Interesting party breakdowns on Obama and Clinton match-ups with McCain

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

This post is for people interested in ELECTORAL POLITICS. These are very interesting numbers that do not favor either candidate or argue for either candidate, and certainly do not demonstrate which someone "must" be the nominee. (And everyone knows polls this early mean nothing, etc.)

Versus McCain, Obama does better than Hillary among independents, leading McCain 47-43. Hillary loses independents to McCain by 10, but does a bit better among people who have a party... Democrats and Republicans. Obama gets 9% of Republicans but loses 17% of Democrats. Hillary gets murdered among Republicans (4%), but only 12% of Dems go for McCain with Hillary at the top of the ticket.

If you look at the charts it seems like Obama would be further up in the match-ups. He beats her among Independents, she gets 5% more Dems, and he gets 5% more pugs. The reason that doesn't put him further up is that 5% of Democrats is bigger than 5% of Republicans, because there are a bunch more Democrats. So that's cool. :)

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/104548/McCain-Competitive-Democrats-Latest-Trial-Heats.aspx

[papau]

1. re ELECTORAL POLITICS: - is something similiar by state available?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. Not an organized 50 state thing by one polling firm.

There are all sorts of match-up polls, but nobody can afford to do all 50 states.

And state breakouts from national polls would have some states with a 25 point margin of error... not enough sample size for someplace like Idaho.

There's a recent Survey USA match-up set in 10 states kicking around... should be in the first 3-4 pages of GDP somewhere.

Mixed results... McCain did surprisingly well in Oregon, Obama stronger than Clinton most places. Clinton stronger than Obama in Ohio vs mcCain, and I think in Florida (?)

About what one would expect.

[ContinentalOp]

3. You expect me to believe that 5% of Democrats would rather vote for a Republican than Obama?

That's pure absurdity.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. Not 5%... 17%. (the argument from personal incredulity is a nice touch)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. ...