Maybe Spin, Maybe Not, Axelrod lowers expectations, Clinton leading in internal TX and OH polls

[Herman Munster]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/02/27/ST2008022703658.html?sid=ST2008022703658

Inside the Obama team, the mood Wednesday was a mixture of relief that the last scheduled debate with Clinton was over, believing their candidate delivered a solid performance, and wariness about where the Ohio and Texas races were headed.

"We believe we're going to do well, but we just don't know," said David Axelrod, Obama's senior political adviser. Given the many twists and turns of the Democratic race so far, he added, "I don't think anyone at this point feels comfortable making predictions."

Internal polling showed Obama still trailing in both states, although the gap was narrowing.

[Colobo]

1. The gap is narrowing. That's what matters.

[AtomicKitten]

9. It's all in the trend.

;)

[EmilyAnne]

34. Yep. The trend signals an Obama win. I can't wait. n/t

[democrattotheend]

37. I hope so, but let's not get too confident

Keep phone banking, or travel to OH or TX if you can. We can't get complacent or overconfident here. We are still about 5 points down in Ohio, and I think that Obama has to win Ohio or at least come close to avoid concerns about his viability there in the general.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

12. yes

[jackson_dem]

21. There are only 5 days left...

[anamandujano]

22. Everybody "knows him" already.

[MadHound]

2. Gap is narrowing dramatically and quickly

He's virtually tied in Texas, if not pulling ahead, and is coming up fast in Ohio. Polls have place him somewhere between four and eleven percent behind Hillary in Ohio earlier this week, way up from the twenty one points he was down a month ago.

[Herman Munster]

3. so did the California polls a week before super tuesday

[Egnever]

4. Very true

[KittyWampus]

6. and what was that you kept on saying about California? OH! That's right, early voting.

Early voting that started when it was name recognition.

Your girl needs to win Texas and Ohio by 15 points. Good luck with that.

[avrdream]

32. Something important happens the day before Texas and Ohio.

What was it? I can't remember.

Oh yeah, the Rezko trial.

I wonder if the news will make a difference.

[MadHound]

8. Yup, and many other polls in states that Obama won

That does indeed seem to be his MO. Sometimes, as in California, he comes up short, however most of the time he's won out:shrug:

[loveangelc]

11. are internals more reliable than other polls?

[MadHound]

15. Are any polls "reliable"?

Give me any poll taken, internal or external, and I can hit it six ways from Sunday proving that it is "unreliable" Why? Because all polls are based on probabilities arising from various different populations of people polled. That always leaves a large room for error there, who did you poll, what weight did you give them, how many etc. That's always why it's best to consult a wide range of polls hence I gave you the range from 4-11:shrug: I seriously doubt that internal polls are, in all honesty any better than other reputable polls, especially since campaign generally higher reputable pollsters or polling firms.

[NJSecularist]

16. Yes, they are.

But since this article is second hand information, we don't know if it is true.

[loveangelc]

17. well someone from the campaign said they were down. i guess someone on their campaign

let that slip? I say that because hillary seems rather confident she'll win both states so im guessing her internal polls show the same thing...

[MadHound]

18. No, I guess somebody on their campaign came up with a reasonable number

And decided to go with it. That's the thing, polling is an inexact science, the best you or anybody else can do is come up with a reasonable number, put a ± on it and go with it, knowing all along it's much more likely than not that it's wrong:shrug:

One thing is known, despite the fuzziness of the numbers, is that Obama is coming up quickly from behind, which has been a trend of his all along, one that he's won with. It's certainly not a trend that the Clinton camp should feel comfortable with at this point.

[Sensitivity]

35. Unfortunately negative media cycles is idamaging efforts in both states

[MadBadger]

5. A Tracking Poll that came out yesterday showing Hillary up 3 now has her down 1

He is now ahead there according to early voting, and will probably take the lead in the poll tomorrow.

