Obama must LOSE remaining states by at least -16% to WIN

[mckeown1128]

Let's look at where we stand. Since the super delegates will NOT overturn the pledged delegates, it is safe to assume that whoever wins the majority of the pledged delegates wins the nomination. The PD amount is 3,227(Discounting Edward's 26 delegates)

It is a race to 1614 PD's.(50% + 1) Whoever hits 1614 pledged delegates is the nominee.

The current pledged delegate total for Obama and Hillary stands at: (Per CBS) Obama 1,192 and Clinton 1,035 (With 19 still not delegated yet) Assuming that they will split evenly and giving Clinton the extra. That leaves us with.

Obama 1,201 and 413 delegates needed or 42% of all remaining PD's
Hillary 1,045 and 569 delegates needed or 58% of all remaining PD's


Obama only needs 42% of the remaining pledged delegates.

Now, if you look at the remaining states. By polling and general consensus.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries%2C_2008

Obama states:

Mississippi
Wyoming
Oregon
Montana
South Dakota
Vermont
North Carolina

Hillary states:

Ohio
Rhode Island
Pennsylvania
Guam, Indiana
West Virginia
Kentucky
Puerto Rico

Tie:

Texas

Let's look at super-mini-tuesday:

Texas with 193 delegates is currently tied in the polling averages. Obama should do better than the vote total due to his campaigns better ground game. (which comes into play with Texas's weird up hybrid caucus/primary) Also, the districts that Obama is expected to sweep are over weighted in delegates. (do to more unusual up Texas rules) Obama has also shown that his results are a few points better than his polling averages.(not counting NH of course) So the result. Obama should pick a small amount of delegates(even if he loses the primary)

Ohio.. a small 6 point Clinton win. (if the polls hold up) this should come out with Clinton winning a smaller number of delegates. (districts with even delegates will split evenly with a 6 point difference.

RI... a small Clinton win.
VT... a large Obama win.

There is a very real possibility that Tuesday come out a tie in delegates won. (giving Clinton again the odd delegate) That would make the new delegate count:

Based on a tie on March 4th.

Obama 1,408 and 206 delegates needed or 36% of all remaining delegates
Hillary 1,253 and 361 delegates needed or 64% of all remaining delegates

With Obama expected to win:

Mississippi
Wyoming
Oregon
Montana
South Dakota
North Carolina

it is over. Even if Clinton wins Texas and Ohio, she has to win by 16% over Obama in all of the states including the several that Obama is supposed to win.


WE have a nominee...

[ORDem]

1. Thank you! Though it still won't sink in for the HRC supporters I would guess.

:kick:

[mckeown1128]

2. I know... they are still bragging about Hillary being up 8% in OH. nt

[yourguide]

15. They can brag about 8% but...

polls released today show a 5% and 6% margin. everyday he gains a point or so. By super tuesday it will be dead even in ohio.

[Kukesa]

3. K & R. Nice work. n/t

[mckeown1128]

7. Thanks... nt

[Tarc]

4. Fuzzy math is pretty easy to calculate when you ignore wildcards

Superdelegates are not a given, as you would hope. And there's also Florida and Michigan, which can, will, and should be accounted for somehow. Otherwise either Democratic nominee will lose both states, and likely the general election, if both of these critical states are left out in the cold.

I can already see the usual gang of Obamaniacs whipping up the same old links to past court rulings on delegate-stripping and whatnot, but please, save your breath. It isn't about legality or rightness; it is about common sense. Ignoring two critical battleground states seriously jeopardizes the general election.

[mckeown1128]

6. "it isn't about legality".... whatever it takes to win.. huh...

If Hillary were to win through Superdelegates and FL/MI she would tear the party apart... and the SD's are not going to allow that to happen...


And don't give me that crap about FL and MI going to McCain over this. Don't even go down that slippery slope. When Hillary drops out Obama and Dean will push for FL and MI to be given 'some' representation in the convention. Don't even get me started on how the FL and MI primaries are an insult to democracy. (people have a right to know if their vote will be put to delegates BEFORE they vote) Hillary has no right to claim the fraudulant results from FL and MI for herself.

