Survey USA: Hillary Still leads in Ohio

[kennetha]

She is way ahead in early voting there, according to Survey USA.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1de3c664-db0a-42fd-a4ca-95348e2dcc7c&c=30">Clinton has 22pt margin among early voters

[Occam Bandage]

1. Wow, she's only leading 48-45. That's amazing for Obama!

[kennetha]

6. You're reading that incorrectly

She leads 50 - 44% among "All voters." There are two groups of voters in this survey. Those who have already actually voted. And those who are merely "likely" to vote. She leads by 22% among the 12% who have already voted and by a mere 3% among the 88% of the sample that has not yet voted.

[Occam Bandage]

12. No, I'm reading it properly. The people who have already voted

are not part of the polling trend; when looking to see the way things are going, we look at the people who are still considering what to do, and not the minority of people who have locked themselves in.

[kennetha]

14. Here's a quote to explain

" For Obama to win Ohio, he must receive at least 52% of the remaining likely voters. If Clinton gets more than 48% of the remaining Democratic Primary votes, Clinton wins the state. Because the convention delegates are allocated proportionally, a win for either candidate is not as profound as the symbolism that goes with it."

[Occam Bandage]

17. And that trending is lovely. If Hillary loses any more support, she loses the state.

[susankh4]

2. Yes we do....

and we don't have on-site registration. So, too bad for all the folks who are just now getting "fired up."

[Renew Deal]

4. Yes, Democracy is so terrible.

Disgusting.

[K Gardner]

8. Yeah, pretty bad when Dems are happy that Dems won't be able to vote. New low.

[anamandujano]

18. Or have their votes count like Florida, but rules are rules.

[K Gardner]

28. Hillary signed that pledge. She knew "the rules". That dog won't hunt.

[elixir]

36. So if Hillary signed a pledge and knew better than to count the FL votes, why don't

the Ohio dems know that they should register to vote by X date so they can have their vote counted? Hmmm?

Sounds like a double standard to me.

[K Gardner]

41. WTF?? There is no "there there". No one is making that coorelation except

you in a desperate attempt to grasp at straws. MY son, if that is to whom you are referring, just moved to Ohio and didn't know they had a deadline (post #5). No one is disparaging that. He didn't know the rules. That's on him. No one is saying the rules should be changed. The other Hillary supporter was gloating because there is no same day registration.

Gracious ! You guys are reaching.

[murbley40]

37. So did Obama.

And running ads throughout the state,is certainly campaigning. The votes should be awarded as they were earned.

[K Gardner]

42. Obama is not fighting to get the delegates seated. Give it up already. Even FLs delegates

wouldn't help Hillary now. Seat them for all I care. She's done.

[elixir]

33. Or republican wolves voting in sheeps clothing. Visions of caucus manipulation.

[susankh4]

16. We prefer reasoned democracy here in the midwest...

We're not interested in populist fads.

[Renew Deal]

22. I agree.

That's why Obama has won every midwestern state.

[susankh4]

30. We'll see....

about OH/IN/KY...

and of course our neighbors: TN/PA and MI.

[Renew Deal]

31. We've already seen.

And Obama is polling 20 points ahead in Indiana. There's reason to believe we won't have to wait that long.

[elixir]

38. Patience is a virtue. Let's respect the process. Polling is not a science re NH.

[Scurrilous]

43. Ouch!

:thumbsup:

[VolcanoJen]

19. Democracy blows!

We should bring back coronations and airs of inevitability! :eyes:

[elixir]

32. None in my state also. No problem. If youcare to vote you register w/in the deadline. Avoids error

and possible manipulation of voting. Makes sense to me.

[9119495]

40. In the electronic age, registration could be validated way more

quickly than 30 days before an election. Registration was originally intended to get cleaner elections, BUT ALSO SUPPRESS THE VOTES of those usually disenfranchised poor and "ethnic" citizens.

Registration OUGHT to be accomplished with a swipe of a valid driver's license at the polls--same day as the election. Non-drivers can fill out the form and mail it in the old way.

[democrattotheend]

45. I disagree. And same-day registration would help us in the general

It's also more Democratic, because requiring advanced registration makes it difficult for people who move to vote. This disproportionately impacts the poor and young voters, who tend to be more transient.

