I don't know what's worse, the national media or the Obamites who think he even has a chance in Ohio

[RockyTorres]

[kid a]

1. i'm the worser one! =)

[AtomicKitten]

2. Obama's upward trajectory in trend is unmistakable.

I guess you missed it.

[mindfulNJ]

48. your sig pic is adorable!

:rofl:

[AtomicKitten]

68. cheers ;)

[gristy]

3. And those are our only choices?

You're worser! :evilgrin:

[MercutioATC]

4. He doesn't have to win...he just can't lose by a huge margin...

...and, according to polls (yes, I know, I don't trust polls either) he's closed the gap significantly.

He might not win Ohio, but he'll get what he needs there.

[RockyTorres]

11. Wait until Tuesday, he is going to lose by alot more than what

the national polls or media are thinking

[MercutioATC]

16. Hehe...we'll see. Ohio is a college state (more per capita than any other state)

Obama's been strong with college students.

[RockyTorres]

33. 100% true...what I found interesting though

was that the map polls showing where the majority of the college campuses are he is losing....ie: SE Ohio, where OU is and Columbus home to Ohio State University....that being said, I never believe the polls, so it will be interesting to watch, but it is still going to be a big win for Hillary...honestly 60 - 40, watch and see. Rural Democrats will not vote for Obama, and that is a huge part of the state...So, if he is not carrying in the college towns he has no shot!

http://www.intoxination.net/node/8760

[yourguide]

35. So you think she wins 60/40???

ROFL...ok. wow.

[RockyTorres]

38. Definetly!!!! Actually no Doubt!!!!!

[scheming daemons]

41. Hillary hasn't gotten over 60% in ANY state so far... not even NY.....

...

You're stoned, Rocky.

[RockyTorres]

47. Ok I'll be nice then 55 -35!

[Spirochete]

71. O...K....

Hey Rocky
Watch me pull a landslide out of my ass
Nothin' up my sleeve - PRESTO

[yourguide]

72. She only won NY 55 - 43

[knixphan]

5. we'll still love you when this is over!

[SoFlaJet]

6. I have the answer for you Rocky

C; the delusional Clinton supporters that refuses to look at the numbers that show she not only has to win but must win by 20 points to even have the remotest CHANCE of getting the nomination

[RockyTorres]

15. She is going to win 60 - 40

Just watch and message me Tuesday...

[SoFlaJet]

24. I know

"she's a fighter"

[Cha]

30. But, what's she fightin' for?

'erself? That's what I get..what has she done for people except start a war and send people to die and be maimed and generally screwed up.

[SoFlaJet]

36. exactly

she's all for herself-it doesn't matter if she stays in and continues to tear the democratic party apart-it seems like she is OK with feeding the RW slime machine material (like the picture) so they can run again in 2012. She won't be able to if Obama is elected in November especially if he has a successful 1st term.

[Cha]

50. It sure seems like that's what

hilaryland did in 2004 so she has quite the record of conniving since Oct 2002.

[SoFlaJet]

53. and right before the '06 elections

to John Kerry when she came out scolding him about his botched punch line-minutes after "her good friend" John McCain-but SHE would never play politics like THAT

[Cha]

55. Another nail in hilaryland's

political coffin as far as I was concerned. I wish more people could see that but it seems quite a few are catching on. Karma..she's a Bitch!

[RockyTorres]

57. Wow, just because you think she's a bitch you will vote the worst candidate between the two

[SoFlaJet]

59. nobody is calling her that

and neither should you

[RockyTorres]

61. I'm not, read Zidzi's comment

[Cha]

62. I'm not calling hilary

a bitch, SoFlaJet.. I'm saying Karma is a Bitch..it's true.

