle after election cycle, year after year. It's fair to say that contributions to the Democratic party have for years funded this welfare system for DC consultants, who continue to land these cushy assignments and give rather poor (and cautious) advice.

The reach of these ineffective consultants includes the presidential campaigns (note the reek of well-proven loser Bob Shrum around every (and especially every losing) Democratic presidential campaign in the last 30 years). Their advice for years has been to focus on the very big states, the blue states, the possible swing states, and forget about relatively Republican states. This has not only been a losing strategy for the most part, but even where it might have won it has allowed the GOP to focus on gaming just a couple of states (Florida, Ohio) for the steal. But they continue to get paid.

Clinton's campaign has, not surprisingly, a lot of these highly-paid, welfare consultants in it, and as a result, her campaign has focused mainly on big and blue states, with a big knockout on Super Tuesday. The reports of what she has been paying these ineffectual leeches are incredible. But Obama survived Super Tuesday, and has been organizing in every state, big and small, red and blue, involving people who have been written off by the Democrats (and thus also by the Republicans) for years.

And THAT is why an Obama win will be so good for the Democratic party. He will have demonstrated that there is another way to win - a more energetic way, a more democratic way, a bolder and more appealing way - and his strategy will necessarily put more states in play in the general. People will be fired up. Their votes might even matter. In every state, not just Pennsylvania or Ohio or Florida.

Does Obama "deserve" to win the nomination? After all, Clinton has more experience, more insidership, more favors to call on from DC. She might even make better decisions for the country.

But Obama has out-hustled, out-organized, and out-smarted her. His money went to a smarter way to organize the ground game, that potentially involved every American in his campaign. And as a demonstrable refutation of the old way of doing business, it is a beacon of hope to all of us who want to do more with our contribution dollars than just make Bob Shrum and Mark Penn richer.

(Additional shout-outs to Dr. Dean, whose "50 state strategy" seems smarter every day.)

[Lerkfish]

1. agreed. this would be a victory of how the democratic party SHOULD function.

Howard Dean was the prophet of this movement, and its a better paradigm. The whole problem with the status quo is it allowed the party to be kingmakers instead of responsive to voters.

so, yes, this is exactly why I want Obama to win at this point. He wasn't my first or even second choice, but the machine beltway past practices have to be broken.

[flor de jasmim]

2. I believe this is what Edwards meant when he dropped out of the race ...

and spoke of it being a "historic" election. On the issues, he would have won, and he was instrumental in helping bring out voters, but no one has been able to match Obama on that.

[babylonsister]

3. Terrific post! Thank you for laying that out, ProfessorPlum.

I think Obama deserves the opportunity to prove how great he just might be. I'm optimistic myself.

[flpoljunkie]

9. David Wilhelm said that Obama offers us something more than a 50% plus 1 strategy to actually get

something done for this country. Wilhelm was in Ohio, and is the former head of the DNC and a former campaign manager for Bill Clinton. He was in a mighty chipper mood this morning. Apparently, he's seen the latest national poll numbers.

Obama offers us the chance for something different, and the American people seem more and more willing to sign on to his candidacy.

[babylonsister]

12. I'm fired up and ready to sign up on Tuesday!

OT, but I've missed you, and your pics! Glad to see you! :hug:

[flpoljunkie]

14. Glad to be back! Missed DU, as well.

[cloudythescribbler]

4. Obama's campaign is one of the modern political miracles of US electoral politics

I don't think there has been anything close to so successful and so well-pursued an insurgent candidacy anywhere since the 60s AT LEAST.

[ProfessorPlum]

6. Clearly, since he is a former ward organizer and neighborhood leader

from the Chicago area, he has learned a thing or two about this kind of organization. If I found out that he was behind it, I would support him even more, because this kind of engagement in the process was thought to be rather dead in this age of TV and the numbing (and dumbing) of America - much to the joy of the corporations.

A modern miracle, indeed.

[GodlessBiker]

5. And, his incredible ground-based network will be there for the fall.

[mopinko]

7. howard and barack- a match made in heaven

imho

[BlueManDude]

8. I would argue that we're not "getting beat in election after election"

On the presidential level yes but the party is doing pretty well otherwise and is in much better shape than the GOP.

Prez elections are not rational events. Hence Bush beats Gore after 8 years of peace and prosperity and Bush beats Kerry after clearly failing at the job. The GOP has an advantage in presidential elections which is why I think McCain has a 60% chance of being the next president. If Obama is the nominee however I expect the Dems to continue to make gains on the federal and state level. The GOP is becoming a regional party.

[ProfessorPlum]

16. Strange post

The GOP has beaten the Democrats in 5 out of the last 7 presidential races, and has held the majority in the House for 12 of the last 14 years, while controlling the Senate about half of that time. The Republicans appointed 7 of the 9 supreme court justices (and lots and lots of lower federal judges due to holding up Clinton appointees throughout the 90s) and have filled the department of justice with cronies who are willing to put people in jail for the crime of being Democrats. There is a mountain of evidence that they illegally stole Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004, and no end in sight to their disenfranchisement and suppression schemes. They are directly and unashamedly funded by the biggest, most powerful, and richest elements in our empire. I'd say the GOP, apart from the populace's horror at what has been done to the country in the last 8 years, is still in pretty good "shape".

