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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:31 PM
Original message
Xpost Texas polling data
Have not had a chance to read this yet, but I'll post for others and catch up later.
Short version is that it is a dead heat 50/50 for those that have voted.

http://www.khou.com/elections/poll/belopoll.pdf
DU Discussion here...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=180&topic_id=49273&mesg_id=49273
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crispini Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:34 PM
Response to Original message
1. Nice meaty poll, ya'll. Enjoy!
This is going to be one crazy next few days. :crazy:
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I'm voting tomorrow to get it over with.
I'll probably work GOTV, Tuesday. :hi:
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crispini Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:37 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. I'm waiting til the day, 'cause I'll be working the polls anyway.
I like doing GOTV but I like being a judge more. I like to know my neighborhood is being taken care of.

It's one long-ass day, though. :hi:
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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Good for you! We need them judges!
From the pdf...'cuz of re-redistricting...

2. The race in Texas is a mobilization battle for both campaigns to turn out their voters in the
state senate districts where they can gain the most advantage.
o For Barack Obama this means turning out younger voters, particularly men, African
American voters in Houston’s Senate District 13 and to a lesser extent, Senate District 15.
o For Hillary Clinton this means turning out Hispanic voters in various districts in the
Valley and around San Antonio, women 50 and older, and those for whom the economy
and health care are their top issues.
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crispini Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. The bigs are...
SD 14 - 8 delegates
SD 13 - 7
SD 23 - 6
SD 25 - 6

I would not be surprised if SD 23 went 5/6 for Obama.

Where is SD14 anyway, is that another Houston district?
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thevoiceofreason Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:36 PM
Response to Original message
3. That's great news.
The SUSA poll said the early vote had broken 51-46 (to date) for Hillary. Catching up. (I suspected that the number of Hillary folks would begin to wane after a week or so -- there are only so many of hem -- or at least so I thought)
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TAWS Donating Member (312 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:40 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. How long does early voting lasts? n/t
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thevoiceofreason Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. It will end Friday, with the likely result showing a 3 fold increase in votes
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thevoiceofreason Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:41 PM
Response to Original message
6. OK, having read this, it is garbage.
Public strategies is a not-so-good outfit.

They do not contact voters who have no land lines. They typically only contact double d's therefore leaving out about 40-50% of the current registered voters.

Having said all that, Barack folks -- take this to heart -- we have much more work to do. Do not get lazy or complacent. Call. Knock. Work. Demonstrate.

NOW
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crispini Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. This is why I wish they would give us more on their methodologies.
The cell phone thing can be weighted for; I've seen polls that indicate that cell phone voters very closely match their demographic peers, so you can adjust for that. But they didn't say whether or not that was done. Also, how did they pick who to call? They didn't say. Annoying.
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maseman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 12:19 AM
Response to Reply #9
21. Most of these polls are called RDD
Stands for random digit dialing. That way they get a good mix of whomever within a specific geography. The way it usually works is that companies sell phone numbers for certain groups with geographies. So if I wanted to reach households within 25 zipcodes I could call one of these companies and buy every phone number for households (non-businesses) within that area.

Once I have those I set up a CATI system (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing.) I type in a script and use an auto dialer to random dial those numbers I bought. Then I conduct my interviews.

Many companies do not use cell only households for various reasons. It is a problem since more and more households are cell only. These people are taken out of the mix for random digit dialing. Once that happens do we really have a representative sample?

Reason why many do not call cell only households is because it is expensive. Finding these people are sometimes very hard and you must do A LOT of calling to reach people. I lived in Ohio for two years before I changed my DC cell number. If a research company wanted me for DC info, they would find out that I wasn't useful to them since I lived in Ohio. A wasted call = lost money for an interview company.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 01:37 AM
Response to Reply #6
22. Good call. And you're also right about sprinting through the caucuses.
BELO.