[SoFlaJet]

65. no I know you're not zid

it's this idiot Rocky paraphrasing you incorrectly

[Cha]

66. Oh wow! Sorry...I totally

read the wrong reply to me. That doesn't happen very often :P

I'm glad we got that cleared up. :hi:

[anamandujano]

58. Please share your proof with a link or a quote. TIA

[SoFlaJet]

63. I don't know if you're asking me for a link....

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,226584,00.html

[Akoto]

7. I don't know what's worse ...

People who make one-liner flamebait posts, or people who're only out to tear other people down.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[thereismore]

9. Don't take the bait, fellow DUers! nt

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. Foolish flame-bait. Obama has a chance anywhere

That doesn't mean he will win Ohio, but his chances are worse than 60-40, and probably closer to 50-50, which certainly counts as a chance.

[RockyTorres]

20. Like I said don't believe the polls or the media

50 - 50 is not even feasible...Believe me I live here...

[pampango]

23. And he knows every Ohioan. I live in Ohio, too, but I don't know every

one in the state. (Guess I don't get around much.)

Who you gonna believe - the polls or Rocky? ;)

[RockyTorres]

25. Rocky of course....Be realistic....the polls are worth shit...and he really has no shot

at winning in Ohio

[angie_love]

12. I don't know whats worse, you telling us to watch fox news yesterday or you writing crap like this

:shrug:

[RockyTorres]

22. LOL... :) But LIke I said he does not have a shot...He is

better off going to Texas and trying to win some votes down there and not loose by a landslide

[IntravenousDemilo]

28. "Loose"? n/m

[SoFlaJet]

40. wait a minute

I thought that after the last loss she said "meet me in Texas" Now it's meet me in Ohio...what next "meet me in Puerto Rico"

[RockyTorres]

45. It's always been Meet Me in Ohio...where'd you get Texas from?

[SoFlaJet]

52. her speech after the last loss

IN TEXAS

[angie_love]

46. Next is "meet me at the convention"

[MadHound]

13. Considering that a month ago Obama was 21 points behind

And now,with a week to go, he's pulled to within 11-4 points(depending on the poll), I would say that Obama is the real deal. We've seen this pattern happen time and again this primary, with Hillary starting out with a huge lead and then having Obama catch up and surpass her.

Meanwhile in Texas, Obama has pulled ahead a bit and is gaining ground. This is not good news for Hillary, because if Obama wins either one of these states, you can stick a fork in her, she's done

[SoFlaJet]

43. and whenever we see the posts that say

"What happened to DU?" we are looking like Free republic-it's post threads like this that are the reason FOR it

[gristy]

14. You've got 2 OPs in GDP left for the day

I hope you can use them more wisely than this one, but somehow I doubt that you can.

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[RockyTorres]

21. Message me Tuesday...60 - 40 Clinton Victory in Ohio

[FlyingSquirrel]

18. Ohio Prediction

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxlYjqTRqvk&feature=related

[democrattotheend]

19. What makes you think he doesn't?

Have you talked to a lot more people who support Hillary?

[OneBlueSky]

26. as one having no dog in this fight . . . (don't like either) . . .

it sure seems to me that all of the momentum is all on Obama's side . . . at this point, I will be greatly surprised if he DOESN'T win Ohio . . . and Pennsylvania, too, for that matter . . .

Obama has the nomination virtually locked up, imo -- barring some additional craziness descending on is campaign between now and the convention . . . and that's certainly not beyond the realm of possibility in this primary season from hell . . .

[Cha]

27. I have a third choice..

you.

[RockyTorres]

29. thx

[DefenseLawyer]

31. You can try to make Ohio matter if you want.

It's already over.

[RockyTorres]

37. Ohio always matters...read up on your history...they always pick the President

and will be the deciding State in the Democratic nomination...don't be fooled...8 Presidents aren't from Ohio by mistake...

[DefenseLawyer]

42. Thanks for the advice, I'll "read up on history"

It's still over. You don't have to believe it if you don't want to. And I heard William Howard Taft will be joining Ann Richards at several HRC of campaign rallies, so you at least have that to look forward to.

[anamandujano]

60. Psssst, don't tell them about Florida.

Ohio doesn't matter, Florida doesn't matter, Michigan doesn't matter--I guess we should start calling it the 47 state strategy.