[Tarc]

9. Unlike the O-Bots, the voters in FL and MI aren't stupid y'know

Seating them after the fact when it it no longer matters will not be a sufficient appeasement in any way, shape, or form.

But hey, its your funeral, as they say. A McCain administration, more Scalitos on the bench, etc... all of that will be on your hands, bud.

[cali]

12. I don't think we have to worry about FL and MI and YOU

can't speak for voters in FL and MI. You have no idea whether giving them their delegates now or waiting until later will influence votes.

In any case, TX looks like an Obama win and VT will go to him in a landslide. OH is still up in the air, and she should pick up RI. At the end of Tuesday night, it's likely he'll have added more pledged delegates to his current 155 PD lead. How does she overcome that?

[Tarc]

18. I long ago stopped carring what the O-Bot-in-Chief has to say

Don't waste my time clicking the "who replied to my post" link again, please.

[mckeown1128]

17. Don't the voters in FL and MI have a right to fair election.

They have to know BEFORE they vote what the stakes are. They were told one thing(that the delegates wouldn't be allowed) and now Hillary is trying to tell MI and FL who they want for president. They need fair elections.

[Tarc]

19. Tough titty says the kitty

If Obama was dumb enough to take his name off the Michiga ballot, Clinton shouldn't be penalized for it. And no one (other than Obama's "oopsie! my national ad run accidentally hit the Florida airwaves too, my bad) campaigned in Florida at all, so it was all equal and fair there.

[mckeown1128]

20. You are misrepresenting what I said...

NHPR's Laura Knoy: "So, if you value the DNC calendar, why not just pull out of Michigan? Why not just say, Hey Michigan, I'm off the ballot?"

Hillary Clinton: "Well, you know, It's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything"


http://www.nhpr.org/node/13858


Why the back track? But, the point here is that voters in MI an FL were told they were not voting for delegates. Hillary can't flip-flop and say "gotcha... the vote did count". Fair elections are based on people knowing what they voting for.

[long_green]

32. You were doing okay until you pulled out the "electability"

argument (implied by your evocation of a McCain admininstation). Don't try to pull BO down by hinting that HRC is more electable. If the nomination campaign has proven anything it's proven that she is a poor campaigner with a fatally negative image nationwide. I don't know if BO can win the GE. But Hillary? Please.

[truedelphi]

23. Agreeing with you on all points n/t

[grantcart]

8. Clinton is losing the SD race at about three delegates a day

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=132&topic_id=4783480&mesg_id=4783480

[scheming daemons]

10. "It isn't about legality or rightness" - the new HRC campaign theme...

....

[pampango]

25. It is a compelling theme, isn't it? As a parent,

I'm sorry now that I didn't preach the "It isn't about legality or rightness. It is about winning." more often. :)

[mckeown1128]

36. Scary huh? N/T

[Lerkfish]

24. from "inevitable" to counting on "wild cards"

how far has the clinton campaign fallen?

[Johnny__Motown]

37. even easier when you make up wildcards

[totodeinhere]

5. It gets even better than that.

I think that most neutral observers belive that Obama will end up winning Texas, and some of those other states that you put in Clinton's column aren't really so solid for her either.

[grantcart]

11. as most delegates (in Texas) all

are divided up on the basis of congressional districts and not state results your numbers actually understate the case for Hillary. She will have to consistently get 65% in many congressional districts in order to get a 3-1 split in for example a CD that has 4 delegates.

And every time Obama picks up one of these splits Hillary has to pick up one just to stay even.

Texas accounts for 1/2 of the delegtes in March.

There is no way that she can gain a single delegate in March. Hillary's best case scenario at this point is to tie in March and take the party thru a 4 week wait hoping that a scandal erupts around Obama. That is her best case scenario.

