Florida GE POLL - McLame: 47, Obama: 37

[NJSecularist]

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/28/713124.aspx

McCain: 49
Hillary: 40

[scheming daemons]

1. This was 16 points last week.... cool...

..

[NJSecularist]

4. McLame is very strong in FL...

Hell, I think he could win Miami Dade. I think we'll lose FL by close to 10 points when we run against McLame. Probably his strongest swing state.

[avrdream]

32. I think he can also do well in California.

Spells trouble if true.

[book_worm]

35. Survey USA most recent CA poll last week had Obama beating McCain in by 30+ in state

and Hillary by better than 25 points.

[NJSecularist]

37. He'll get slaughtered in CA

Guarenteed.

Florida and California aren't even close to being similar.

[Leopolds Ghost]

42. Florida and Pennsylvania cease to be Blue States if McCain is the nominee. They play to his strength

Older, secular but socially conservative, fiscally moderate white voters, veterans, white ethnics,
Main Street country club Republicans who are pro-free trade, sportsmen. Obama shouldn't make the
mistake Kerry made -- like Kerry he can do well with these groups if he picks a pro-gun, veteran,
liberal anti-war populist scots-irish VP who wants to protect white working class jobs, like Webb
or Clark.

[Leopolds Ghost]

46. Conversely, Obama does better in Virginia than Kerry OR McCain

Because he wins over disaffected military types (who are pissed at McCain for supporting
Bush's position on the war) Southern blacks, urban college techie crowd in Northern Virginia.

He won't win Hampton Roads against naval hero McCain but he WILL win huge PARTS of Hampton Roads
(the shipbuilding communities are heavily African American). He could offset McCain's advantage with
Webb, Clark or Kaine (a moderate, "consistent ethic of life" Catholic who is opposed to abortion
and the death penalty but not opposed to Roe v. Wade -- Kaine is probably to the left of Reid,
for instance, and many people including former black governor Doug Wilder considered him too
liberal for Virginia before he got elected governor, mainly because he's anti-death penalty.)

Obama is already doing better in Virginia than McCain is in Pennsylvania! Virginia
with its huge naval population and working class whites would be McCain's home turf,
but the evangelicals in southern Virginia (Falwell types) hate McCain and will only
vote against Obama because they're racists. The Appalachian folks in Southwest Virginia
are like the ones in Pennsylvania, except unlike the mountain men to the north, they
are yellow dog democrats and unionists who are big for Warner who is on the ticket.
(West Virginia, East Kentucky and the Virginia panhandle are a lot more Democratic
and unionized than other parts of Appalachia, but they coexist with some pretty racist
Southern Baptist parts, such as the areas around Lynchburg and Bristol).

Mudcat Saunders will probably lead a unified GOTV campaign down there. And they aren't
quite as racist in coal country as they are in other parts of Appalachia, but they are
pretty xenophobic of foriegners so the whole Hussein Obama thing could be a concern in
the small "blue counties" of Appalachia.

and many of the navy brats in Hampton Roads who are expected to come home to McCain
like they did against Kerry are socially moderate, African American, and will vote for
whoever ends the war which is why Kerry did better than expected in Hampton Roads,
an area traditionally associated with Reagan and Pat Robertson (no one down there
listens to Pat Robertson anymore, and he naturally hates McCain anyway.) So McCain
will be forced to rely on the fact that he was a Naval war hero, which did not help Kerry.

[L0oniX]

47. Uhm ...Florida is not a blue state. It is the stupid state. FloriDAH

[kerry-is-my-prez]

51. There is no way that Clark would be on a ticket with Obama.

n/t

[Leopolds Ghost]

52. You probably said he wouldn't support Kerry either. Yet he did more work for Kerry than Edwards did.

Despite the fact that his patron / former boss, the Clintons, did nothing but
sit on the sidelines and try to sabotage Kerry's career to pave the way for 2008.\

Clark is an ambitious man and while he is loyal to the Clintons, he will wait
for them to make peace with Obama and "release" him to make urgent entreaties
for a high-level position in the Obama administration. The position he's best
suited for is VP -- he doesn't hold a key senate seat like Webb, and unlike
Webb he is more civil libertarian; both Webb and Clark are Scots Irish who
are anti-NAFTA and want to help the rural white working class; and both are
strong military men who opposed the Iraq war when it was unpopular to do so.

In fact, I am willing to bet he will argue that he is the only figure who can
bridge both camps and give the Clinton camp a voice in the next administration.

[bluestateguy]

2. Sounds like bull shit to me

There are what 7 million voters in Florida, and then they "poll" 600 people and jump to these conclusions?

[maseman]

19. Yes actually they do.

That is what polling does. If you look at the national presidential polls they are based off of usually 1,000 sample. And are amazingly close predictors of the outcome.

[Independent-Voter]

41. Stats 101 - Take the course. Love it. Pay attention to the sampling chapter.

[SoFlaJet]

3. wait until Obama

hits the state in the GE NJS and we'll really see his numbers skyrocket-I can't wait to see him live...another reason why the democratic party fucked us Floridians over-WE don't get to have any voice until November

[NJSecularist]

5. I was initially optimistic

But I think Florida is a state where McLame will take by 5+ points, regardless of whether Obama campaigns there.

