IA Poll: C:47 O 43 U:10 Clinton regains TX Momentum

[kennetha]

Looks like the race is tending back Clinton's way in Texas. Go Hillary! If we take Ohio and Texas on Tuesday, then it's game on!

http://southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_228_247.aspx

[JackORoses]

1. Obama says, "I pity the fool who messes with Texas!"

[MadBadger]

2. Well Every other poll disagrees with Insider Advantage.

[kennetha]

4. This is the most recent poll, isn't it?

[MadBadger]

11. According to RCP, Rasmussen is the most recent poll, which shows it trending towards Obama

48-44

[WolverineDG]

30. Yes but that 10% undecided is the monkey wrench

plus the MOE = dead heat.

dg

[NJSecularist]

3. Insider Advantage has been terrible

I'll trust Survey USA, which has been right all along. Along with every other poll which tells us Obama is leading.

[BuyingThyme]

5. Racism card kicking in.

Hopefully it will be short-lived.

[tandem5]

12. fours of uhhhh diamonds, king of spades, farmer gone a fishin'.... nope no racism card -

go fish!

[BuyingThyme]

14. Are you denouncing or rejecting my post?

[tandem5]

23. I renounce any claim to decouncing or rejecting - I was lightly mocking...

or was I teasing???

[nonconformist]

27. Right, because someone can't possibly chose Hillary over Obama unless they're RACIST

:eyes:

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[BuyingThyme]

40. I don't know what happened to my response, but here it is again:

You see, this is not about Hillary pandering to all people; it's about her pandering to racist people.

That does not mean that everybody who supports Hillary is a racist.

Is this too complicated for you?

[nonconformist]

44. I would imagine it got deleted, because it's offensive, unsubstantiated bullshit. nt

[BuyingThyme]

46. So you really believe all Hillary supporters are racists?

Wow. You're not very smart.

[nonconformist]

49. Yeah, I'm done with you. nt

[TwilightGardener]

That ain't what Rasmussen sez.

[tandem5]

6. I'm a clinton supporter... but every polling company has their own likely voter model -

its just a mess when things are close to figure out which way things are going.

[workinclasszero]

7. Please

Hillary would have to win BIG in Texas and Ohio to gain anything.

If she wins Texas by, say 52% she wins the battle and loses the war.

Same in Ohio. Hillary is done.

[Skip Intro]

10. They are both 600+ delegates from winning the nom, little early to call it, eh?

[JackORoses]

16. no, Obama's lead is insurmountable

He leads by over 150 pledged delegates.

If you include Superdelegates, he still leads by 100.

Hillary cannot make up this ground. It is over.

[book_worm]

8. I'm an Obama supporter and I'm nervous about both Ohio and Texas

not that if she wins it will propell her ahead, she would need to win by a landslide to do that, but the story would be she's coming back and the race would continue to go on. I hope Obama takes one of those states.

[cali]

9. sorry, it's tied. Do you understand what the MOE is?

from the article: "...indicates that Sen. Hillary Clinton has regained the lead in a race that remains within the survey’s margin of error."

[MagsDem]

25. LOL -- but the internal polls ALSO show him losing, remember?

[cali]

31. LOL!!

He's up 4 pts in today's Rasmussen. Even the dimmest person should grasp that the race in TX is tied. And you have no idea what his internals show. As I explained in very simple language, campaigns always play down their chances in tight races. Too bad you have such a difficult time understanding these simple points.

[khaos]

26. moe

[MadBadger]

13. Insider Advantage is rated worse than ARG....nuff said

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/page/3/

[texas_indy]

15. Hum, lets look at the only info they give on this

"But a survey of 591 registered voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary in Texas conducted last night (February 27) indicates that Sen. Hillary Clinton has regained the lead in a race that remains within the survey’s margin of error. The results were:

Clinton: 47%
Obama: 43%
Undecided: 10%

The survey has been weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation. Margin of error +/- 4%"

1. 591 were polled?? Texas is kind of big for 591.
1. Which section did they poll? E Texas, N Texas, West Texas, South Texas, Central Texas? What they do, poll only 110 people in each part?
3. And, how did they determine "who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary"?