We have entered the Huckabee Zone

[Iggo]

13. If he loses by minus 16%...

...does that mean he actually wins by plus 16%?

[bigbrother05]

14. Thanks for posting

and breaking it down into simple math.

[RiverStone]

16. And if Obama wins TX next week...

Hopefully the math would suggest Hillary's campaign is no longer mathematically viable. Some polls already have him up there by 5% +.

The sooner we can reunify and pool resources for the GE, the better.

Thanks for the overview! :hi:

[nickn777]

21. Indiana will not be a Hillary state.

[tridim]

22. Hillary's "deligate hub" site is still up and running.

Until she takes it down I don't trust that she'll do the right thing for our country and our party.

http://www.delegatehub.com/

Five Facts about Democratic Delegates
FACT: Pledged delegates and automatic delegates are the same - they each count for ONE vote.

learn more


The Democratic Party chooses its delegates in three ways: 1) through primaries where millions vote; 2) through caucuses where thousands vote; and 3) it gives a role to elected leaders and other party activists in the process. >Automatic delegates (commonly referred to as "super delegates") comprise the third category. Automatic delegates come from all 56 states and territories and consist of Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors, distinguished party leaders (including former Democratic presidents, vice presidents, former House and Senate Democratic leaders and former DNC Chairs) and members of the Democratic National Committee. These DNC members are activists and grassroots supporters who are focused on helping Democrats win at all levels of elective office. There is no difference between pledged delegates and automatic delegates - they each count as one delegate in the final tally and no distinction is made between them at the convention.

FACT: Neither candidate can secure the nomination without automatic delegates.

learn more


The Obama campaign is trying to shut down the Democratic race before the rest of the country votes. There are still many states and territories that have not voted with over 1000 delegates at stake. These delegates represent nearly half of the 2,208 delegate votes needed for the nomination. It is mathematically impossible for Sen. Obama to secure the delegate votes needed for the nomination without automatic delegates. This is why, despite publicly attempting to discount the role of automatic delegates, the Obama campaign is aggressively courting - and pressuring - them behind the scenes.

FACT: Automatic delegates are expected to exercise their best judgment in the interests of the nation and the Democratic Party.

learn more


The Obama campaign is claiming that automatic delegates must follow the lead of pledged delegates and switch their vote to Sen. Obama. This is false and unfounded - and it is contradicted by Sen. Obama's top strategist, David Axelrod, who said, "These are elected officials from across the country and they're supposed to exercise their judgment as to what would be best for the party. And as they look at this, they need to decide who would be the strongest candidate for the party." This view is echoed by other prominent Democratic leaders, including House Majority Whip James Clyburn and DNC Chairman Howard Dean, who has said of automatic delegates, "Their role is to exercise their best judgment in the interests of the nation and of the Democratic Party."

FACT: Florida and Michigan should count, both in the interest of fundamental fairness and honoring the spirit of the Democrats' 50-state strategy.

learn more


An important part of the debate over delegates is the role of Florida and Michigan. Hillary Clinton believes that the voices of 600,000 Michigan primary voters and 1.75 million Florida primary voters should be heard at the Democratic convention. In the 2004 presidential race, the turnout in Michigan was only a quarter of what it was this year - and the 2004 turnout in Florida was less than half of what it was this year. With such dramatically increased turnout, Hillary won those two states and she did it with all candidates on an equal footing. In Florida, all presidential candidates were on the primary ballot and all followed the rules (except for Sen. Obama who broke the rules by running television ads in violation of his pledge to the early states and to the other presidential candidates). In Michigan, Sen. Obama voluntarily withdrew his name from the primary ballot to curry favor with Iowa. He was under no obligation to do so. However, his supporters organized a substantial vote for 'uncommitted' on the ballot, thus he is represented in the delegation. Hillary Clinton obeyed all the rules in Florida and Michigan and came out ahead. She had no intrinsic advantage over her opponents other than the will of the voters. The voters of Florida and Michigan should be heard and the delegates from Florida and Michigan should count.

