Heard something amazing on my commute this evening...Clinton gets more core Democratic support.

[Maddy McCall]

A Pew research representative was being interviewed on NPR. He said that Hillary Clinton polls better than Barack Obama among Democrats against McCain. Clinton pulls in 89% of Democrats. Barack only 81%.

Barack does a little better than Hillary among Independents, though. Barack pulls 49%, where Clinton pulls 45%.

Still, that's a 4% net advantage for Clinton among Democrats and Independents. 4% can make a world of difference in national elections for sure.

I was happy to hear this! I felt like this would be true before I heard the data today. Now I know it!

Edit: Please take three minutes to listen to the interview.
Let's see if I can post the link to the interview here:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87775243

[democrattotheend]

1. Any idea which poll was being cited?

Just curious.

[Maddy McCall]

3. Evidently, Pew did the polling.

I could be wrong. I just know that it was a Pew representative that was being interviewed.

[mcctatas]

2. and yet she's losing...

quick, ask for a do-over...:eyes:

[Maddy McCall]

6. Would you prefer me to be nice or a smartass?

You seem to have the smartass thing down. Sorry that you don't like the message.

[mcctatas]

13. GDP brings out the worst in me...

I am normally a very nice person, and will try to keep the sarcasm at a minimum. I respectfully wonder if all of that is true, how is she still losing?

[Maddy McCall]

17. This new Pew poll considers a national match-up against McCain.

Clinton against McCain, vs. Obama against McCain.

Clinton retains more democratic voters against McCain than Obama does. White, older Democrats defect to McCain when it's Obama vs. McCain.

[mcctatas]

21. this poll?

The all voters and indpendant #'s seem the most relevant to me
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=1254

[Maddy McCall]

24. Listen to the interview if you want to know what I'm talking about.

The link is in the OP.

[mcctatas]

34. I listened...

heard that clinton has more loyalty from dems, but less likely to attract independants, that they both beat McCain, and I still don't see what was amazing, not being a smart ass, just don't see it...

[Maddy McCall]

36. That Hillary's net advantage, considering independents and dems, is 4% over Obama.

We've been hearing the old fallback line at DU for months. "Hillary is soooo devisive." Pew's saying it's not so.

[mcctatas]

37. you can't extrapolate a net advantage based on percentages

of different sized samples which is why I said that the actual #'s that are important are the all voters (#1 importance) and independants, the differences in the democratic voters are so small as to be almost statistically insignificant in the final tally...

on edit...the poll I posted is the one they were discussing on NPR from the Pew Research Center

[THUNDER HANDS]

4. funny, because I heard on the news today

that obama has won 11 contests in a row, and never lost a delegate contest to Clinton on any single day they've held a primary or caucus.

I presume those would include states with democrats and independents, but what do I know. I'm not from Pew.

[rug]

7. I heard he never spilled soup on his shirt.

[Maddy McCall]

9. Just reporting what I heard on NPR tonight.

Sorry that it bothers you.

[Olney Blue]

5. Interesting. They are both fairly high, reflecting how excellent they both are.

[Major Hogwash]

8. Hahahahaha.

I was listening to the radio all day long and I didn't hear anything like that!

[Maddy McCall]

10. I was listening between 6:30 and 7:00 tonight. Perhaps you missed it.

It certainly was on NPR, All Things Considered tonight.

I added the link, by the way. So your attempt to call me a liar is proved bogus.

[Major Hogwash]

26. Hahaha! It was the use of the word "amazing" that's so funny.

Proving you to be a liar isn't necessary.

[Asia Expat]

28. Maybe this will help

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=398

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

11. And your point is . . . ?

[Levgreee]

12. Sorry to hear that perhaps 8% of Democrats who vote for Hillary won't vote for Obama

Hopefully they'll come around by the time we have to beat McCain.

[Faygo Kid]

14. Then how come Obama has won 11 straight, closest by 17 points?

It must be the effectiveness of our cult leadership.

Klaatu Barada Nikto ("Yes We Can")

[gerrilea]

15. BEcause those % numbers are deceptive

not all the people voted...only 40% maybe vote in primaries of the total registered voters that do vote in the GE

[Faygo Kid]

25. They seem pretty clear cut to me. Seems to me you better beat him, then.

Simple solution: Win everything here on out by about 65 percent. All these claims don't change the results to date. You can spin the numbers every way you want to, but this is likely over March 5, and another candidate than Hillary Clinton will be the nominee.

Guess you better start winning, right?

[DemGa]

16. How is Barack Obama's "Hillary is divisive" argument holding up?

Doesn't comport with the truth does it??

I told you Obama was a deceiver.

[Maddy McCall]

18. Not too well, according to the Pew Poll.

:)

[anonymous171]

19. OMG 8%!?@?!@

[Maddy McCall]

22. Your point?

Obviously you're too young or ill-informed to realize what 8% would have meant in both 2000 AND 2004.

[anonymous171]

27. Again

What kind of democrats don't vote for other dems in the GE?

[MoonRiver]

20. Thanks Maddy!

Many progressives I know are for Hillary. What you posted just confirms my personal impression.