"Prez elections are not rational events." Ok, I'm with you so far.

"Bush beats Gore". No, he didn't actually.

"Bush beats Kerry". Perhaps, though the crimes committed in 2004 have yet to be investigated.

"The GOP has an advantage in presidential elections". And why is that, do you suppose? Is it just a given fact, or are there REASONS for it? Could part of it be the behavior of Democrats, or does the GOP just have some magical hold over the electoral college? Could the Democrats change their behavior and reduce or eliminate that advantage, or is there nothing they could do (such as improving their organization, as Obama has done).

"McCain has a 60% chance of being the next president" Only if the GOP cheats, and the Demorats let them. This country is spoiling to kick the GOP in the face for what they have done, and the rotting carcass of Iraq around McCain's neck is going to be hard for him to overcome.

"The GOP is becoming a regional party." As it mostly always has been, propped up and propagandized by our imperial war machine. But this year it is splitting a bit between its fiscal ans social conservatives.

Anyway I can't tell whether you are agreeing or disagreeing with the main point of my argument.

[BlueManDude]

21. First of all the electoral college favors the GOP

they simply have more states they can absolutely count on than we do. Many of these states (places like Idaho, Montana the Dakotas) have a disproportionate influence on the outcome of prez elections. There are more livestock than people in these places but they still get their 3 elec votes. The elect college needs to be abolished but since the GOP sees how big a boon it is for them it will never happen.

While I agree that 2000 was stolen, that election should never have been close and it's a great example of the advantages that the GOP has in presidential elections. Again the point I'm making is that prez elections are not rational. People don't cast their ballot on the issues like they do downballott. I don't know enough about what happened in Ohio in 2004 to comment.

The vote for president is the most personal vote that a person casts. It's about "gut" and "instinct" and "character" (as usually defined by the GOP and their media lackeys) not about 10 point plans for this and that. If it were about issues, as opposed to flag waving and fearmongering and pictures of people windsurfing, the Dems would win every time. The Dems always campaign on health care (because the polls tell them that this is a big issue) but the prez vote is always about who you want to have their finger on "the button." This election is going to be about national security and I hope Obama is ready for it.

2006 was a very good year for Dems, not just as the fed level but on a state level as well. I see the wind at their backs (regardless of whether they win the WH or not) and the trend continuing. Yes the remnants of the GOP dominance is still there, and the situation with the USSC is pretty bad but it seems to me the Dems are responding to the people whereas the GOP is running the same campaign they've run since the 1950s.

[ProfessorPlum]

23. But you are doing what the Democratic consultants have always done

conceeding states that have usually gone Republican. The people in the south and the rural west have been played for suckers by the GOP for decades, voting for daddy figures to keep them safe from the "bad people", meanwhile getting reamed economically. It's the central issue in "What's the Matter with Kansas?", Thomas Frank's book.

By leaving voters in those states for (brain) dead, the Democratic party has increased their negative image in those states as belonging ONLY to urban, coastal, liberal areas. But the values of the Democratic party - that part of it not already completely owned by corporations - have appeal to people across the board! Economic justice, worker protections, a social safety net.

You are assuming the GOP advantage because our guys will only play where they think they can win, instead of engaging the whole country. By running a 50 state fight, the Democrats can begin to erase that advantage.

Your "GOP advantage" is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Other than that, we agree - good post.

[krkaufman]

28. For proof of your comments, point the poster to Montana.

Dem governor, Dem senator most recently elected.

[Kokonoe]

10. Those red states have always been purple.

I Hope Hillary knows when to quit, because overpaid consultants are not going to tell when its time.

[Voice for Peace]

17. true. why would they advise her to quit, as long as they're making money? nt

[jasmine621]

11. I think Dean already demonstrated there is another way to win. nt

[keep_it_real]

13. I'm gonna buy that book

[PassingFair]

15. People Powered Howard.

Has become People Powered Obama.

I agree and recommend your post enthusiastically!

I'll also add that great leaders aren't BORN, they
RISE to the occasion.

With supporters like Feingold, Leahy, Dodd and Kennedy
behind him, I LIKE OUR CHANCES with Mr. Obama.



DLC: You were put on notice with the ousting of Joe Lieberman.

Perhaps you didn't quite understand the SERIOUSNESS of the situation.
Abetting in an ILLEGAL, FOR-PROFIT, UN-PROVOKED
W-A-R will NOT be tolerated by a society with the ability
to find the truth, and to VOTE.

[Renew Deal]

18. Jerome has turned into a tool since writing that book.

He doesn't believe what he once believed. I guess he thinks he went bigtime and became what he opposed.

