Hillary surges to 40 point lead among Texas hispanics in new Belo poll, 33 point lead in IA poll

[Herman Munster]

http://www.kvue.com/news/top/stories/022908kvuepoll-bkm.e08db71.html

Early voting ended in Texas Friday, as a new Belo Texas poll shows that Sen. Hillary Clinton has retaken the lead in the state by a narrow margin.

The poll shows Clinton now has 46 percent of the vote, just ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, who has 45 percent.

That marks a switch from their positions Thursday night, when Obama was ahead with 46 to Clinton’s 45 percent. In both cases, the race remains a statistical tie.

The poll also indicates that turnout among Hispanic voters could be the deciding factor in Tuesday’s election.

Clinton has gone from a 29 point lead among Hispanics earlier in the week, to a 40-point gap now.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_229_250.aspx

February 29, 2008 — In a very fluid Texas Democratic presidential primary, in which InsiderAdvantage’s most recent poll is the only major poll to show Hillary Clinton with a narrow lead, the core question is this: “What’s the cause for disparity between our poll and others’?

“We faced this same situation when we showed Mike Huckabee doing much better on Super Tuesday in several southern states than did other pollsters, all of whom we have great respect for,” said Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage.

“What our polling this week has picked up is a movement among Hispanic voters to Clinton. To test the validity of this trend, our latest poll surveyed only Hispanic registered voters who are likely to vote in the Texas Democratic primary, instead of polling all demographic groups (which we’ve also done.) This target polling is the only way to get a sample of a particular critical demographic and also have a statistically acceptable margin of error.”

The survey was conducted Feb. 27 and 28 among 436 likely Texas Hispanic Democratic voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%. The data have been weighted for age, gender and political affiliation. Here are the results:

Hillary Clinton: 62%
Barack Obama: 29%
Undecided: 9%

“If these numbers hold, it will be left to white Democrats in Texas to determine who wins on Tuesday. That’s why I believe the Clinton campaign took the risky move of running the ‘Three in the morning phone call’ ad. It is clearly targeted to white Democrats, who have become the swing vote in the contest.

“I still believe this race could shift back towards Obama. In a word, I think the race is basically even right now.

“Nevertheless, one thing is clear, at least in our survey: Currently Sen. Clinton is winning the Hispanic vote by a huge margin. That accounts for our poll showing the race as being closer than most other polls do,” Towery said. “Developments and trends over the weekend will almost surely decide this race.”

[Bicoastal]

1. Odd, Belo has had her uptop every single time, and yet it's the only TX poll

she seems to be consistently winning, from what I've been noticing.

[meow mix]

22. that is kinda odd..

hmm..

[Blue_Roses]

24. See post #19

nt

[anonymous171]

2. What's with your race obsession?

[Herman Munster]

3. if hillary wins hispanics 70=30, she's going to win Texas

[Alhena]

6. Popular vote yes, but hispanics are de-emphasized in delegates

due to poor turnout in the past.

[Blue_Roses]

10. There. Is. No. Way.

she will get seventy percent of the Hispanic vote...dream the fuck on...

[Herman Munster]

14. really?

She got 70% of the hispanic vote in California.

And most of the polls had Obama winning by margins up to 13%.

[Blue_Roses]

16. you obviously didn't read the WHOLE summary... it has flip-flopped

each day.

http://www.wfaa.com/s/dws/img/standing/wfaa/poll/data/0229/summary0229.pdf

BELO Texas Tracking Poll 1
BELO TEXAS TRACKING POLL


EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 10:00 p.m. Friday, Feb. 29, 2008

Democratic Race Still Deadlocked: The Race Hinges on Turnout
Democratic Primary
1. Four days out from the Texas Democratic presidential primary, the race remains a statistical
tie, but now it’s back to a 46%-45% lead for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama. The seesaw
battle for a one point lead over the past couple of days underscores the critical
importance for both campaigns of mobilizing their supporters and getting people out to the
polls next Tuesday. One thing is clear however -- Hillary Clinton will not come out of the
Texas primary with the share of Texas delegates she needs to catch Obama nationally.

