New Poll Shows Clinton's Rhode Island Lead Is Widening

[bigtree]

Feb 28, 2008

A new poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., leading Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., by 15 points in Rhode Island, meaning her lead has widened in what has become an important primary for the former first lady. Conducted on Feb. 23, the telephone survey reached 1,035 Rhode Islanders, according to Rasmussen Reports, the private public opinion company that did the poll.

The Rasmussen poll found 53 percent of those surveyed would vote for Clinton versus 38 percent who would vote for Obama. Though closing the gap separating him and Clinton in other states, in Rhode Island Obama is facing a state that "has historically always wanted to go against the tide -- for instance, Rhode Island was the last of the original 13 states to ratify the constitution," Associate Professor of Political Science Wendy Schiller said.

These results differ from those released by the Taubman Center for Public Policy on Feb. 11. That survey, which found Clinton leading by eight points, reached 739 individuals. "We use human interviews, as do most national interest groups," said Darrell West, a professor of political science and director of the Taubman Center. Rasmussen uses "an automated phone call, and you would choose either Obama or Clinton, and as a result, it does not include the uncommitted choice that would be found on ballots during the actual primary," West said.

Demographically, the state suits a Clinton victory, Schiller said. "We have a large number of older voters, and a fairly large Hispanic population, as well as registered Rhode Island Democrats who will vote for a Clinton win," Schiller said.

"Both are doing a good job here; her core consists of long-standing organizational strength, while he seems to have a lot of enthusiasm surrounding his campaign," Schiller said.In terms of spending in Rhode Island, Obama has been investing more in television advertisements. According to a Feb. 23 Providence Journal article, Obama has been spending three times as much as Clinton on TV spots. He has booked more than 640 commercial slots at a total cost of $156,000, compared to Clinton's 160 TV spots at a cost of $43,000, the article reported.

The amount of spending on TV advertisements in Rhode Island shows that Obama is trying to target Clinton's areas of strength in the state, Schiller said.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/02/28/politics/uwire/main3889995.shtml

[thepurpose]

1. Rhode Island is an important primary? Really? Okay.

[adoraz]

4. and considering Obama has a bigger lead in Vermont

they will cancel each other out I bet

[CalGator]

9. RI is too small

RI doesn't count ;)

[bigtree]

6. don't be a shit.

[maseman]

22. If Hill gets beaten in Texas and Ohio

winning Road Island would be like getting excited for hitting a single in a baseball game when your down by 16 runs.

[MadBadger]

2. She'll win RI, but Obama will show up on RI, and I think the lead will close slightly

However, RI will be more than cancelled out by VT.

[Occam Bandage]

3. I thought only the big states counted.

[thepurpose]

5. I was under that impression too. Guess I am out of the loop here.

[bigtree]

13. all state and all Democratic votes 'count'

[bigtree]

8. in what, your rhetorical power play?

This just a post about Rhode Island poll.

[Occam Bandage]

10. Not mine.

[bigtree]

12. not mine either. Sounds like you're talking to someone else.

[Occam Bandage]

15. Just referencing the post-Super Tuesday

"Only the big blue states count" Penn and Wolfson spin.

[bigtree]

26. I didn't listen to any of that. silly politics.

[Johnny__Motown]

7. how many delegate? 8 I think? so a 5-3 split if she landslides, Oh No

[bigtree]

11. so what? I've heard the Obama campaign herald votes in small states

They herald the demographics and insist they represent trends in other states.

This is just a poll about Rhode Island. Take it for whatever it's worth TO YOU. I'll just take it.

[MadBadger]

16. Watch the margin of victory. She's going to get blown out in VT most likely

So her win in RI will be a win on paper, bu she wont get all tha that many delegates out of it. When Obama wins these smaller states, he blows her out. That's why they are so important.

[CalGator]

19. I'm sure she'll win RI

It just don't do much to her delegate count.

She definitely has the party big wigs backing her in that state.

[Johnny__Motown]

25. True, but she needs delegates.

[cali]

17. 33 I believe

and every delegate counts at this point. However, it's unlikely she'll win by 20 pts, whereas in VT, Obama will likely win by 30, and VT has a strange delegate allocation system, which means that Obama will get almost all of the delegates here if he wins by that margin.

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

37. 21 pledged delegates n/t

[NeedleCast]

14. Rhode Island, the new firewall?

[Recursion]

18. Ironically, Rhode Island's motto is...

...anyone...?

