Recent General Election Polls

[Skoods]

Associated Press-Ipsos Poll, 2/22-2/24. MOE=3.1%

Obama - 51%
McCain - 41%
Neither/Undecided - 8%

Clinton - 48%
McCain - 43%
Neither/Undecided - 9%

USA Today/Gallup Poll, Feb. 21-24, 2008. MOE=3%

McCain - 50%
Clinton - 46%
Neither/Undecided - 4%

McCain - 48%
Obama - 47%
Neither/Undecided - 5%

http://pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

Strange how the two polls are so much different. One has us crushing McCain, the other has him defeating both our candidates.

[mohc]

1. You have Clinton and Obama flipped in the AP poll. n/t

[Skoods]

2. Woops

Good catch...thanks for the heads up

[mohc]

3. Registered Voters vs National Adults

The spread of Obama vs Clinton is pretty close in both of these polls, but McCain is doing much better in the USAT poll. The AP poll was of national adults, registered or not. The USAT poll was only of registered voters. There are always differences when two different sample types are used, and Democrats tend to do better in NA polls than RV. The scary thing is that Democrats in turn tend to do better in RV polls than LV polls (Likely Voters), and LV polls tend to be the most accurate.

[mohc]

5. Rereading the poll

I now see that the Gallup poll was in fact LV, some of its previous polls were RV, but not this particular release.

[TheWraith]

4. Gallup is well known for leaning right in general election polls.

Explains why they have McCain winning when every other poll shows him drawing even or a little down from Clinton, a lot down from Obama.