There will be a PENN. debate.....

[catagory5]

After she wins Ohio by 6-8% and sqeaks by in TX then it is off to PN. Which of course will have a debate sponsored by CNN. After everything is said and told March 5th Hillary will only be behind 50 -60 delegates. That is without FL counting. With FL it is Hillary +10. Get ready cuz this thing is going to overtime!!!!

[BeyondGeography]

1. If you say so, champ

[AX10]

2. I hope so.

:kick:
:hi:
:hug:

[PretzelWarrior]

3. that is seriously depressing picture you lay out there.

even for Hillary supporters I'm sure the prospect of winning in THAT WAY seems a bit of a pyhrric victory

[bluestateguy]

4. Oh, I guess Mississippi and Wyoming don't matter

Why am I not surprised.

[gmudem]

6. And North Carolina too.

That one definitely doesn't matter.

[Johnny__Motown]

5. Good luck with that, odds are she will lose Texas and only squeak by in Ohio, at best

The trends in all the polls are very clear, and she can't seem to do anything to change it.

[blogslut]

7. We'll see

I really don't think she'll be squeaking in Texas though.

[AtomicKitten]

8. It will be over by March 5th.

[PretzelWarrior]

10. OMG! I laughed big time at your graphic.

that is just hilarious.

[scheming daemons]

9. LOL.... ok......

If your scenario comes true (which is unlikely), Hillary will only net a grand total of about 3 to 5 delegates.

She is down about 100 now.... with a 6-8% win in ohio and a "tie" in Texas, she doesn't cut into that at all.


If they "tie" in Texas, Obama will clean up in delegates because of the way the state is set up and because 1/3 of the delegates are awarded in a caucus that night.

If she doesn't do better than tie in Texas, Obama will pick up 10-15 delegates there. He Ohio win would be offset. His win in VT would offset her win in RI.


Come next Wednesday... IN YOUR SCENARIO... Obama would still be up by about 90 to 100. Since your scenario is the ROSIEST one for Clinton, it is likely Obama widens his delegate lead on Tuesday.

If he's still up by 90-100 delegates.... the uncommitted superdelegates will move to him in droves, because none have a stomach to drag this for 6 more weeks to PA.



It's nice that you are optimistic for your candidate... but perhaps you're tired from a long night (and a long several weeks).

This race is over.

[FlyingSquirrel]

25. I agree with everything but your last

Many of the superdelegates have pledged to remain uncommitted till the end of voting. But I do think the gap between Obama and Clinton will continue to narrow, perhaps by another 30 or so after the 4th. Some who have gone for Clinton do not want to look like they are just following the winds, so to speak, so they'll hang on a lot longer than others who might be feeling more pressure to change their vote.

[Renew Deal]

11. OK

[PretzelWarrior]

14. dang you people are cracking me up

that's several posts just in this thread that are truly funny.

[Recursion]

23. Hey!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4783636&mesg_id=4784666

PLAGIARIST!!

:)

[johnnydrama]

28. I admire your restraing

to not photoshop the bottom and change it to Howard Wolfson

[PseudoIntellect]

12. 50 to 60 delegate deficit by March 5th?

Things look like Obama is going to win Texas by about 10% now. I think Hillary has a good chance of winning Ohio by 3-4 percent, but won't a VT landslide by Obama nearly cancel that out?

[cali]

16. A VT win will more than cancel it out- here's why:

VT has a strange delegate allocation system. If Obama wins by 30 pts, as is more than likely here, he'll pick up almost all of the delegates. According to Eric Davis of Middlebury, he'll get something like 17 to 20 of Vermont's 23 delegates- that's including SDs, most of whom have already gone for Obama. She won't pick up more than 5 or 6 more than Obama in RI.

[cali]

13. It's done. over. finished.

I doubt she pulls out OH, and she's going to lose TX big. She'll lose Vermont by 30 pts. Get used to it. The pressure on her to drop out has already started. Bill said she had to win TX and OH to get the nomination. Hilly is through.