[RockyTorres]

64. I know...if we only carry Hawaii that will do it for us!!!

[DUyellow]

32. bookmarked

[yourguide]

34. Oh riiiiiiight.

Let's see. HRC was up by 29% in Ohio, now she's up by 5% and Obama keeps closing the gap by 1% a day.

Rocky, call it - what is going to be the percentage split since you seem to know so much about Ohio.

[grantcart]

39. last two polls show 5-6% gap

[yourguide]

44. Thanks Grant

OP claims 60/40 win for her in Ohio, I say even if Barack pulls ahead in polling that she manages to get it by less than 5 percentage points between them, but 20 points? Gimme a break.

[RockyTorres]

49. Like I said message me Tuesday night on here...he is going to get rocked in Ohio!!!

[grantcart]

54. The thing is that in order to gain any significant increase you have to

get 65% in a particular CD to be able to split districts that have 4 delegates 3-1. If you win by 51% or 57% you will get almost the same split in delegates.

Ohio is not going to be decisive, Texas is. Ohio is going to be the desert.

[RockyTorres]

56. Texas is going to split closer than Ohio...She will win both and Pennsylvania

The pleged delegate count is going to be close when these three states are said and done, and I am sorry but there is no way the DNC cannot let Floridas delegates count when all candidates were on the ballot...I just think that Obamites, who don't get me wrong I still love, and not saying that you are one, need to realize that this race is far from over....You cannot listen to the national media or the polls and think that this is even close to wrapped up...

[grantcart]

70. Wrong on 1)Pennsylvania 2)Super Delegates and 3)Texas

1) Go Here and study the PA polls. She is losing 1 point a day to Obama


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1148&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0
quote
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, surging among younger voters, has cut Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters to 6 points, 49 - 43 percent, after trailing by 16 points just two weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.


This compares to a 52 - 36 percent lead for Sen. Clinton February 14.
unquote



2)Superdelegates - Today Obama passed Clinton in "elected" superdeletages now only the advantage she has are DNC delegates that owe their position to the loyalty to BC



3)Details of the Texas coup de grace and Clinton political malpractice

coup de grâce

/kudə ˈgrɑs/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun, plural coups de grâce /kudə ˈgrɑs/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation. French. 1. a death blow, esp. one delivered mercifully to end suffering.
2. any finishing or decisive stroke.


mal•prac•tice

/mælˈpræktɪs/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun 1. Law. failure of a professional person, as a physician or lawyer, to render proper services through reprehensible ignorance or negligence or through criminal intent, esp. when injury or loss follows.
2. any improper, negligent practice; misconduct or misuse.

HRC campaign for President has simply failed to develop a compelling
message on why she should be President. If you did not immediately buy into the inevitability argument there was never a compelling hook for anybody to join that was not already a fan. Her experience arguement was destroyed by her inability to make a clear statement about the IWR vote, admitting the mistake and moving on.

If she repeat she had not been so interested in packaging a product for consumption but rather fired her pollsters and consultants and just put herself out there she would have been the candidate. It happened for a moment in NH and the people responded. The great irony of this campaign season is, that Sen. McCain's prescription of just leaving all of the packagers behind and doing town meetings would have made her a rock star. Can you imagine the media she would have generated by travelling by herself and just talking to people. She continues to see Super Delegates move from her (4 more in the last 24 hours
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...



Below is detailed step by step why HRC will not gain any delegate advantage in Texas

Because Texas accounts for almost half of the delegates in March, she has no chance of significantly improving her delegate count this month.

Sen. Clinton, President Clinton and all of the other paid consultants know all of this and are guilty of campaign malpractice

Rather than settling out of court we have to wait for another jury. Just like any other civil action don't be surprised if the jury on Mar 4th brings in damages that will have a devestating effect on the Clintons. They could have settled some time ago for pennies.

After Wisconsin this stopped being about Obama winning. it is now simply about packing up the circus with as little damage as possible. The ball is in Clinton's court and how much damage they are willing to inflict on his legacy, her future and our party.