[Renew Deal]

10. Which state?

[MadBadger]

14. Texas...here's the link

http://www.khou.com/news/local/stories/khou080227_tj_texaspoll.3a91068.html

[IndianaGreen]

7. Clinton at risk of losing Latino vote

Commentary: Clinton at risk of losing Latino vote

Now, with the all-important Texas primary approaching on March 4th, Obama is trailing Clinton with Latinos in the Lone Star state but he's making inroads there.

There is even a "Viva Obama" video featuring a group of mariachis singing the candidate's praises. Obama's recent success with Latinos is evidence that Hillary's support in that community is a mile wide and an inch thick.

That's understandable. Neither Bill nor Hillary Clinton has done much for Latinos in their public careers, and most of the support they enjoy from that community comes from brand loyalty -- the same thing that keeps Latinos coming back to one kind of laundry detergent keeps them coming back to the Clinton name.

In this election, Hillary has tarnished the brand with mistakes. During a debate in Los Angeles, she answered a question by pitting undocumented Latino immigrants against African-Americans.

She blamed jobs losses on "employers who exploit undocumented workers and drive down wages." And she mentioned an African-American who told her that he used to have construction jobs but now "the only people who get them anymore are people who are here without documentation."

Faced with the same question, Obama pointed out that African-Americans had high unemployment rates long "before the latest round of immigrants showed up" and cautioned against using the immigration issue to divide Americans.

Obama also insisted -- to rousing applause -- that blaming immigrants for unemployment among blacks amounts to "scapegoating" and said he wouldn't tolerate it. Score one for Obama. You can almost hear the mariachis warming up.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/27/navarette.opinion/index.html

[FrenchieCat]

13. Yep......

Those in Texas are getting informed on time! Thank goodness!

[anamandujano]

20. Undocumented workers and their families KNOW they are being exploited

but have no leverage because they are here illegally.

Hillary is going to allow them to get documented, assimilate, pay a small fine as they can afford it and take away the ground upon which the exploitative employers prosper.

Yeah, that is really bad for Latinos. :eyes:

They know the issues in their lives better than a political hack.

Only the great uniter Obama would think of trying to spin Hillary's position on this as pitting one race against another, divisive.

God, I hate this guy.

[woolldog]

26. But not give them Driver's Licenses

Yeah that makes sense. :eyes:

[anamandujano]

30. I would assume after they became citizens, they could enjoy all

privileges.

The main issue is that she was not pitting race against race and that her policy on this will help raise everyone's take home except the exploiters.

[Kokonoe]

19. I know who I want to win, I will hope for the best.n/t

[jlake]

23. What happens if Hillary wins both states by 5+ % .... Will Obama supporters

still want her to drop out, or will they acknowledge the race continues?

[cooolandrew]

24. I think with a combo of huge crowds and hard work he should get there. Not taking it for granted...

taking it for granted though.

[anonymous171]

25. Trailing is too strong a word.

More like neck and neck.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

27. Since you claim intimate knowledge of the Obama internals referred to as "trailing", please share

"Internal polling showed Obama still trailing in both states, although the gap was narrowing."

[cali]

31. I doubt very, very much if Axelrod would let on if their internals

show Obama leading. Lowering expectations seems to be something he plays at- as do most campaigns.

[SKKY]

28. Either way, unless Obama tanks, and looses TX and OH by more than 30...

...percentage points, it's a loss for HRC because she'll still loose ground in the Delegate count.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

29. Intriguing... you claim that if she wins both by exactly 30% she will lose net delegates?

Good to know.

[autorank]

33. Hey Herman....

I think it's the 'negative spin' (like the negative sell). They're lowering expectations to make
the wipe out ever stronger. Thepress just plays along with this crap...forever.

[Vinca]

36. For obvious reasons, they want to squash the idea of Obama as front runner.

Since being dubbed the presumed candidate, he's been trashed 24/7 by MSM. It goes with the territory, but there are advantages to being the underdog.