Also, there are a lot of Rethugs crossing over to make sure BO is the Dem candidate.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

23. thanks for the info

[Franks Wild Years]

29. So essentially, racist, war-mongering...

..."Democrats" hopelessly out of touch with society and what's good for the planet defect to the racially inflammatory proponent of endless war, John McCain. Quelle surprise!

[Maddy McCall]

31. Attack the voter. Good strategy.

[Franks Wild Years]

32. Truth, not attack.

The sort of people who defect to the racially provocative, war mongering McCain will be those sort of 'Democrats'. That is obvious.

[Maddy McCall]

30. You're welcome!

It's good news, huh?

If she doesn't win this nomination, I'll always regret how this went. :(

[kid a]

33. Probably not a logical step to use poll numbers from a primary race and calculate any net numbers

for the general.

Thats just too speculative and messy.

I'll go look at the poll, but I'm still quite confident in Obama's chances in Nov.

[Maddy McCall]

35. They considered both Democrats against McCain. Hillary polls better...

I know some people don't like this, because it kills that old "Hillary is soooo devisive" line.

[McHatin]

39. Obama actually polls better

He wins against McCain 50% to 43%, where Hillary wins 50% to 45%. If Hillary does have a "net gain" of 4%, it must be irrelevant, because somehow Obama comes out better. This can only mean that there are a lot more independents than Democrats, so that Obama leading among them must more than make up for the fact that Hillary leads 8% among democrats.

Either way, I've seen a lot of polls that say Obama does much better than Hillary against McCain, this is only one poll, and should be taken as such.

[woolldog]

45. Exactly

And in swing states the Independent vote is king. That's why swing states are swing states: because they have a lot of independent voters.

The numbers suggest that in certain strongly democratic states, the race may be closer. But since the GE is winnner take all, I don't think it matters as much.

[kid a]

40. yea, i don't buy the divisive argument.

The dynamics for a November win are starkly different depending on the nominee.

Hillary Will need EVERY LAST hard core, mainstream Democrat and some of the independents to win.

Obama will likely loose some older, centrist/zellmiller dems, but likely motivate millions of young first time voters, as well as get more of the independent vote.

I just don't see Hillary energizing the anything more than her base.

I'd like to see a poll comparing which dem candidate is generating the most first time voters.

[Lucinda]

38. Thanks for posting the info!

Good news is much appreciated. :hi:

[sampsonblk]

41. A link to the actual numbers. Very interesting

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=398

[Sadie5]

43. The crossovers

are the ones who have propelled Obama's count. Take away the Indys who voted for him and will vote for McCain in November and Obama is history.too bad his campaign can't see this.Thanks Maddy for the posts and the research.

[TheDoorbellRang]

54. You don't have to worry about Indys doing that. Really

There have probably been some from the Republican party that play those types of games, but why would any Independents? They are, by definition, independent of any party affiliation. They vote for who they consider to be the best candidate, not what party they belong to. This election cycle, a majority of them are voting for Obama. That's a GOOD thing.

[dansolo]

42. Take a little closer look at the numbers

You should follow the links and look at the numbers a little closer. If you want to extrapolate them to the general election, then it actually corresponds to about a 0.5% net advantage for Obama.

There are a number of flaws in you reasoning:

1. These were not head-to-head, but each one was against McCain. So, you need to compare the net differences between what each candidate gets versus what McCain would get:

Republicans: Obama -79% Clinton -86% (Obama +7%)
Democrats: Obama +67% Clinton +81% (Clinton +14%)
Independents: Obama +6% Clinton -6 (Obama +12%)

2. The numbers should be normalized against the percentage of each group of registered voters

Republicans: 339 out of 1280 (0.273)
Democrats: 456 out of 1280 (0.367)
Independents: 388 out of 1280 (0.313)

Now lets total that all together: (0.273 * 7%) - (0.367 * 14%) + (0.313 * 12) = 0.529%

3. Don't discount the Republicans

If you just include Democrats and Independents, Clinton does have a slight advantage of about 1.4%, but you can't ignore the fact that Obama would get more Republican crossover votes.

[woolldog]

47. well done.

:applause:

[Oleladylib]

44. I think we will be seeing/hearing alot of this from here on into the convention.

[LostinVA]

46. What snotty, childish, unnecessary nasty appear on this thread

WHY the hell do you feel the need to just attackattackattack for no good reason? The OP is factual and non-flamey and provides a link. It was presented as something intertesting and non-divisive. What a perfect opportunity to be adults and discuss things. But no: some of you -- many of you, actually, chose to be jerks about it just to prove you can. How you have helped ruin a great site.

What immature spirits you have.

[Catherine Vincent]

48. Word!

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

49. It's. All. They. Know.

[grantcart]

50. who were you replying to?

[dansolo]

52. My response was not snotty or childish

I went to the link and actually looked at the numbers a little closer. I pointed out that the conclusions made by the OP were not entirely accurate, and I showed the numbers to back up what I was saying.

[elixir]

51. Congratulations Maddy McCall on two great posts.

[mcctatas]

53. If by great you mean not backed up by the numbers in the actual

poll then...
:applause: