TX early voting stats: Dems: 511,809, Repukes: 172,858

[rainbow4321]

Look at these totals....includes in person and mail in early votes!!! TX Dems outnumbering repukes like 3 to 1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And it's not even next Tuesday yet!! Site updates daily.




http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml

Dems:
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/feb26demo.shtml


Repukes:
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/feb26rep.shtml

[MannyGoldstein]

1. Amazing. Just Amazing.

The Republican Party is about to get downsized - their jobs will be off-partied to Democrats.

[Rogelio]

12. Very flawed analysis

In 2004, Democratic turnout in the primaries was 16.2 million. Republican turnout was less than half as much: 7.9 million.

Guess who won the presidency? Let's not get overconfident.

[LisaL]

19. Yep. Exactly right. There were the exact same claims made in

2004. And last I checked, Bush is still president.

[MannyGoldstein]

20. Oh Yeah? Take This!

In 2004, the Republican primary was *uncontested*. Why would people show up for an uncontested primary? It's not a primary, it's an IQ test.

[LisaL]

21. Well, McCain got in the bag this time, so it's basically

un-contested now as well.

[MannyGoldstein]

24. But! And It's A BIG But...

These are early returns - many could have been from before Gramps had it in the bag.

[lastliberalintexas]

29. Um, because there are other races on the ballot

You know, even we backwards hicks in Texas have to elect people into county government, sheriff's offices, constables and the like. There were reasons for repubs to turn out then, just as there are now even though their race is all but sewn up. Granted, in most parts of this state those races are still decided in the Dem primary, and that also causes us to have inflated numbers for Dem primary voters.

If Texas goes Dem in Nov, Satan better find him a heater cause hell just froze.

[anigbrowl]

27. True, but remember they had an incumbent in 2004 who faced no serious challenge.

You are right that we shouldn't get overconfident, but it's OK to be in a good mood about it :-)

[democrattotheend]

49. True, but there was no Republican primary then

Democratic turnout has surpassed Republican turnout by a bunch this year even when the Republican race was wide open.

Maybe the stats now are less telling since the Republican race is less competitive at this point, but they have said that Texas could be close between McCain and Huckabee (Huckabee has beaten him in a lot of Southern states), and Texas does their congressional and state primary at the same time, so I read that there are a lot of competitive down-ballot Republican races. Of course, the presidential race IS getting more attention.

I think the Democratic turnout this season has been encouraging, but you are right in saying that it does not necessarily mean we will win.

[MadBadger]

2. With John McCain having locked up this nomination, lets not read too much into this.

[babylonsister]

4. I don't know whether to laugh or cry; this IS Texas. nt

[stevedeshazer]

3. Well it's more like three to one, but I share your enthusiasm

Sweet.

[rainbow4321]

7. Sorry....I corrected it. n/t

[dchill]

5. Whatever else that means, it's absolutely...

!!!!HUGH!!!!

[LisaL]

6. I would have been optimistic, but I heard the same claims in 2004.

There were also claims that democrats would outnumber republicans.
Last I checked, Bush is still president.

[TexasObserver]

8. Bush killed the Republican party in Texas!! Yaaaaaaayyy!!

No one wants to claim the SOB.

[maseman]

9. Folks get a grip

This is a non-issue for Texas. Republicans know that McCain has it in the bag. There's no reason to go vote. The Dems are still neck in neck in the primary so they have a reason to vote.

I will say the early states like Iowa and NH this made a big difference when there was no clear lead in either party. But this doesn't mean anything in Texas.

[TexasObserver]

10. You don't know what you're talking about.

I am not certain if you have any area of expertise in politics, but clearly, you have none regarding Texas. Stick to making your typically mindless posts and you'll be fine.

[maseman]

11. OK then what does it mean?

[TexasObserver]

15. It means Texas voters are flooding the Democratic primary in record numbers to vote for Obama.

The meme that Republicans are crossing over in mass numbers because their race is over for president is bunk. It's another Clinton storyline intended to explain why Obama will beat her like a rented mule down here. I'm predicting an 5-15 point win for Obama, and I've been predicting it that way for weeks, since long before any poll showed it close here. The bottom line: many first time Democratic voters and many indies voting in the Democratic primary.