1) The Texas Reality

By the time the ballots were being counted in the Potomac primaries, Clinton had landed in El Paso, Texas, where she declared, "We're going to sweep across Texas in the next three weeks." http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1713270,...

But the reality is that after Wisconsin there never was any hope of reversing delegate slippage in Texas. As the demographics below show the field was always demographically tilted for Obama. It was Wisconsin where Hillary stood a reasonable chance, based on demographics, of stopping Obama's sweeping 'run the table' end game of primary wins.

That would have been enough but "Now, having blown through more than $120 million, Clinton's campaign is struggling to build a campaign from scratch in Ohio and Texas, with political observers in near agreement that a failure to win both could be fatal.(ibid)
Rather than confront the Texas reality the Clinton campaign is sticking to some illusion that "Harold Ickes, who gave a presentation about Hillary Rodham Clinton's prospects that severed all ties with reality. "We're on the way to locking this nomination down," he said of a candidate who appears, if anything, headed in the other direction.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20...

2) Detailing Texas’ Unique Delegate Conundrum
Total Delegates 228 (roughly half of all of the delegates to be selected in March 502)

Selected by Primary 126
Caucus 67
Super Delegate 35
(As of 2/26 Clinton has 13 and Obama has 6)

First the process as explained in Wikipedia
Texas has a unique two-step process of an open primary and caucus, which the Delegate Selection Plan refers to as precinct conventions.

Participants may affiliate with the Democratic Party simply by voting in the primary or signing an affidavit of affiliation.<6>

The presidential primary is binding and has a minimum 15% threshold to receive delegates. The 126 state senate district delegates are selected through the primary based on results in each of the 31 state senate districts.

They are apportioned based on the weight of the vote cast for the Democratic nominee for Governor of Texas, Chris Bell, in the 2006 general election, and for John F. Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election.

This has the result of increasing delegates in African-American senatorial districts disproportionate to their population<7>, and depressing delegates from Hispanic districts.<8><9>

At 7:15 p.m., precinct conventions will be held at most polling places, which are open to those who voted in the Democratic primary. At this point, participants sign in and declare their presidential preference, or that they are uncommitted, which is an option not available on the primary ballot.

<10> Each precinct is allocated one delegate for each 15 votes cast for the Democratic nominee for Governor of Texas, Chris Bell, in the 2006 general election. Unlike most Democratic caucuses, there is no 15% threshold, as long as there are enough whole persons to select a delegate.<11>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Democratic_primary%2...
Second the Distribution of Delegates

Here is a map of CD in Texas


Here is a map showing how delegates are distributed by region
With a breakdown of ethnic groups

The delegates are concnetrated in the districts where Obama has the best demographics



Here is a computerized model using best available data from one week ago
(polls since then have gone Obama’s way



Detailed explanation on each Congressional District can be found here;

http://blog.texansforobama.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=891


If you want to see updates from 7 local newspapers showing local reaction to more recentObama surges go here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Summary
1) Multiple Polls show Clinton losing ground Obama winning Texas
2) Michelle Stumps in Galveston
3) African-American Districts have extra delegate power
4) Heavy Turnout Helping Obama- Corpus Christi
5) Heavy Turnout From Obama supporters Dallas
6 )Heavy Democratic Voting in El Paso
7) Delegate Distribution Heavily Favors Obama: Caucuses could be Chaotic

[Muttocracy]

69. yep, similar story here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html

[SteppingRazor]

51. Oh, quit joking.

I mean, come on now. You can't be serious ... er ... can you?

[cali]

67. I predict Obama will win by 2 or 3 pts in OH

your post is foolish. It's simply wishful thinking. My prediction is based on the polls and trends. If he loses it will be very narrowly. And he'll win in TX.

[easy_b94]

73. Yes...I think you are on th something

[JVS]

74. If he is so hopeless there, why does Hillary need to campaign there? Maybe she should be in PA...

or be taking a rest.