FACT: There is a clear path to an overall delegate majority (pledged + automatic) for Hillary Clinton after all states have voted -- with or without Florida and Michigan.

learn more

[slampoet]

26. Good Post EXCEPT Obama Will Win RI Not Clinton.

Rhode Island is a very small state and due to that there is only one polling service.

This service is tied to the local (conservative-democratic owned) newspaper and to conservative leaning Brown University.



By far more accurate than the polling done by this one group is just an informal look at yard signs.

The yard signs in the providence metro area (which is 75% of the state) show about a 2-1 ratio of Obama yard signs over Clinton ones.










(BTW- there are those that will call me out on Brown being called conservative but ask yourself if any truly liberal institution would still lobby for the city of Providence to continue paying for Brown's sewer electric and trash services like Brown has forced us to do for the Last 300 years! Also ask yourself if any 300+ year old institution with a greater than 50% legacy rate can be considered anti-establishment)

[mckeown1128]

29. I am curious about RI...

What are the demographics like? Are they favorable to Obama? I mean, what convinces you that he wil win there?

[slampoet]

30. Again it is all about the yard signs.

People in RI put up yard signs to protest.

They put up a yard sign to oppose the new building project.
Even the Firefighters union puts up yard signs to protest the mayor.


And in all the neighborhoods I have seen (cranston, warwick, east prov, woonsocket, north prov, smithfield) the Obama signs outnumber the Clinton signs by 3-1


On the East Side, which is the most influential neighborhood, I have only seen one Clinton sign and that one was up illegally on Brown University Property. Apparently some someone got desperate when they saw that there were no Clinton Signs in a sea of Obama signs. So they thought that they would just put the sign on the ground of the Brown Observatory and no one would notice.

What the person who put up the Clinton sign didn't realize is that all the people with the Obama signs are renters or property owners who have a right to put up signs on their own property.

Brown University is (I believe) a Non-profit and they MUST stay neutral.


As for RI demographics they are extremely complex and i have had professors make total asses of themselves trying to apply the usual black-white-hispanic stereotypes here.

Take a look at the wikkipedia entry for more details than I can give but i will tell you that in Rhode Island being hispanic can mean that you speak Portugese, are black, and are more related to Christopher Columbus than the Italian majority in RI. We have a recognised Indian Tribe that technically is also white and african-american. We have poor people who have been in the RI for 300+ years and few blue bloods who are actually jewish.

Demographics as race-based Americans see them really don't apply in Rhode Island.

[mckeown1128]

31. Interesting... thanks! N/T

[bigbrother05]

27. Agree with the principle, but not quite that simple

Winning with 50% + 1 works for real elections, but this will be a nominating convention. With a +1 majority of the PDs, the 'will of the people' isn't clearly determined and think the SDs would consider a broader range of factors that none of us could clearly define.

Your premise that BHO would have to lose badly from here on out for HRC to close the gap is correct and unlikely based on the current state of things. Right now, all indications point to BHO steadily pulling away from HRC in the PDs and that will lead the SDs to jump on the winning bandwagon and the party will come together (including HRC, et al). After next Tues, if/when BHO builds a PD lead of 100 plus the number that HRC wants to claim from Fla (don't think she can make a valid argument for the MI PDs), I believe she will concede.

[mckeown1128]

28. You are right... It will be over next week.

and I did simplify... Interestingly enough... my simplifying I believe works in Hillary's favor in this analysis... She has to start winning all of the states remaining with the kind landslides that Obama has been getting.

[tekisui]

35. Her net gain in FL would only be 42, she is 150 behind in PD, now.

It will likely be 170+ behind after Tuesday. Wednesday morning she will wake up to the fact that she lost this Primary.

[BringBigDogBack]

33. you got it

It just hasn't become official yet. :thumbsup:

[mckeown1128]

34. kick....nt

[Johnny__Motown]

38. Clinton supporters are simply ignoring the math. Gonna use "Big State" argument later

[apocalypsehow]

39. Excellent, thank you! K & R.

n/t.

