My **theory** : HRC's slide is the result of WJC's greatest success ......

[Stinky The Clown]

This clicked for me today when I heard John Lewis's statement about why he is switching from Clinton to Obama. And it wasn't anything substantive to that decision. It was when he said, so tenderly and passionately, how much he loved and respected the Clintons.



It occurred to me at that moment. While Lincoln was the emancipator and Johnson make being black "legal", Bill Clinton was the first president to work actively to truly empower black people.

Barack Obama is the natural next step of that empowerment in 21st century America.

Please note ...... this is a personal theory that came as a shot to me just this afternoon. I'm sure, as some of you read this, you'll find ways to parse my words and interject into your impressions and comments what you think I was thinking when I wrote this. Please take it at face value with no second agenda. If I have somehow disrespected anyone, please know that was not my intent. I am a white guy who can only guess at this sort of thing.

I welcome comments.

[babylonsister]

1. Hmmm. I have a different theory regarding WJC and SC, but I'll

keep it to myself.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. I didn't really see this connected to SC ..... or any other specific primary event

My thought was on a more esoteric level and it includes recent history all the back to the early Clinton years.

[eleny]

2. I saw Lewis interviewed on tv today

It was just the end of the interview. He said something about what was happening in the country and how it was massive and historic. Definitely my paraphrase. But it was definitely something monumental in his opinion. And that was why he switched sides.

This would support your assessment which strikes me as entirely plausible.

[Stinky The Clown]

3. I'm going to give this a kick because its a serious post and I'd like to see some discussion of it.

[NashVegas]

4. Personally

I'd give Dean more credit. When he dropped out, Obama was among the first of the 'Dean Dozens,' DFA endorsed, publicized, and raised money for, IIRC.

[Avalux]

5. I think there's some merit to your theory.

Bill Clinton did do his part to advance the cause of minorities in this country; so it would stand to reason that in some way, Barack Obama's success and acceptance are related to that.

I would also like to think as a society, we are advancing as each new generation matures; young people are exposed to a global world where other cultures and behaviors are easily accepted.

Barack Obama represents the global world view IMHO and that's one reason why young people are so drawn to him. He is a forward-thinking, tolerant man who - instead of fighting those we disagree with, is willing to discuss the differences. This country is ready for that now after the last 7 1/2 years of bullying the entire world.

Obama happens to be the right man at the right time; with many different reasons why supporting that statement. He has the opportunity to lead our country and the world forward and I believe he can.

[rox63]

6. I saw an interview with Lewis, and it's clear this was a very difficult decision for him

I believe he said something (I don't have the exact words) to the effect of this being more difficult for him than leading the march on Selma, where he was brutally beaten by police.

[cooolandrew]

7. Yep, never argued myself personally that WJC was racial just mis-spoke, but yeah Obama is next level

[mckeown1128]

9. I don't really see a connection between Bill's policy's and

Obama's career. Could you give some examples for all of us to poor over?

[UALRBSofL]

10. Husb2 I follow your train of thought

And can see your idea of why he changed his support. But, there have been things that John Lewis has done that I'm confused about. He initially supported Clinton, then switched to Obama and then back to Clinton, then back to Obama. He's been waffling for quite some time. He's a super delegate and I understand they can switch but am curious why he has waffled so much. This isn't an attacking question, but, just trying to figure out what he's thinking. :)

[JimGinPA]

11. Competition For His Seat

80% of his district voted for Obama. He is facing stiff competition for his seat for the first time in a long time from a younger candidate who supports Obama.

[Stinky The Clown]

15. I think Lewis is really conflicted ......

...... at first by his obvious fondness and respect for the Clintons, then by the trend of the party, then by his loyalty, then by the political realities.

But I wasn't actually talking about Lewis. His statement on teevee was really just the catalyst that sparked this idea in my brain.

[L0oniX]

12. K&R

[elixir]

13. Please explain how BO is the natural next step? I believe this race is about the best candidate,

not the most historically significant.

[Stinky The Clown]

17. I don't think this race is about **any** one thing.

If I were idealistic and completely naive, I might find it to be about one honorable issue. But it isn't.