They are evil and have been evil a long time.
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:48 PM
Response to Original message
10. There's something screwy here. The cross tabs have Obama winning 45-43
Look at question 10D. There's something not right here.
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crispini Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. What seems to be wrong? Just curious. nt
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thevoiceofreason Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Isn't this the outfit that picked Kinky to win the State House?
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Renew Deal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. The poll claims that Hillary is winning 46-43
But the crosstabs say it's the opposite.
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crispini Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:58 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Ooo. Yes, I see what you mean.
Hmmmmmmmmmm.
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-27-08 11:54 PM
Response to Original message
15. KHOU is a CBS affiliate. Belo is a conservative media group of longstanding.
I read it and am dubious of their ability or willingness to sample properly.

They acknowledge that they're finding those who report already voting as 50-50. In Texas, the early voting is typically more conservative, older, and mainly white. That's Hillary's best demo, and if she's only breaking even on those, she's losing on Tuesday.

Of course, other polls have shown the early voters breaking for Obama.

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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 12:02 AM
Response to Original message
17. This poll is screwy.... they overstate the white support and understate the black and latino support
They have

White: 62
Black: 14
Hispanic: 19

Al the other polls are showing something like this

White: 52
Black: 22
Latino: 25

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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 12:08 AM
Response to Original message
18. Heeeeerrrrreee's Belo! Part One
January 11, 2008

Belo Board of Directors Approves Spin-off Details That Will Create Separate Television and Newspaper Businesses


DALLAS Belo Corp. announced today that its Board of Directors has approved details of the Company's previously-announced plan to create separate television and newspaper businesses through the spin-off of its newspapers and related assets into a publicly-traded company called A. H. Belo Corporation. The transaction will be completed through a special tax-free stock dividend distribution to shareholders on all outstanding shares of Belo Corp. common stock.

The Board has established the close of business on January 25, 2008 as the record date and set a distribution ratio of 0.20 A. H. Belo shares for each share of Belo Corp. The distribution of A. H. Belo common stock is expected to occur on February 8, 2008 to Belo Corp. shareholders of record. Series A common stock of A. H. Belo will begin regular trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol AHC on February 11, 2008 and Series A common stock of Belo Corp. will continue to trade on the NYSE under the ticker symbol BLC. No fractional AHC shares will be distributed and cash will be paid in lieu of fractional shares.

Belo Corp. has requested a ruling from the Internal Revenue Service indicating that the spin-off will qualify as a tax-free distribution to Belo Corp. shareholders for U.S. federal income tax purposes. The Company expects to receive the ruling, which is a condition to the spin-off, by the end of the month. Any cash received by a Belo Corp. shareholder in lieu of fractional AHC shares will be taxable.

Belo Corp.'s Series A common stock will continue to trade "regular way" (inclusive of the A. H. Belo Series A common stock distribution) throughout the period leading up to and including the distribution date. Any holder of Belo Corp.'s Series A common stock who sells shares "regular way" on or before the distribution date will also be selling the entitlement to receive shares of A. H. Belo Series A common stock on the distribution date. On the first day of trading following the distribution date, all shares of Belo Corp. Series A common stock will trade without the benefit of the A. H. Belo Series A common stock distribution, and A. H. Belo Series A common stock will begin to trade independently on a "regular way" basis.

Belo Corp. has been advised by the NYSE that shares of AHC and BLC are expected to begin trading on a "when issued" basis on January 23, 2008, two business days prior to the record date, and continue through the distribution date of February 8, 2008. If such "when issued" markets develop, then "when issued" AHC shares will be traded under the symbol "AHC wi". "When issued" BLC shares, which will not include an entitlement to receive AHC shares in the stock dividend distribution, will be traded under the symbol "BLC wi". Investors are encouraged to consult with their financial advisors regarding the specific implications of trading AHC or BLC common stock on or before the distribution date.

The distribution ratio of 0.20 means that there will be approximately 17.6 million shares of A. H. Belo Series A shares outstanding at the spin-off and approximately 2.9 million shares of A. H. Belo Series B shares outstanding. Although A. H. Belo Series B shares do not trade on any exchange, they are convertible into Series A shares at any time on a one-to-one basis.

"This is an exciting step in Belo's strategic plan to enhance shareholder value by creating separate television and newspaper companies that will be very focused and responsive to changing industry dynamics," said Robert W. Decherd, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "We remain committed to delivering the highest quality news and information to our loyal audiences and advertisers as we finalize the spin-off. The transaction will deliver many benefits by the flexibility it affords to both companies."