If you really want to understand what is happening in Texas, I invite you to read my journal entries on the topic.

[loveangelc]

26. his own internals have him down fwiw.

[TexasObserver]

32. No, they don't.

Please tell me you're not going to start your crazy talk again. You followed me around for two weeks asking the same question over and over.

[loveangelc]

36. asking you questions is not "following you around"

Internal polling shows Obama trailing in both states, although the gap is narrowing. The Obama game plan for the next six days is simple: Combine personal appearances with heavy advertising and strong grass-roots organizing, and hope that late deciders break their way. Obama officials are more optimistic about Texas, where Clinton's natural working-class white constituency constitutes a smaller portion of the electorate.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/02/27/ST2008022703658.html?sid=ST2008022703658

[TexasObserver]

37. Do you really think they would tell the Post they're ahead?!

[loveangelc]

38. I think you're the one with OCD if you're getting this upset when someone asks you questions.

You're saying they lied to the post because they clearly said they were behind.

and I am in inquisitive person, mmmmkkk...

[TexasObserver]

39. Yes, they lied to the Post. It's done all the time.

The last thing Obama will do is tell the Post he's ahead in Texas.

But you're free to believe whatever you choose.

[loveangelc]

40. I guess you're right, but theyve leaked when they were ahead before...

[TexasObserver]

42. It depends on the place in the overall campaign, and what they're trying to accomplish.

In the case of Texas, the last thing they want to do the last 5 days is suggest they know they're ahead. Bad for their turnout. Best to say "we're getting close and closing" than to say "it's in the bag." Obama needs a knockout punch in Texas. This is where he can ice the pledged delegates lead.

[ctaylors6]

14. I'm TX and have lots of Rs in family. All are voting in Dem primary;sad to say, all voting McCain GE

I know this is just anecdotal, and I'm kind of cynical, but there you go.

[maseman]

16. My friend that is exactly my point

The number doesn't mean anything because it is so chaotic. Look, I do statistical research for a living. It is almost impossible to get your arms around if this number is good or not for the Dems because you have people switching parties, people staying home and not interested, people not bothering to vote for McCain because they know he will win, etc.

The goal for us is to get a Dem elected. My goal is to stay focused on things that make a difference. These amounts of people voting Dem in Texas, Ohio, etc. really do not mean anything and cannot be used statistically to answer any questions besides who wins more votes in the primary.

Sorry you think my posts are mindless but we all have various ways we use DU. Many times I use it for my anger or frustration relief. Sometimes that is in the form of humor, mindlessness, deep thought or jut to vent. It is a blog full of anonymous people all doing the same thing.

[TexasObserver]

22. Well, you are a guy in Ohio

You are repeating something you heard somewhere and don't have the slightest idea of what is going on in Texas. Those of us who actually work Texas Democratic politics and have for decades may understand the market better than you.

The explosion of Democratic voters in Texas is NOT Republicans crossing over to foil the Democratic primary. I will invite you to read my journal and the posts of thevoiceofreason and Crispini, if you really want to have some idea of what we're seeing on the ground.

I'm on record (and have been for three weeks) that Obama wins Texas by 5-15 points and the delegates spread will be greater than the point spread.

I don't try to call Ohio, and you shouldn't try to call Texas. Why don't you apply your expertise to Ohio, and pick a number? I'm confident of my abilities in Texas. Let's see what you've got on Ohio. Tell us who wins Ohio and the spread.

[maseman]

23. Golly I forgot I live in a bubble in Ohio

I wasn't alive to live through Kennedy's assassination in Texas therefore I must not be able to have an opinion nor know anything about it. You are extremely arrogant and very much a turn-off.

Gee you're calling a race with a 10% point window in favor for Obama. I have no doubt in my mind that Obama will win Texas (sorry I made another opinion on YOUR state.) I also wouldn't deny that he may win by your sweeping prediction of 5-15%.