[krkaufman]

29. Any links for the readers to get more info on Jerome's toolness? n/t

[theboss]

19. Dean's strategy needed an Obama to make it work

I thought Dean's 50-state strategy was overly ambitious when he first starting talking about it. While I thought that the Democrats had intentionally marginalized themselves over the years, I thought the wiser strategy would have been to find four or five "purple" states and try to turn them blue. I thought Dean was overshooting a much more reasonable target.

And with the usual cadre of candidates that we typically run, I may have still felt that way.

Obama has changed that. While I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to win in, like, Utah. I don't see why he can't make the Republicans at least work for their money in other states. And who knows...maybe he brings an extra Representative along for the ride while he's at it.

It really has been fortuitous that what could easily have been dismissed as a pie-in-the-sky plan has met up with the candidate who may actually be able to make pie-in-the-sky work.

[ProfessorPlum]

20. I disagree slightly . . . while taking nothing away from Obama's ability

to give a good speech, I find his proposals rather tepid and his political bravery relatively non-existant. The campaigns, both Democratic and Republican, are being run in some kind of alternate universe, where the glaring and dangerous trials that we face here in reality don't seem to impinge. There is nothing about the corporations runaway hold on our government, indeed corporations wholesale _replacement_ of our government, in anyone's speeches. No one talks about reversing the massive civil rights losses, or reducing the power of the executive. No one acknowledges that we are a massively far flung, military empire that starts wars for profit. We talk about "change" and "experience". But no one is pointing out how stupid it is for people to vote for the GOP - - even as they pick their pockets (while this rhetoric may emerge in the general, I'm not hopeful). Obama's cautious time in the Senate, where real Democratic leadership is still missing despite having two Senators as candidates for the nomination, points to the dual realities.

Imagine a candidate with Obama's organizing skill (or Dean's plans for organization) combined with someone who lived and spoke about realities. Might that not be even more potent?

Sorry - if what you meant was Dean's strategy needed a good organizer like Obama to make it work, then I agree with you totally - but I don't think there is anything superhuman about his charisma or his message, such as it is. He is clearly a hell of an organizer, though.

[theboss]

22. I think Obama brings both to the table

I think Dean is a visionary and clearly a good fund-raiser. What he has always worried me is his ability to actually translate that vision and funds into action and more importantly votes. In that way, I thought he and Rahm Emanual were a good team in '06 even if they clearly could not stand each other. The problme was, of course, Rahm had no interest in genuinely pursuing a 50-state strategy.

Obama has Emanual's organizational abilities (frankly, every Democratic politician needs to spend four years in Chicago at some point - and then run away screaming before they get indicted) and can match or even exceed Dean's vision. And he will go to every state.

To be perfectly honest, "issues" are over-rated in presidential politics. The two most issue-oriented candidates over the last 60 years were Nixon and Carter. And they were the two presidents most easily bogged down in the morass of DC politics. The best presidents are always the direction setters who quickly get out of the way.

(Bill Clinton was a mix of the two. He clearly knew the issues. But he also let his underlings - like Rubin and Reich - do most of the grunt work).

[ProfessorPlum]

25. I agree - a feeling of trust seems to be the biggest motivator

in presidential votes. How that feeling is achieved is where the rubber meets the road.

[Recursion]

33. Worse yet, the most explicit talk of it comes from Ron Paul

There is nothing about the corporations runaway hold on our government, indeed corporations wholesale _replacement_ of our government, in anyone's speeches. No one talks about reversing the massive civil rights losses, or reducing the power of the executive. No one acknowledges that we are a massively far flung, military empire that starts wars for profit.

Actually, that was pretty much Ron Paul's platform. Hell, he almost beat Huckabee in Washington state.

[krkaufman]

30. Actually, Dean's 50 State Strategy has less to do with Obama and ...

... the Presidency, than it does with not conceding a damn thing, anywhere. The DNC needs to support the statewide Dem organizations in ALL our states in order to be competitive across the board.

[TexasObserver]

24. True. Inside the Beltway denizens lose all sense of reality once they've been there too long.

Bill and Hillary are good examples. They've lost touch.

We have to have more than 50% plus one to get things changed.

[krkaufman]

32. And definitely more than 50% minus 7. n/t

[Laelth]

26. Energetic local operations are good for the party.

Obama's local and state organizations will be the operating Democratic party structure in this country once he becomes President. He has done us great good!

And Dr. Dean too.

:toast:

-Laelth

[eridani]

27. I decided on Obama only after taking off my policy wonk hat--

--and putting on my local party organizer hat.

[PretzelWarrior]

31. new kick for this one. I AGREE!! I always hated the "electoral map" thing.

sure, there's some sense to doing the math...but when you pre-slice up ahead of time who you're even going to go after??? that's crazy. we should not have leaders who are focus-group and market segment driven.

[Scurrilous]

34. K & R

:thumbsup:

[AtomicKitten]

35. He beat her fair and square using Dean's 50-state strategy.

It's a great time to be a Democrat.