Feb. 24-25 Feb. 24-26 Feb. 25-27 Feb. 26-28
Clinton Obama
’08 Democratic Preference
Among likely Democratic primary voters
The movement that we have seen over the past couple of days -- first in Barack Obama’s
favor and today in Hillary Clinton’s, has been a function of changing support for the
candidates among the racial and ethnic groups so critical to this race. This race most likely
will be decided by Hispanic and African American turnout. Voter turnout among these two
groups has historically been low relative to their respective potentials, which adds to the
mystery of this race and how to predict turnout of these two groups newly energized by
these two candidates. A disproportionately high turnout of Hispanics favors Hillary
Clinton, while a disproportionately high turnout of African Americans favors Barack
Obama. A high turnout among both groups likely favors Barack Obama.
o What was a 29-point gap in favor of Hillary Clinton among Hispanics yesterday (61%-
32%) has climbed to a 40-point gap for Clinton (67%-27%) after our latest night of
interviewing. This is the first good news we’ve seen for Hillary Clinton in the past few
days, as there were indications that Barack Obama was beginning to make inroads with
Hispanics.
o In the face of Hillary Clinton’s gain among Hispanics, Barack Obama continues to hold
an overwhelming lead among African Americans 76%-13%, virtually unchanged from
yesterday’s 79%-12%.
o Hillary Clinton continues to lead among white voters (49% of the sample) by a 49%-42%
margin.
BELO Texas Tracking Poll 2
2. Another group that typically turns out in low numbers is younger voters, specifically 18-29
year olds, but 30-49 year olds as well. Support for these two candidates is strongly
correlated with age. Voters under 50, particularly men, support Obama, while those 50 and
older, particularly women, support Clinton. While African American turnout will be critical
for Obama, he’ll also need to mobilize and turn out the youth vote.
3. Among likely Democratic primary voters, the economy/jobs continues to be the most
important issue in their vote for a nominee.


more...

[Blue_Roses]

17. Texas ain't California...by a long shot.

[NJSecularist]

11. Yes, I agree, but there is a big chance of that not happening

And you selectively cherrypicking polls that suit what you want to see and ignoring everything else doesn't do you any favors...

[skipos]

7. You know how blacks, men, the youth, caucuses, and red states don't count?

Well, white people don't count in TX. You may have heard that Hillary needed to win TX by 20%, but that isn't true anymore. She just needs to win the hispanics by that amount. Sorry, that's just the way it is, I don't make the rules. Hillary does. As she goes along.

[jackson_dem]

31. Because race matters in voting, especially since the swiftboating of the Clintons on race

Look at these numbers and tell me with a straight face this was just a one in a million fluke...

South Carolina

Whites: Edwards 40, Hillary 36, Obama 24
Blacks: Obama 78, Hillary 19, Edwards 1

What are the odds of this randomly happening?

[Demagitator]

4. kick

:kick:

[tandem5]

5. good news, thanks nt

[Johnny__Motown]

8. Read more of it please, 45-46 with most of her vote Hispanics means Obama wins more delegates

She still needs 58% of all the remaining delegates and 65% of the delegates in states she has a shot at winning. She can't afford to win a state by a slim margin and lose in the delegate count.

[Blue_Roses]

9. Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage.

why is it that everytime we see a poll with Hillary "soaring" his name is attached...:eyes:

[KLee]

12. Guess there are only...

Hispanics in Texas...

Wow I didn't know my family was Hispanic.

Yet another spin.

[grantcart]

13. last 10 poll average O 47.5 C 44.4

quote
The latest Poll Shows 48.2 and 41.7

The survey found Obama leading 48.2 percent to 41.7 percent over Clinton statewide. The poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday for the Houston Chronicle, Reuters and C-SPAN by Zogby International, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The tracking poll, which will be conducted daily until next Tuesday's election, found Obama leading with both men and women. He and Clinton were essentially tied among Anglos, but he held 84.9 percent support among blacks and she had the support of 54.9 percent of the Hispanics surveyed.