I never said that the reason why the Dems numbers are so much higher than the Republicans is because people are crossing over. I do believe that there are a significant amount of younger people and motivated people EVERYWHERE (not just your state of Texas) going to the polls for the Dem primaries. But there is also no reason for a Republican at this point to go to the polls to vote for McCain (or Huckabee) since McCain has it in the bag.

Yes Obama will win Ohio. It will be very close here.

[rainbow4321]

25. There's a bunch of reasons--they're called local elections

This is not just a national primary election, it is for every local race, also...whether it be for sheriff, county commissioner, or any other local political office.

Once they tell the poll worker "Democratic Party", they don't get to say "but for the local level I want the Republican ballot, please". I'm sure someone from TX will correct me if I am wrong, but I can't see TX repukes (at least the ones around me) giving up the chance to vote locally in 5, 8 or 10 races just to jack with the one Dem voter race/turnout. If they are taking time out to go to the polls, they are going to ask for the repuke ballot.

[TexasObserver]

30. You are absolutely correct in your facts and reasoning.

Texas has been under Republican control for most of the past 13 years. We're talking about every judge in some major counties. We're talking about constables, precinct commissioners, county attorneys, district attorneys, justices of the peace, tax assessors, probate judges, state reps, state senators (not all), congressmen and women, and more.

In many jurisdictions, the Republican primary has been the place where the general election is decided. So, in the real Republican strongholds, crossover voting is suicide.

Besides, Huckabee has the evangelical following, which is very strong in urban and rural Texas. Does anyone think they're going to miss voting for Huckster? It's disingenuous.

[maseman]

34. Local elections are not big turn-outs for voters

US and Local Voter Turnout: Nearly Lowest in World's Democracies

http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/2007/02/us_and_local_vo.html

Here's one of many reports on how bad Americans are at voting. The Presidential elections get the highest turnout (a nice wedge issue like gays or abortions help), state-wide elections or second and local elections end up being the least for turnout.

[lastliberalintexas]

35. But in many parts of this state those local elections

are determined in the Dem party. Either counties in which local government is still Dem controlled or else races in which the repub party smartly puts up just one candidate, so that their primary is often meaningless.

As just one example, Hardin County Dem primary voters will be much larger than repub just because it has hotly contested races for sheriff and DA which will be determined in the Dem primary. But if Hardin County goes Dem for president in Nov (with ANY Dem, it wouldn't have mattered the candidate), then the End of Times might actually be upon us. :)


And yeah, repubs will cross over just to screw with our primary. You remember the Maddox v Fisher Senate race? Though I'm not arguing that they are intentionally doing it this time, but it wouldn't surprise me since they've done it in the past.

[TexasObserver]

41. Kountze! Hardin County. Deep East Texas. 50,000 . You're right about some small rural counties.

And yes, there could be some folks in those counties who vote Republican for president in the general who might vote in the Democratic primary.

I have a hard time seeing such voters casting a vote for Hillary, since they typically hate her worse than any other Democrat in the nation. Those are the same voters, however, who would be most drawn to Huckabee in the R primary.

[WolverineDG]

45. It depends on the area

If there are contested races in the fall, & the Rs have a contested primary for a local race, then they are voting R. If not, they are either NOT voting, or voting D so they can pick who they want to win in the local races. I'm sure some are voting for Hillary so she'll lose to McCain in the fall, while others are getting a kick out of voting against her now, others are simply not voting in the presidential primary. Can't give you specific numbers, but that's what I'm hearing from the local Rs (and they are few & far between in my neck of the woods).

dg

[TexasObserver]

28. Glad you agree with the call I made for Texas three weeks ago.

I don't know if Obama wins Ohio, but your hunch sounds good to me.

This discussion was necessary because you chose to treat an obvious hyperbole as serious, and responded snidely. If you want to know what I think about the race in Texas and why, read my journal entries and other numerous posts on Texas. As I state repeatedly, I don't try to call any state but Texas.

