Texas Peeps, Help Me Out

[NeedleCast]

So I'm browsing through the CNN political ticker stories this afternoon and I come across a pretty uninteresting article about the debate last night that didn't have much fresh to say until the last paragraph, which I'll quote here:

"Clinton is hosting an "Economic Solutions Summit" in Zanesville on Wednesday, followed by two rallies in the towns of St. Clairsville and Belpre. She heads to Texas late Thursday for the remainder of the week, hitting the major media markets of Houston, San Antonio and Dallas/Fort Worth."

If you're a Democrat who is trying to re-claim a lead in Texas, why not go to Austin? Austin sits in what is usually the ONLY county in Texas to "vote blue" during general elections. It is a very progressive city and one where Democrats have always had strong appeal. If you're going to hold a democratic rally in Texas, isn't Austin the place you want to be?

[Avalux]

1. She may well end up in Austin too at some point, but -

If you examine the way delegates are clumped in districts, those cities are crucial. Austin is too, but to a lesser extent.

Those of us here in San Antonio are loving it - Clinton AND Obama will be in our city Friday night for rallies. Dueling rallies - lol!

:hi:

[TomInTib]

2. Obama owns Austin.

Clinton doesn't stand a chance in Austin, so there is nothing at all to be gained from hitting Austin.

GWB only took Harris (Houston) and Dallas Counties by a couple of points last election.

[Crooked Moon]

35. this is true.

not only does he have the college support, there are a lot of youngish techies here. plus he's been running ads non-stop.

[efhmc]

3. Probably because it does not have the numbers that the others have

and because the debate was there and because it is thought to be Obama country and because it is already pretty blue. Obama already had a rally there. I am not sure about Hillary.

[NeedleCast]

6. I was curious about that as well

regarding whether Hillary had any major rallies in Austin.

Maybe someone can shed some light on that?

[griffi94]

7. chelsea was here last week

[NeedleCast]

9. Any idea what the turnout was like?

[thevoiceofreason]

4. Bill is there today, I think.

[griffi94]

5. maybe not

san antonio has a huge hispanic population and is largely blue collar same goes for houston. i'm less familiar with dallas, but ft worth also has a major blue collar hispanic population. while austin has some of that it's largely a college town with a high percent of tech workers, professionals and politicians, it being the capital of texas and all.

[NeedleCast]

8. I lived there

I lived in Austin from age four to 23 and that's a good description. I guess my thinking was that if you want to have a big, vocal rally, which I think is something Hillary needs right now, you go to Austin to do it.

[griffi94]

12. yeah but a big vocal rally in austin won't hit the demographic she needs

san antonio will probly help her a bit, and i expect she'll get a solid majority from the counties in the rio grande valley.
i haven't lived in houston for well over 20 years so i have no idea what hillarys prospects look like there, other than what i've already posted.

[UALRBSofL]

10. Oh, the jig is up ! ! ! !

You know our Hillary strategy. We can't let any thing else slip up any more. Austin's youth population is pretty good. But, Hillary's base is the older folks who traditionally vote for her. That said, I can't reveal whether Hillary's going to be in Austin or not. We can't let our enemy know what our strategy is. :)

[crispini]

11. The Hillary campaign does not seem to be trying big rallies in Texas.

For example, Bill Clinton was in Dallas yesterday for three or four smallish GOTV rallies. He spoke from the back of a truck in a parking lot for about 20 minutes. This, despite the fact that our facility for Shakespeare in the Park was only a few hundred feet away -- permanent stage, sound, lighting. I can only think that they are deliberately trying to project this down-home grassroots feel to their rallies. It was certainly small.

The Clinton campaign also seems to be pulling heavily on existing Democratic "machines." All of the old-guard Hispanic political families sent representatives.

FYI, Dallas county voted for Kerry and Dallas Dems swept local races in 2006. This county is now blue. :hi:

[griffi94]

13. isn't ron kirk from dallas

i voted for him against john cornyn....goddamnit how i hate john cornyn.

[crispini]

16. Ron Kirk is indeed from Dallas. And has endorsed Obama.

He introduced him at the rally last week. And Emmitt Smith was there too! :D

[NeedleCast]

22. Emmitt! Nice!

I've converted to the glorious New York Football Giants but Emmitt was always a class act and one of the all time greats.

[griffi94]

29. you've converted to the who?

the new york giants? ok your texas privelages have been revoked, you're no longer allowed to tell people you lived here....just joking
anybody better than the patriots lol

[NeedleCast]

33. What Can I say

when Jerry Jones bought the team I was done...that and the fact that being a Cowboys fan living in D.C. can be hazerdous to your health.