[SoFlaJet]

10. the thing is we don't really know yet

no one has seen Obama no one has seen what kind of crowds or support he would garner now-I'm not giving up this state so fast

[rox63]

6. Just wait until Obama starts campaigning in FL

Every time he starts campaigning in a state, his poll numbers quickly rise.

[Cant trust em]

13. When he was way down last year before the campaign really started

I was saying that this would all change as soon as he gets out there. He is infectious (in a good way).

[bellasgrams]

24. Maybe not lots of adults live there

[RiverStone]

7. Well here is the good news!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Obama leading McCain combining all polls by about 4%.

[VolcanoJen]

8. These polls are just completely worthless.

The pollsters are likely using a 2004 turnout model, for one.

In Texas alone, over 512,000 Democrats have voted early in the upcoming Primary... only 173,000 Republicans have voted so far.

That is but one way to look at a presidential match-up nine months out, in an historic election year, with unprecedented enthusiasm and turnout on the Democratic side.

[maseman]

22. Actually they are not worthless

You don't predict the weather with a barometer but that doesn't mean it is worthless. It is used as a tool to see overall changes in the environment...low front, high front, etc.

Same with polls. They are testing the waters to get a read on what is going on. You cannot make assumptions off of one poll. The website the above poster sourced www.realclearpolitics.com is great because it aggregates polls together which in turn is a very reliable source.

[IronLionZion]

9. no dems have campaigned in Florida yet

I'm feeling good about Ohio, NM, Colorado, Virginia, and many other states with changing demographics and political climates.

[bellasgrams]

25. No candidates were supposed to advertise in FL but there

were ads for BO.

[Cant trust em]

11. We shouldn't worry too much about individual states

If the overall trend is positive then I'm not going to get into a tizzy about one state. All we need is to change a few states from red to blue. It's not going to happen all in one blow.

[TwilightGardener]

12. Lots of military, and retired military, and elderly, in FL--

it's friendly territory for an aging warhawk. FL will be tough for us, no doubt.

[ctaylors6]

17. and Lieberman will probably campaign for his BFF mccain in FL & he's popular in FL

[dbonds]

14. Obama hasn't campaigned at all in FL yet.

The numbers will change.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

20. ***Ding***

That is assured.

[bellasgrams]

27. TV ads for BO did appear in parts of FL

[Captain Hilts]

39. During the primary they sure did. nt

[ElsewheresDaughter]

15. hahaha you tool......so Hillary does a better job

[NJSecularist]

21. Huh? What are you talking about?

Are you drunk?

[Arugula Latte]

45. Did you see that Hillary is down 9 and Obama is down 10 against McCain?

And THAT'S what you're crowing about?

[liberal N proud]

16. Do we really believe this shit?

A man whose campaign was virtually dead, out of cash 3 month ago suddenly has the GOP nomination and is leading in polls against Democrats who where very strong through out the campaign season?

:wtf:

[NoodleyAppendage]

18. Geriatrics voting for the Geriatric. No big surprise here.

Florida is hopeless for ANY Dem.

j

[maseman]

23. They like McCain's hair

because it looks like almost everyones in South Florida.

[L0oniX]

49. Nasal hair. n/t

[CyberPieHole]

26. Just watch Obama's numbers once the RW machinery start working on him...

For me, it'll be time to sit back and watch the show. (Without a horse in the race the race is fun to watch).

[HCE SuiGeneris]

31. No horse in the race?

Supreme Court count at all?

[Captain Hilts]

28. The DNC is about to say "fuck off" to nearly two million FL primary voters. nt

[formernaderite]

29. the unseated delegates may actually hurt him there

in the GE. I could see his camp after winning the rest of the primaries, agreeing to seat Mich and Florida just to tame some of the bitterness.

[Alhena]

30. Nice going, Florida Democratic Party

[Vinca]

33. Unlikely we'd win Florida under the best of circumstances and

chances are McCain will choose the popular governor as a running mate.

[Captain Hilts]

40. Older women - who vastly outnumber the men - vote Democratic. nt

[Thrill]

34. Florida is a lost cause. I've said this for a while

Several Repuke Governors, Repukes run their state legislator, and they elected a wacko Repuke US Senator. And went crazy over Bush in 04. They are a lost cause. They are completely nuts like the rest of the south now. We're going to win this in the West and the Mid West.

[bunnies]

36. ummm. Its FEBRUARY.

geebus.

[fujiyama]

38. Florida won't be easy

and while I don't want to write it off completely, McCain will be especially difficult to beat there.

[DemGa]

43. Well there's always Alabama!......nt

[grantcart]

44. this is great the further ahead he is the more scruitiny he will get

if they see that he is a lost cause they will go light on him

[Maribelle]

48. Florida was the democrats to lose.

And the DNC might have just done that.

The Democrats were making great gains all over the state. I do believe had the DNC done at least what the RNC had done, both Hillary and Obama would today be polling far ahead of McCain.

[Occam Bandage]

50. Obama hasn't campaigned in Florida yet. That'll change. We eat 20-point leads for breakfast.