[grantcart]

15. Your numbers are wrong

1) Even if she wins Texas by 7-8 points she will lose on the delegates. You can read that explanation here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4782802&mesg_id=4782802

2)She continues to lose SD at a rate of 3 a day
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4783480


3) If she loses delegates in Texas then she will finish Mar with a net loss.

4) In order to gain delegates in a two person race you have to get atleast 65% to pick up any delegates in odd numbered districts

Its not divided up by results in a state - in fact in Texas there isn't even a bonus for winning the state as there is in some states

If you win a 2 delegate congressional district you would have to get 70% to get both delegates 51 or 69% are still going to mean a split

IN a 3 delegate district you if somebody gets 51 or 70% you would still split 2-1

In a 4 delegate district at 65% you get a 3-1 split

and so on and that's why they say you really have to get 65% in a congressional district to make up big numbers

and I don't know the exact percentages but you get the point. That is why once it gets to two person race and one person is ahead it is almost impossible for anyone to catch up.

In the meantime the superdelegates are going against Hillary


And this means she has to do even better than before


And finally in Texas (which is 1/3 caucus, 1/2 primary) the congressional districts get bonuses for how many democratic votes in the last election. Those districts that have high African American turn out for example are going to get a much higher percentage of delegates than a Hispanic district because they supported the democratic nominee while the Hispanic districts were more for Bush.

For these reasons many people say that the numbers mean that Hillary cannot win and do not understand why people want to push the campaign beyond the point of no return.

Clinton supporters on the other hand look at the numbers and see that it seems like a small difference and anything can happen.

I hate to bear bad news for you but I think that the above explanation will help you atleast understand why Obama supporters now feel that it is a foregone conclusion.

Good luck to Hillary supporters. Anything can happen. I hope that we can be reconciled on the same team in a few weeks

[FlyingSquirrel]

19. Why we are bothering to argue with someone who didn't even take the time

to spell his username correctly is beyond me.

:shrug:

[Window]

32. ..

[MadBadger]

17. Im just wondering how she picks up 60-70 delegates from Florida

[FlyingSquirrel]

18. What you have just predicted is mathematically incorrect

Best case scenario (something close to what you were predicting):

Delegates won on March 4

State Clinton Obama

OH 79 62
TX 97 96
RI 12 9
VT 6 9

Total: Clinton 194, Obama 176

---

Current Totals

Candidate Delegates Superdelegates Total
Clinton 1033 239 1272
Obama 1188 180 1368

Clinton is currently behind Obama by 155 in Pledged Delegates, and 104 overall.

The most ground Hillary can possibly make up on March 4 is only about 20 delegates, so she'd still be behind by 135-140 PDs, and behind by 80-85 overall.

Let's not forget, by the way, that the Superdelegates can change their minds (and have been doing so quite a bit over the past few days as Clinton appears less "inevitable".)

[cali]

20. Obama will win TX handily

and again, VT has a wierd delegate allocation system and if he wins big here, he'll pick up most of the delegates. She could get as few as 3 of the VT delegates.

[Barack_America]

21. What is "PN"? n/t

[WinkyDink]

22. PA. We're PA. :)

[Barack_America]

24. Oh yeah. And definitely not "Penn" either. Penna, however, is acceptable.

Thanks for clarifying what the OP was talking about.

[monomach]

27. Pittsburghland

That's what I'll call it.

[BringBigDogBack]

26. No.

[Seabiscuit]

29. I see 20 borg panties in a bunch.

Beyond the 20 posts by "Ignored", all I see is 8 replies. Your OP apparently struck a borg nerve.

[JackORoses]

30. why has Hillary scheduled no Campaign events in PA?

[Window]

31. Okay.

[hendo]

33. Yes..

Because we all want Hillary to carry on this race without any hope of winning the nomination. As though the party isn't fragmented enough as it is.