[griffi94]

28. i hope if kay bailey hutchinson

runs for governor next time ron kirk runs for her seat, i'd be proud to vote for him again.
i'm glad to see that the gop no longer has a stranglehold on dallas.. iknow some of the most rabid right winger state legislators came from the dallas area. i think kent gruesendorf was from garland, man what hateful MF he was, but he got kicked out on his ass a couple of years ago.

[crispini]

30. Ron Kirk is rumored to be disenchanted with politics.

But I think we'll have some humdinger candidates in 2 years if the fall goes as well as I hope it does! :crossed fingers:

I would like to see Barbara Radnofsky take another shot at something. I was very impressed with her as a candidate.

[griffi94]

32. hard to fault mr. kirk there

i myself am frequently disenchanted with politics, and living in texas, well you know what a character builder it can, being a democrat here lol.

[ctaylors6]

18. Ron Kirk was mayor of Dallas

[WolverineDG]

14. 200-300 in the Clintonland of Hidalgo nt

[crispini]

17. What SD is that? nt

[WolverineDG]

21. update

it appears to be SD 20, Chuy Hinojosa's district.

dg

[crispini]

25. OK, SD 20 = 4 delegates, 1 alternate.

So it's a pretty average one. Most of them seem to be 4. Are you thinking it'll go 3/4 for Clinton?

The bigs are:

SD 14 - 8 delegates
SD 13 - 7
SD 23 - 6
SD 25 - 6

I would not be surprised if SD 23 went 5/6 for Obama.

[WolverineDG]

26. Possibly

No way she's getting all 4. Same with my SD. At best a 3-1 split, quite possibly 2-2.

dg

[crispini]

27. Man, if they all go 50/50, this will SUCK.

I believe you have to get something like 67% to get 3, in the 4 delegate SDs. You would have to really get a blowout to get all 4. That's not practically possible.

[WolverineDG]

34. Yup

she was counting on blow out numbers to get all 4 (around 85%), but that ain't happenin' in my SD. Best case for her is 3-1, but I'm thinking it's going to be 2-2.

dg

[NeedleCast]

20. Nice to hear that!

Good to see Dallas turning. Hopefully (regardless of the nominee) the whole state will be blue for the GE!

And thanks for the info!

[crispini]

23. well, maybe kinda purple

it would be nothing short of a miracle if it turned blue. :D

[ctaylors6]

15. Austin is reliably dem, but Dallas county and Harris (Houston) aren't as lopsided as you might think

I'm sorry I can't find numbers, but it's not like Travis county (austin) is 90% dem and Dallas & Harris 20%. Travis definitely is majority D; the big two are (wild guess/estimate) probably in the 40% democratic range. In fact, Dallas County is trending democratic over last few years. In 2006, I think almost all the judges turned over from R to D.

Finally, keep in mind the relative populations. Travis county is around (probably under) a million. Dallas county (which does NOT include Fort Worth, just Dallas and big surrounding suburbs) is approx 2.5 million, and Harris is about 4 million. Again, I don't have exact numbers, but I would think in pure numbers (not percentages) still more Ds in dallas and houston areas than in Austin. (I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong :))

Finally I'm pretty sure Bill Clinton is in Austin this week for rallies, including one at a college (not UT).

[NeedleCast]

24. Hope it didn't sound like i was talking down to other Texas

counties. I didn't mean to come off that way. It's been about 10 years since I've lived outside of Austin now so I'm not as up to speed on politics in TX as I used to be.

[griffi94]

31. i'm not 100% sure

but travis county, i believe i read recently, is pushing close to a million and a half. don't take that to the bank because i don't remember where i saw it and it could be bullshit. i do know the austin metro area is well over 1 million but that splits between 3 counties. travis, williamson, and hayes.

[SteveM]

19. Having lived in Austin for 37 years now, here is my opinion:

The University of Texas (50,000 students) and the "counter-culture" of Austin are strong left-of-center presences in Texas. (Austin is variously called the "Athens of Texas," "Moscow on the Colorado," "Retirement community for young people," etc.) This is right up Obama's alley, esp. since, in defiance of standard political science, young voters are a real force in this election.

Perhaps more important, these activists do a lot of leg work; much more than the "numbers" would otherwise indicate for a town Austin's size. Could be Hillary Clinton's campaign is a little reticent to hold a "mass" rally, lest it be compared unfavorably to Obama's "big shoe." I believe Obama drew almost 20,000 last summer; the largest rally in Austin was 25,000+ (1970) in the week after Kent & Jackson State killings. If you have been in a BIG rally or march, you are unlikely to forget it. Obama knows this, and no media outlet is going to ignore such.

As I am writing this, PBS is broadcasting the roiling sounds of one of those big honkers -- and analyzing the phenomenon as well!

[TexasObserver]

36. Hillary will get beat like a drum in Austin.