my amateur prediction on Texas and Ohio

[Lerkfish]

this is my prediction, and yes, of course, its my opinion. you're free to post yours if you differ.

Judging from the ground game information, I see it falling out in the following way:


TEXAS:

I predict Obama by at least 10 pts.

OHIO:

two scenarios:

If Obama wins, I see him ahead by between 6 to 10 pts.

If Clinton wins, I see a smaller of margin of no more than 3.

If Clinton wins by that small a margin, and because of the way the delegate count is set up in Ohio, its possible for her to still come out of it with LESS delegates. But even if she breaks even, that makes Ohio a wash in total delegates.

that means Clinton will have to push hard to strongarm superdelegates and to try to seat Michigan and Florida. I see both of these as failed efforts. The superdelegates will not go against their constituents to point of hurting their own political careers, and seating Mich and Florida will not survive the convention floor.


what do you guys think, what are your predictions?

[dempartisan23]

1. great prediction

[Johnny__Motown]

2. Reasonable. My prediction is that Barack nets more delegates than Hillary on 3/4

Not gonna get down in the dirt with the details. It just fits the pattern.

[Lerkfish]

6. the pattern seems to trend Obama bouncing higher than the polls going in

by at least 4-7 points.

right now, Clinton is only 6 points ahead of Obama (it might be less now, I haven't heard recently) in Ohio. That means by past performance that would put her at least one point back.

[AtomicKitten]

3. Barack has her pinned.

I don't see her coming anywhere near the ballpark of what she needs to do to gain any traction. The election math wizards have come up with the formula that she needs to win 65%-35% in Texas and Ohio and 70%-30% in Pennsylvania to just catch up. Now the question is how ugly does she exit the stage. That is tied to her future viability as a candidate and I hope, for once this election cycle, the Clintons think long and hard about the potential repercussions for them.

K&R :hi:

[Lerkfish]

5. true.

I'm concerned, actually about how she leaves the stage if only for her own viability in the future. Not that I would vote for her against Obama right now but there might come a time in future elections when she could be the better choice.

However, if she leaves this bitter and ugly no one is going to back her next time, I don't think.

thanks for your post, it made me think.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. A few days ago I thought Clinton would take Ohio, but the trend seems to defy that.

Unless there is evidence to suggest Obama has stalled there, by Tuesday he will have a lead.

Each day it appears he makes up 2-3 points in the polls.

[Riley133]

7. Polls are not reliable in Ohio IMO....been there, done that in 2004. nt

[Flabbergasted]

8. I actually think it will be another clean sweep with the possible excetion of RI