Following the spin-off, Belo Corp. currently plans to pay an annual dividend of approximately $0.30 per share, paid quarterly, and A. H. Belo currently plans to pay an annual dividend of approximately $1.00 per share, paid quarterly, after adjusting for the 0.20 distribution ratio. The actual amount and timing of each dividend are subject to final determination by the boards of the two companies.

No action is required by Belo Corp. shareholders to receive their A. H. Belo common stock and Belo Corp. shareholders will not be required to surrender or exchange their shares.

Registered owners of Belo Corp. Series A common stock who are entitled to receive the distribution will receive a book entry statement from The Bank of New York Mellon reflecting their ownership of A. H. Belo Series A common stock. Holders of Belo Corp. Series A stock who hold their shares through a bank, broker or other entity will have their brokerage account credited with the A. H. Belo Series A common stock. Physical stock certificates for Series A common stock will not be issued unless a shareholder requests certificates from the transfer agent and provides the required information. Registered owners of Belo Corp. Series B common stock who are entitled to receive the distribution of A. H. Belo Series B common stock will receive physical stock certificates.

Completion of the distribution is subject to customary conditions set forth in a separation and distribution agreement to be filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as an exhibit to A. H. Belo's information statement on Form 10.

After the record date, Belo Corp. will mail an information statement to all holders of Belo Corp. common stock, which will include information regarding the procedures by which the distribution will be effected, the business and management of A. H. Belo following the distribution, and other information of interest to Belo Corp. and A. H. Belo shareholders. The information statement will also be available through the SEC's Web site at http://www.sec.gov and on the Belo Corp. and A. H. Belo Web sites at www.belo.com and www.ahbelo.com.

About Belo
Belo Corp. is one of the nation's largest media companies with a diversified group of market-leading television, newspaper, cable and interactive media assets. A Fortune 1000 company with 7,000 employees and approximately $1.6 billion in annual revenues, Belo operates in some of America's most dynamic markets in Texas, the Northwest, the Southwest, the Mid-Atlantic and Rhode Island. Belo owns 20 television stations, six of which are in the 15 largest U.S. broadcast markets. The Company also owns or operates six cable news stations and manages one television station through a local marketing agreement. Belo's daily newspapers are The Dallas Morning News, The Providence Journal, The Press-Enterprise (Riverside, CA) and the Denton Record-Chronicle (Denton, TX). The Company also publishes specialty publications targeting young adults, and the fast-growing Hispanic market, including Quick and Al Dia in Dallas/Fort Worth, and El D and La Prensa in Riverside. Belo operates more than 30 Web sites associated with its operating companies. Additional information is available at www.belo.com or by contacting Paul Fry, vice president/Investor Relations & Corporate Communications, at 214-977-6835.

Statements in this communication concerning Belo's business outlook or future economic performance, anticipated profitability, revenue, expenses, dividends, capital expenditures, investments, future financings, or other financial and non-financial items that are not historical facts, are "forward-looking statements" as the term is defined under applicable federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those statements.

Such risks, uncertainties and factors include, but are not limited to, uncertainties regarding the execution, timing, costs, consequences (including tax consequences), and other effects of the spin-off of the newspaper business of Belo; changes in capital market conditions and prospects, and other factors such as changes in advertising demand, interest rates and newsprint prices; newspaper circulation matters, including changes in readership patterns and demography, and audits and related actions by the Audit Bureau of Circulations; technological changes, including the transition to digital television and the development of new systems to distribute television and other audio-visual content; development of Internet commerce; industry cycles; changes in pricing or other actions by competitors and suppliers; Federal Communications Commission and other regulatory changes; adoption of new accounting standards or changes in existing accounting standards by the Financial Accounting Standards Board or other accounting standard-setting bodies or authorities; the effects of Company acquisitions and dispositions; general economic conditions; and significant armed conflict, as well as other risks detailed in Belo's other public disclosures, and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") including the Annual Report on Form 10-K.


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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. Here's Belo, Part Two
Following are some of our most significant milestones over the years:

1842 - The Daily News begins publishing in Galveston, Texas. Willard Richardson becomes editor a year later. Mr. Richardson makes The Daily News one of the nation's first papers to be distributed statewide by rail.

