It's all about the storyline

[andym]

With the delegate race close, the outcome of the nomination race will be determined by the media, and the media care about only one thing.
This one thing is the storyline.

If Obama wins on both Ohio and Texas on Tuesday (even by narrow margins), the storyline will likely be that one candidate has insurmountable
"momentum."

If Clinton wins both Ohio and Texas (even by narrow margins), the storyline will be Obama's momentum is broken, and there is a new "comeback kid"

If they split Ohio and Texas, the storyline is muddied and there will be competition among the news outlets for which storyline will dominate.

Why? To the media, it's all about the horse race. In a horse race, there is always a winner, even if by a "nose." In fact, sometimes the loser can still win, if they significantly exceed expectations. The campaigns know this and they will try to set the expectations as low as possible, now.

The Clinton campaign initially set expectations pretty high, but now are setting expectations very low. That's why there are false rumors in the air about premature quitting (before the primaries, etc). It's to lower the expectations on Tuesday so a narrow victory can be considered a comeback.

The Obama campaign yesterday stated that they were still behind, which they would say regardless of where they thought they were. Again to lower expectations.

The reality of American politics in this and every election cycle, "it's the storyline, stupid."

[Egnever]

1. Story is cool and all

But the reality of the math is about to catch Hillary. She needs big wins in Texas and Ohio just to be able to pull even by convention time unless Obama totaly implodes. Its not looking like anything close to that will happen.

Even If Hillary wins Ohio and Texas she will be out of money again and obama can pick off the remaining states fairly easily.

Its a blowout or nothing for Clinton.

[andym]

2. It's not about the math-- though the math can't be avoided

It's not about the math, because the delegate count difference is less than 20%. That is not insurmountable, because this year the candidates will likely need the superdelegates to mathematically decide the race.

If no one can win it outright then the storyline takes on even greater significance, because the storyline will affect the national polls and the national (and critical state) polls will determine what the superdelegates do.

[insanity]

3. Meh.

If Hillary wins both OH and TX she will experience a huge surge in money.

BUT IT AIN'T GUNNA HAPPEN.

Obama won this thing with Wisconsin.

[cali]

4. nope, you're wrong on some of your storyline.

If Clinton loses either OH or TX, the storyline will be that she's done.

In case you hadn't noticed, that's already the dominant storyline. Short of a miracle, she's out.

[scheming daemons]

5. Not only that... the words of Bill Clinton will be played over and over again...

"If she doesn't win both Ohio and Texas, I don't think she can win the nomination."


If Hillary loses EITHER ONE.... the SDs will move to Obama in large numbers, and the calls from everyone - including lots of her supporters - for her to quit will be deafening.

[andym]

6. Bill clinton's quote may come back to haunt the campaign

You're right that Bill Clinton's quote may come back to haunt the Clinton campaign.

Because he created higher expectations that must now be lowered.