[CalGator]

23. the H word

[Benhurst]

49. "Hope"

:rofl:

[muntrv]

20. So now Rhode Island is Hillary's firewall?

[Alhena]

21. RI and Vermont will cancel each other out

[FrenchieCat]

24. The last of the 13 colonies to ratify the constitution.......

so yeah, sounds right. Rhode Island will resist change and stay the fucking same, siding with maintaining dynasties (see Castro/Castro & Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton).
I'm so impressed. :sarcasm:

[bigtree]

27. Obama campaign says RI full of communist sympathizers, mired in the 1770's

:eyes:

[RBInMaine]

28. Alright, let's not crap on Rhode Island.

The Demographics and voting trends in this state, as we have seen in so others, go toward establishement candidate Hillary. Let's not crap on the good folks from Rhode Island or ANY small state. As Obama has shown, ALL states are important. From what I know the Obama camp is working the ground and phones there pretty hard, Patrick Kennedy is out there working as well as other surrogates, and Obama will be there himself this weekend. As shown, there are other polls showing it tightenting much as we have seen in TX and OHIO, though not as much yet.
Obama is WAY out in front in Vermont, slightly ahead in TX, and moving closer to evening things up in Ohio. Just look at these trends. There Hillary was 15 to 20 points ahead in OH and TX just two weeks ago, and look at it today. The more Obama becomes known to the voters, the more he gains.
If he'd had another week before Super Tuesday, my money says he would have taken California and probably other relatively close states as well. Don't worry. He may not quite win RI, but it'll be considerably closer than a 15 point spread.

[BeatleBoot]

29. No. Please.

Shit at will.

See who stays home in November.

[rox63]

30. RI voters are a lot like MA voters

So I'm not suprised that she's ahead there. But it won't make that much of a difference as far as delegates go, especially if she loses either (or both) TX or OH.

[Lena inRI]

31. Well, I'm one of those older RI Democrats AND. . .

. . .I'm proudly voting and supporting Senator Obama!

Ya know, this guy Darrell West is always being asked to predict local election results. . .what a racket. . .just like meteorologists. . .getting paid even when their forecast turns out wrong. . .how easy is that.

So I turn a deaf ear to these predictors, especially when I see and hear more about Obama in my daily routine than those poll numbers would suggest.

Just yesterday I was waiting in the RI Tax Division office along with other taxpayers and the talk was spontaneously pro-Obama. . .and I bet the ground-up Obama campaign will be sure to get these people to the polls.

Then, I checked out the RI Obama website and I reaffirmed my impression of a ground swell grassroots campaign.

Soooo, in our small-microcosmic-way,

RI gets it and Obama will do very well here in spite of the prognosticators.

:toast: :toast: :toast: :toast: :toast:

[MadBadger]

32. Obama is coming to Providence on Saturday...that should help his poll numbers.

[Lena inRI]

34. Yep, noon at RI College rec center. . .

. . .600 Mount Pleasant Avenue, Providence.

I'll be there with my daughter coming from MA and we're hoping to get Obama yard signs and stickers that day since our online orders are backordered. . .we just might have to make homemade signs. . now that's REAL GRASSROOTS. . .bwhaaahaaa!

:grouphug: :grouphug: :grouphug: :grouphug: :grouphug:

[MadBadger]

35. How big is the rec center?

[Lena inRI]

48. Well, the Field House has. . .

. . .35,000 square feet and a 100-vehicle parking lot.

The online RIC newspaper(the Anchor)said HRC's infamous rally (when HRC sarcastically spoke of opening skies etc.)was here last Sunday with over 5,000 people. . .read the whole article here:

http://www.anchorweb.org/

I'm certain Obama will fill this place to the rafters! I'll have to get there early!!

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[Political Heretic]

33. I thought these lesser states didn't matter to the Clinton campaign?

Or... is that just when they lose them ten times in a row?

[bigtree]

38. I'm not 'the Clinton campaign'

. . . luckily, YOU aren't the Obama campaign

[Political Heretic]

41. I am, actually.

:hi:

And we are doing just fine. :)

So, I take you disagree with the Clinton campaigns assertion then that lesser states such as RI don't matter? That's good to know. I appreciate your independent thinking on the matter.

[bigtree]

42. umm,

okay :eyes:

[Political Heretic]

46. Well said, sir. I agree that it is, indeed, okay.

:D

[Skip Intro]

36. wonder if that's happening in the other states to vote on Tuesday...

there was a thread that pointed to a poll that said she had regained the lead in TX.

I am cautiously optimistic about what we may see Tuesday.

[bigtree]

39. I do remember a thing called 'buyers remorse'

. . . seems a bit of that might be in order.

[susankh4]

45. I would expect her lead to widen in OH as well...

we also have a history of backlashing frontrunners.

And... the word in this area is all get out and vote for Hill. I think it's partly "buyers remorse" and partly.... the revving up of the MSM and GOP against Obama.

[Sensitivity]

40. Rhode Island is definitely one of those states that "count"

[AtomicKitten]

44. It only counts when she wins, silly.

[stop the bleeding]

43. whoopee nt

[mrreowwr_kittty]

47. RI must be the new firewall. nt