As to how Obama is the next logical step (assuming my theory is at all valid .... and I'm not sure it is since it is only a theory), he is a black man running on a lot of things, but race simply isn't one of them. However, I hasten to add that, for many of his supporters, I would wager damn near anything that his race **does** matter to them. That can be good or bad, depending on one's view of black people. My theory would hold, then, that for most people for whom race matters, it matters positively.

And some of that credit has to go back to Bill Clinton's actively working to empower black people.

When one discusses this, one can easily magnify this out of proportion to its importance. Even is my theory is valid, it is but one small part of the far, far larger story that we're witnessing.

[robbedvoter]

26. Should be, never is - look who is now in the WH. MSM always manipulates the

electorate - up to a point - then Diebold takes the slack. It's pretty much cooked now.

[Straight Shooter]

14. I wish I had bookmarked the article which addressed this very issue

Something I was reading last week which explained the dynamics of this election re Hillary and Barack. In effect, the author noted in a wry manner that, in regard to the Clintons and their history of dedication to helping minorities overcome obstacles, they invoked the universal law that "no good deed shall go unpunished."

The article was much more in-depth than what I cited, analyzing 4 factors altogether, but he was in agreement with your perception.

[Armstead]

16. I partially agree with you, but.....

I don't think Bill Clinton was the first president to actively support empowerment.

In different ways, Eienhower, Kennedy and Johnson all took impoirtant steps to advance civil rights, based on conditions of their times. Johnson especially took the biggest step at perhaps the biggest political cost.

[Stinky The Clown]

19. I acknowledge that in my OP

Each step was incremental. Clinton's was the biggest and the smallest. The least and most important. He could not have accomplished what he did were it not for (mostly) Johnson's work. Clinton didn't actually do much, at least not legislatively. Instead, he simply practiced real, tangible empowerment.

And it stuck, even in spite of the intervening years.

[UALRBSofL]

22. Armstead, not trying to go off topic but

I just don't see Johnson as being the civil rights advocate. I will agree he signed the civil rights bill but I think JFK had pretty much started things in motion but unfortunately was murdered. I think Johnson was politically pressured to sign the bill than JFK had pretty much ironed out. If you know of things Johnson did for civil rights that were pertinent I'd love to read them. :)

[Armstead]

27. Here's a reasonablyobjective and balanced overview

http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/Lyndon_Baines_Johnson.htm

[Johnny__Motown]

18. I thought it was because Hillary hired cronies to run her campaign and pissed away all the money

That and assuming she would win by super tuesday and she didn't plan on continuing beyond it.


Ready on day none

[Stinky The Clown]

20. Thanks for playing ......

.... and pissing in this thread with some waaaaay off topic candidate shit.

Here, you win the home version of the game ..... go play with yourself.

[grantcart]

21. Lewis has always had my respect

As for your personal note, it is something to realize that what is happening in daily incremental steps in this campaign is someday going to be as significant as Dred Scot, Appomattox, Brown v Board of Education. And with any mass movement that has spontaneous ignition people come to it by different routes. I appreciated you telling us yours. Your kindness in your penultimate sentence in the 4th paragraph is endearing and very rare here.

[texas_indy]

23. I think * gets some credit for Obama being so successful in his run.

The evil one, and his crony in the WH, have turned so many people off in such a major way that the people want a complete break from anything that can remotely be tied to a bush or cheny. Unfortunately for Hillary, the clinton name will always be tied to the bush name, and many people want to avoid the constant stream of scandals that happened in the 90s. It doesn't matter who's fault they were, but what matters is people are sick of them and don't want a repeat history.

IMO, Obama represents a MAJOR break from the past. It is icing on the cake that not only is he qualified to be a president, but that he will also make an excellent president.


Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[Stinky The Clown]

24. I'm not so sure that accrues solely to Obama .....

I suspect the Bush animosity would have benefited almost anyone we could have run pretty much equally. No doubt Obama's being helped by Bush, but that's not the only reason he's doing so well. (And neither is my theory, if correct, the only reason.)

[robbedvoter]

25. Bushie media, bushie money and bushie voters in open primaries - that's my theory

It'll probably get confirmed in GE - as this was just phase one of get rid of Dems plan.

As for disloyalty/ peer pressure - I let the individuals involved wrestle with their own conscience.