Hillary's best-case scenario.

[milkyway]

Hillary is behind by about 157 pledged delegates right now.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22419475

Assuming a best-case scenario for Hillary where everything breaks right for her, here's what could happen (courtesy of Chris Bowers at Openleft.com):

March 4
Ohio: Clinton wins by 7%, nets about 11 delegates
Texas: Tie popular vote, Obama nets about 9
Rhode Island: Clinton wins by 13%, nets 5
Vermont: Obama wins by 20%, nets 3

March 8
Wyoming: 12 delegates, Obama should net at least 2

March 11
Mississippi: 33 delegates, Bowers has Obama net 3, but I can't imagine it not being higher.


So on March 4 she would gain 4 delegates. But those would be wiped out in the next seven days, with only two large states left to vote: Pennsylvania and North Carolina.


April 22
Pennsylvania: 158 delegates, Bowers shows that if Clinton wins by 5%, she nets 8 delegates

May 3
Guam: 4 delegates

May 6
North Carolina: 115
Indiana: 72

May 13
West Virginia: 28

May 20
Oregon: 52
Kentucky: 51

June 3
Montana: 16
South Dakota: 15

June 7
Puerto Rico: 55

This is, of course, just about the best case for Hillary in every state. From March 4 thru April 22, Hillary will have gained 7 delegates, cutting Obama's lead to 150.

The calendar after Pennsylvania is not favorable to her; only West Virginia and Kentucky seem good.

A big problem for Hillary is that there is seven weeks between March 4 and Pennsylvania. I can't imagine the Gore/Pelosi group and other superdelegates allowing Hillary to continue attacking Obama for seven weeks unless she has a very strong showing on March 4. They will let her know that they don't want Obama to have to spend almost two months turning Pennsylvania into a large-scale Iowa instead of getting ready for the general. If Pennsylvania was only a couple of weeks after March 4 the supers might not mind the campaign continuing, but seven weeks is just too long a time period when it appears Obama's lead is insurmountable (barring, of course, any major scandal, and I don't mean "plagiarizing" or not holding any subcommittee meetings).

Hillary's campaign gave Obama too many states without even putting up a fight, giving him a large percentage of the delegates. Obama contests every state, not allowing Hillary to run up big margins in net delegates. Even a great showing in California only netted her about 44 delegates, and Cali has almost as many delegates as Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania combined.

Hillary's fifteen-state strategy simply got overwhelmed by Barack's fifty-state strategy. I'm staying with my prediction that, under pressure from the supers ready to move to Obama in large numbers, she will drop out of the race on March 6.

[AtomicKitten]

1. Her BEST case scenario would be if Barack was caught in bed with a dead farm animal. (nt)

[Johnny__Motown]

3. Then he would only win by 120 pleged delegates?

[AtomicKitten]

4. I heard the DFA otherwise known as NAMBLA was stripped of its delegates for having an early primary.

* DFA (Dead Farm Animals)

[Unsane]

2. Amazing post! HillShills need to read this. k&r

[earthlover]

6. Facts are sexist mysogynists, though....they won't read it sarc

Really, the hillary herd will not face the truth. I think Hillary may get more delegates than this scenario, but it is unlikely to be as much as she needs.

Unfortunately, I don't see hillary backing down. After a month or so, obama wins with damage to the campaign against McCain.

Hillary won't mind. She would hope obama loses in 08 so she can run in 12 instead of having to wait until 16. She is, after all, 60.

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. Was "HillShills" necessary?

What will you do after your week of glorious gloating, I wonder?

[ORDem]

10. Won't matter if they do. They will not quit until HRC quits, no matter

how misguided and damaging that may be. We'll just have to live with it and at least admire them for their persistence.

:dem:

[Yael]

5. Here in PA, we are gamed up and ready

but 6 weeks of scorched earth are not our idea of the "Iowa treatment".

Lets focus on a presumptive nominee and work on GOTV (March 24 is the deadline) rather than inter-party warfare.

[bvar22]

7. Best case scenario for Hillary:

She bows out with grace & dignity after the 4th.

She immediately calls a press conference and endorses Obama with all her heart.

She FIRES all of her top Campaign Consultants, and offers her campaign infrastructure to aid the Obama campaign wherever and however possible.

She continues to campaign and fundraise tirelessly to unify the Democratic Party and defeat Republicans in the GE.

[FlyingSquirrel]

9. If she does all that...

Would you support her for VP? Assuming she would accept the position?

[ORDem]

12. Her talents would be totally wasted as V.P. Better she stays in the Senate or

gets a high-profile cabinet position. I'd rather have her as Sen. Majority leader. She might show a little more backbone than the current occupant of that position.

:dem:

[FlyingSquirrel]

13. In that case, why should she campaign / fundraise for him when she is needed

back in the Senate? Just wonderin'. Offering campaign infrastructure, sure. No problem with that. Would Barack be expected to be campaigning and fundraising for her if she won as opposed to returning to his job?

[ORDem]

11. Miracles do happen I guess n/t

[milkyway]

14. morning kick.