1857 - Mr. Richardson begins publishing the Texas Almanac and serves as its editor for 19 years. Early editions focused on Texas history and the workings of state government.

1865 - Alfred Horatio Belo joins The Daily News, now the most powerful newspaper in Texas. Belo succeeds Mr. Richardson and becomes majority owner of the Company.

1882 - The Company incorporates. Belo sends a young associate, George Bannerman Dealey, north to select a location for a sister newspaper. Three years later, The Dallas Morning News begins publishing under Mr. Dealey's direction.

1920 - Mr. Dealey becomes president of the Company. Six years later he renames it A.H. Belo Corporation in honor of his mentor.

1930s - WFAA-AM, one of the first radio stations in the U.S. and the first network affiliate in Texas after its launch by Belo in 1922, boosts its power to 50,000 watts, becoming the first "super-power" station in the Southwest.

1950 - Belo furthers its leadership in broadcasting by purchasing Dallas TV station KBTV and renamed it WFAA-TV. Today the ABC affiliate is the leading television station in Dallas/Fort Worth and the flagship of Belo's Television Group.

1981 - Belo's stock is publicly traded over the counter. Two years later it is listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

1984 - Belo buys KHOU-TV in Houston and WVEC-TV in Hampton/Norfolk.

1994 - Belo expands its Television Group by acquiring WWL-TV in New Orleans.

1997 - In the biggest transaction in its history, Belo acquires The Providence Journal Company. With it comes The Providence Journal; KING-TV and NorthWest Cable News (NWCN) in Seattle/Tacoma; KGW-TV in Portland; WCNC-TV in Charlotte; WHAS-TV in Louisville; KMSB-TV in Tucson; KREM-TV in Spokane; and KTVB-TV in Boise. In separate 1997 transactions, Belo acquires The Press-Enterprise, a daily newspaper serving Riverside County and the inland Southern California area; KMOV-TV in St. Louis; and KENS-TV in San Antonio .

1998 - WFAA becomes the first VHF station in the U.S. to transmit a digital signal (HDTV) on a permanent basis.

1999 - Belo acquires KTVK-TV, a highly rated independent station in Phoenix, and ABC affiliate KVUE-TV in Austin. Belo also launches Texas Cable News (TXCN), a 24-hour cable news channel. The Company's Internet subsidiary, Belo Interactive, is formed. In July, Belo acquires the Denton Publishing Company in Denton, Texas, which includes the Denton Record-Chronicle.

2000 - Belo acquires KONG-TV in Seattle/Tacoma and KASW-TV in Phoenix. Both were previously operated by Belo under local marketing agreements.

2001 - The Company's official name is changed from A.H. Belo Corporation to Belo Corp. Belo acquires KSKN-TV, a WB affiliate in Spokane that it previously operated under a local marketing agreement.

2002 - The Company acquires KTTU-TV, a UPN affiliate in Tucson that it previously operated under a local marketing agreement.

2004 - The Providence Journal celebrates its 175th anniversary on July 21. The Journal is the oldest continuously published daily newspaper in the U.S.
2007 - The Company acquires WUPL-TV in New Orleans, LA.
2008 - The Company's Board of Directors unanimously approved a plan to create separate television and newspaper businesses by spinning off the newspaper business into a publicly-traded company called A. H. Belo Corporation. Robert W. Decherd, past chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Belo Corp., became chairman, president and Chief Executive Officer of A. H. Belo, and non-executive chairman of Belo Corp. Dunia A. Shive, past president and Chief Operating Officer of Belo Corp., became president and Chief Executive Officer of Belo Corp.

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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. Here's Belo, Part Three


Belo Companies | By Region - Texas



WFAA-TV
Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas



KHOU-TV
Houston, Texas



KENS-TV
San Antonio, Texas

KCWX-TV*
San Antonio, Texas



KVUE-TV
Austin, Texas



Texas Cable News



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Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Feb-28-08 08:22 AM
Response to Reply #20
23. Thanks for the scoop, but I think the scoop we need is on Public Strategies
The ones doing the polling. I'll check later if someone else does not get around to it first.
mg
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