[K Gardner]

5. Doesn't Ohio also have a 30-day waiting period between registration and

ability to vote? That's what my son was told. He will miss March 4th by 3 days.

[susankh4]

13. Yes.

[Scurrilous]

3. More from your link:

"In a Democratic Primary in Ohio today, 02/26/08, the day the candidates debate in Cleveland, and 7 days before the votes are counted, Hillary Clinton is 6 points in front of Barack Obama, 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV Columbus, WKYC-TV Cleveland, WCPO-TV Cincinnati, and WHIO-TV Dayton. Two weeks ago, Clinton led by 17. One week ago, Clinton led by 9. Today: 6. Clinton holds her ground in greater Cleveland, greater Columbus, and greater Cincinnati. Clinton is steady among seniors, among voters focused on Health Care, among Moderates, among Pro-Choicers, and among women. Though Clinton trails among men, Obama has stopped making further inroads there. However: Among registered Democrats, Clinton had led by 21, then led by 17, now leads by 8. Among voters under age 50, Clinton had led by 9, then trailed by 2, now trails by 7. Among Pro-Life voters, Clinton had led by 11, then led by 8, now trails by 5. Among voters focused on the Economy, Clinton had led by 25, then by 21, now by 14. In greater Toledo, Clinton had led by 29, now leads by 1."


Obama appears to be steadily gaining. :thumbsup:

[Renew Deal]

10. Obama's cut her lead by 11 in 2 weeks and 3 in a week.

If he does that one more time....:D

[HeraldSquare212]

7. Wow, I hate that early voting margin.

There's a steep hill to climb there. I guess turnout will be key. I don't know how they're modeling turnout.

[cali]

11. don't. almost all the early voting polling has been way off

and there's a big MOE. This poll is great for Obama. Two weeks ago she was 18 pts ahead. Now it's 5. By next week I expect to see him ahead. I expect he carves out a win in OH.

[Renew Deal]

15. They say that if Obama wins election day 52-48, he wins.

Though, all he ahs to do is keep it close and Hillary won't gain on delegates.

[GOTV]

20. It's not that bad...

... she has 59% of 12% of the voters locked up. That's about 7% of the vote so far. That means Obama has about 4.5% of the vote so far. So Hillary has about a 2.5% lead locked in. That is, before march 4th Hillary starts 2.5% closer to the win than Obama does. That's not much considering Obama's typical margin.

2 weeks ago Hillary was 21% ahead among all voters, now it's 3% and there's still a week to go - including tonight's debate.

Obama may not win Ohio, but indicators are moving steadily in his direction.

[HeraldSquare212]

27. thanks!

[cali]

9. hmm. you don't seem to realize that this poll is great news for Obama

and there's a huge MOE in the early voting part.

[jackson_dem]

21. Obama needs to gain 9 points in a week to win Ohio if the EV figures are correct

That is unlikely. :bounce:

[Renew Deal]

23. Obama doesn't need to win.

Though, I'd keep in mind that he's made up 11 points in 2 weeks.

[Occam Bandage]

24. Hillary has to win both OH and TX by 65 to stay competitive.

:bounce:

[MadBadger]

25. If he wins Texas (which i think he will), he doesnt need to win OH

If she wins by 4 points or so, OH will be a wash.

[cali]

29. Maybe. He's done it before.

And he can easily gain another 5 or 6 pts in a week. If she wins by 4 and loses TX- and she's behind in most polls there now, she's still done.

[NJSecularist]

44. Actually, the difference is 6 points

And since he has gained that each week, it's looking more and more likely that Obama can win Ohio.

Nice spin, though.

[elixir]

26. Thanks, Kennetha , for a positive post!! Good news.

[maseman]

34. Gee early voting in Ohio

I will go out today and pull the lever for Obama in Ohio. Thanks.

[Exilednight]

35. She's 15% behind the margin she needs to win by....

Your link puts her at 50%, but 50 won't cut it. She needs to win with 65% of the vote, anything less is really a loss.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

39. in early voting

Ohio is probably the best she can do