As for JFK, that's a non sequitur, and irrelevant to our discussion.

[maseman]

31. Your point is I shouldn't comment on Texas

Anyone can read. I see you hobby is reading. Just because someone lives somewhere doesn't mean that person cannot possible know anything about what is going on somewhere else. I commuted to NYC for years for business nearly weekly. I didn't live in NYC but knew as much as someone who did.

Snide comments? Come on friend. The "mindless" comment was awfully snide. I read your journal articles. I'm happy you have some kids that turned out well. I'm 33 with some of those kids myself. All boys. Work 10-12 hours per day to feed them (my god can they eat.) My wife is a 7th/8th grade inner city school teacher. Gets paid shit to work her backside off daily. I travel the country working about 40-45 weeks per year. Got two masters degrees and a pretty decent overall education. I look forward to the day I can sit around and post tons of stuff to a blog and make my own journal. Good for you.

Go Obama. I'm going to bed.

[blogslut]

44. You're not looking at the numbers from a Texan's perspective

If you want to look at primary turnout from a national perspective, that's fine. What you're failing to see is what is happening to the Democratic party in my state.

In 2004, in Dallas county, for the first three days of early primary voting, 1,162 Democrats showed up. In 2006, that three-day total was 2,145. This year, 6,847 Democrats voted in the first 3 days of early-voting primaries. For El Paso county it was 890 for 2004, 1,227 for 2006, and now, 2,623 for 2008.

Maybe you don't find these numbers meaningful because you live outside of Texas. To this Texan, the upsurge in Democratic voters is sweet, sweet music.

[TexasLady]

50. you sure got that right!

I have been watching the numbers in my county, and it IS sweet to see them rise each day.
And you can bet that I live in one of THE reddest counties there is.
and I definitely do not believe that Repukes are switching over, at least not too many. Thier damned pride wouldnt let them in my area anyway, someone from their church might 'see' them doing it. :P And when I voted, there was a long list of other local candidates to vote for on both ballots. I doubt they'd appreciate their supporters going to the otherside just to assure one candidate over another gets the Dem nomination for Presidency.

[TexasObserver]

17. riiiiight

And they're all missing their chance to vote in the Republican primary, where many local races are determined, just because they want to vote against Hillary! Thanks for contributing to the Clinton cover story for why she's getting her ass kicked.

Got any more tall tales about your "relatives?"

[ctaylors6]

18. actually 4 out of 5 told me they're voting FOR hillary; again just anecdotal ...

edited to add: there aren't any local races that are seriously contested from what I understand

[thevoiceofreason]

13. And it is better than that

that is only the top 15 out of 254 counties.

That's right folks, 254. It's a big-ass state.

Expand those figures proportionately, and you are near 850,000 early votes -- more than the entire 2004 primary election -- including election day.

Texas will out-vote Florida in the primaries.

[Lisa0825]

33. I am looking forward to my precinct caucus!

4 years ago, I was the only one who showed up in my precinct. At that time, I'd just leaned about it, and most people I knew had no idea you could vote twice in Texas. I am extremely curious to see how thhe turnout is this year! Totally on pins and needles!

[WolverineDG]

46. 2 showed up at mine

me & some college kid. we had no idea what we were supposed to do & the election judge said we couldn't have a caucus because it was "illegal." At which point the 2 republicans who showed up cited the election code, got her name & reported her to the elections administrator. (yes there are good Rs out there).

I've since found out that the local political elite has used this particular tactic to keep out any grassroots movements. And they are all supporting Hillary, so I have an extra reason to not vote for her.

dg

[Thepricebreaker]

43. Don't delude yourself - McCain already locked the nomination - no reason for repukes to vote.

[Lisa0825]

47. There are a lot of local races in the Republican Primary too.

I think those who are regular primary voters would still vote even if mcCain "locked it up," when there are several other primary races that are NOT "locked up."

[thevoiceofreason]

48. Especially the Harris County DA and County Judge