Pretty flimsy stuff to use, IMO. Whatever floats your boat though.


Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[MadBadger]

17. Hey, this People Calling people poll says Obama has a 7 point lead

http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2008/02/25/daily29.html

[Blue_Roses]

18. well I just left from voting

for Obama and my precinct says that voting is unbelievable. She said that usually they are doing good if they average 15 a day during primary season and they are having over 200 a day.:wow:

Mostly Democratic candidates.

[ORDem]

22. Really a once in a generation primary for TX I gather. n/t

[DemGa]

19. Beautiful; Go Texas!......nt

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

20. Good luck.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

21. or it could be 43-47 the other way within the MOE.

[jefferson_dem]

24. Joke of a polling firm.

Here's what they predicted for Iowa --

Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

and SC --

Barack Obama: 41%
Hillary Clinton: 31%
John Edwards: 13%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 14%

[NJSecularist]

36. Ouch

And this is the poll the Clintonites are using as the be-all-end-all? :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Alhena]

28. That would be ok- probably a tie in delegates in that scenario

[Hoof Hearted]

29. Go Hillary!

:)

[totodeinhere]

33. I am sick of people only posting the polls that put their candidate in the best light.

Then they ignore any poll that shows the opposite. We have learned after new Hampshire that you can't trust the polls anyway, so instead of dwelling on the polls why don't we just wait a few days until they hold the only poll that matters.

[KLee]

37. RIGHT ON!

These polls don't reflect the actual vote totals....especially when they only ask 590 something people....not accurate.

[Bullet1987]

34. 10% Undecided is a lot...

and early voting heavily favors Obama.

[NMMatt]

35. This thread is very reminiscent of the pre-Wisconsin threads -nt

[Mass]

38. Or simply something to do with the margin of error?

I would say that the race is tied in Texas. That is what about poll says, including this one.

[Thepricebreaker]

39. She would have to win OH and TX by OVER 60% to even catch him. NOT going to happen! n/t

[LisaL]

45. She doesn't have to catch him.

Neither will get enough for the nomination, and it goes to the convention.

[workinclasszero]

50. Facts don't work with Hillbots

Its the cult thing, ya know?:eyes:

[ElsewheresDaughter]

41. sweet biscuits!

[Johnny__Motown]

42. cherry picking, majority of polls have Obama ahead and margin in your example is 4

[anonymous171]

43. U:10

There's where Obama will win.

[jlpohio69]

47. Rasmussen Polls

Funny, when Rasmussen polls show Hillary in the lead, the Obama supporters on DU say how flawed those polls are, but yet they turn around and use them as support when they show Obama in the lead. You can't have it both ways....sorry!

[Alhena]

48. Someone posted this poll oversampled hispanics - 38% I think

[zach]

51. Very strange internals on this poll...

I don't really see any possible way of explaining the internals of this poll, it truly doesn't make sense.

The first glaring issue with this poll, is that the sampling for the different minority breakdowns is no where near consistent with every other poll coming out of Texas.

Secondly, take a look at the differences between their polling from two days ago and this poll they released today.

Insider Advantage Texas 2-26-2008
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/InsiderAdvantage_MajorityOpinionTXDemPrimaryPoll-2-26-2008.html

Insider Advantage Texas 2-28-2008
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/InsiderAdvantage_MajorityOpinionTXDemPrimaryPoll-2-28-2008.html

Clearly the sample sizes are small so you're going to see fluctuation; but they're now saying Hillary is winning republican crossover votes in this newest poll, as well as seeing independents going from 5% undecided 2 days ago, to 20% today, amongst other irregularities... Something seems odd to me.

Anyways, I didn't see the internals posted yet, so I figured I'd drop them in here for those interested.

Enjoy.

[usregimechange]

52. One poll is not a trend