[quantass]

40. Now THAT'S Research -- Great job! Kicked

[mckeown1128]

41. Great picture icon thingy... I used to have a poster of

that up on my wall... best movie EVER!!!

[mckeown1128]

42. Kick

[Medusa]

43. Kick Again

Nothing better than cold hard statistics to wake up some people around here this morning.

[Fluffdaddy]

44. O-bots. I like that. The Obama supporters are a little robotic

When Hill takes both Ohio and Texas tonight the O-bots are going to need a little oil to stop over heating............. LOL

[jefferson_dem]

45. I challenge anyone to construct a feasable path to nomination for Hillary.

Using the delegate calculator at slate, and a best-case-scenario for Hillary, she still falls way short.



What do you come up with? ---> http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

[Fluffdaddy]

46. And how many delegates do you need to win.....Hummmm?

[jefferson_dem]

48. Simple. A lead in the pledged delegate count going into the convention.

Nothing else should matter.

EDIT: To insert the word "should". I ask you -- How does she get there from here?

[Fluffdaddy]

50. The Democratic Convention 2008 August 25 is a long way off.

that's a long time for BHO's magic over you guys to keep working. all HRC has to do is stay in the fight............and be there when the wheels fall off the bandwagon

[jefferson_dem]

52. That's not a path to victory for Hillary. That's a wish and a prayer.

Thanks for proving my point.

[Coexist]

47. Remember Missouri!!

[Onlooker]

49. I think you're looking at it the wrong way

I support Obama, but if Hillary gets momentum (which I don't think will happen) and comes close, then she's in a stronger position to make the case to the Superdelegates and that Florida and Michigan should be seated. Also, helping Clinton is the fact that many people are very comfortable with the idea of Obama as VP (while everyone assumes Clinton will not be VP), thus ameliorating to some degree the hurt if Clinton becomes the nominee.

Also, the notion that caucuses play to Obama's strengths, but do not reflect his true level of suport, is something that the Clinton campaign will be able to push.

During the last week, Obama has made some stupid mistakes (NAFTA, for instance), while Clinton has hit with some effective attack ads. If that ultimately leads to the impression among superdelegates that Obama can't win the GE and if he loses the last few primaries, then the case for Clinton will grow.

From the start, the primary process is a political process. It's not fair. It's not honest. The fact that Obama has pulled in Republicans and Independents into the Democratic Primary can certainly be argued as unfair. The fact that Clinton is trying to seat Michigan and Florida is also unfair. In a broken process, as long as the race is close, each side can make a good case, and it will be up to the loser to heal the party.

I really hope Obama wins big tonight so that we don't have a divided convention. I think there is a good chance he will win, but we better understand that Obama is a shrewd calculating politician, and with that comes some baggage -- NAFTA, Rezko, etc. He has far less baggage than Clinton, but the Clinton campaign is showing that he's not invulnerable, something the Republicans are well aware of.

[mckeown1128]

51. I disagree...

In order for Clinton to IMHO steal her way to the convention through super-delegates and FL and MI delegates....we would only have 2 months to run a GE campaign... the super-delegates will not let this thing get dragged out. They will end the nomination process as soon as possible... The only way to do that is to push for the delegate leader...which is Obama.

[Onlooker]

53. Not necessarily

Say, we learn over the next few weeks that Obama's connection to Rezko is vastly more extensive than previously thought, the mood could change. That said, so far he's run a brilliant campaign. He's as shrewd a politician as Bill Clinton for him to have gotten this far at this point in his career. His handling of Farrakhan (who, as you may know, does a lot of good inner city work), was politically very, very savvy. But, things can change overnight, and if they do, the Superdelegates may change too, especially given the possibility that it might take only a handful to switch the nomination. Nothing will be locked up before the Convention unless Obama scores big tonight. The Superdelegates will relish their power for as long as they can.