That Hispanic backing helped give Clinton a lead in South Texas of 66.7 percent. She also led in West Texas, which would include heavily Hispanic El Paso.

Obama led in every other region and was supported by about 60 percent of those surveyed in Houston and Dallas — which have more nominating delegates at stake than all of the region from San Antonio to Brownsville to El Paso.
unquote

I read the numbers earlier and while it is true that Clinton retained a large lead in Hispanics, Obama took every other demographic including non hispanic women. It also showed late breaking deciders going Obama60+. Having a large concentration of Hispanic support does not however work well on the delegate side because delegates are distributed based on 2004 and in that election Hispanics went with Bush.

[MadBadger]

15. Belo poll still under represents Obama's African American Support

They have him at like 75 %. He will get closer to 85-90 percent like he has everywhere else.

[grantcart]

20. relax its just a PAR

Post and Run

[jackson_dem]

32. Maybe the effect of the swiftboating of the Clintons on race is wearing off?

It is funny how it is assumed that Obama will get 85-90% black support but Hillary getting 70% Latino support is unfathomable.

[MadBadger]

33. You know I'm not going to get into an arugment with you on the first pointt

On the second one, do you see me questioning the Latino Numbers?

[jackson_dem]

34. Not you but other Obama supporters

Regardless of your view on the racial flap and who started it, surely you can agree that it is plausible that some of the wounds have been healed by time and that may explain Hillary's unusually high (post-incident) black support in this poll. Or it could be an aberration. Remember how polls were showing many black undecided voters were breaking to Edwards and he was approaching double digit black support--for the first time anywhere in this cycle--in South Carolina but when the vote came he got only 1% of the black vote. The same thing may be happening to Hillary.

[MadBadger]

35. You know what I think happens with the black vote?

Undecided blacks voted in large numbers for Obama. Just like undecided non-blacks walk in and end up pulling the lever for Hillary cuz they may feel more comfortable with her, black undecideds pull that lever for Obama. Most polls I've seen out of TX btw show his black support to be over 80 percent.

[jackson_dem]

37. Maybe

I don't remember much talk about the racial breakdown for undecideds except in SC when a disproportionate number were black and they were heavily breaking for Edwards until, apparently, the last minute. You may be right. I just don't know enough about this to comment.

Have the polls shown that with whites? Look at Wisconsin. Most polls had her down by 4-5 but she lost by 17.

He probably is that high but I would not be surprised to see a small movement back to Clinton as time heals the wounds of January. The thing is Obama's white support is wildly inconsistent. He won places like Idaho, North Dakota, and Utah by big margins in these almost all white states but then he goes out and pulls in the low 20's in Alabama and South Carolina. He desperately needs to retain that 85-90% support among blacks he consistently has gotten due to the inconsistency he has with whites. Blacks are about 20% of Democratic primary voters nationally so Obama starts, on average, up 17-3 (assuming 85% support) in the typical state. If Obama's support falls to 70% among blacks then he starts with a 14-6 advantage. That small swing of 15% among blacks would cost him a net loss of 6 points and this would be huge given the national popular vote (minus FL and MI) stands at 50-46.

Of course a similar argument can be made about Hillary and Latinos.

[MadBadger]

38. I'm not shocked that Obama takes a white state like Iowa/ND/or Wisco and not whites in the South

Its the south that is doing that. I mean Obama really has only had problem with the white vote in the South.

I think the pivotal thing for Obama is not the margin of victory among African Americans, but instead the GOTV effort for them. I think he will have a 70 point advantage among blacks, but key is to turn them out. Same goes for the Latinos. Thats why some say its all about the White vote because Latinos may make up a higher percentage of the vote, but Obama will take a greater percentage of the blacks than Hillary will of the latinos. I do think no matter what happens in TX, he will walk away with more delegates out of there. It just makes me wonder what's happening in Ohio, because some polls show that tightening even more. I think the biggest downside for Hillary is that there are actually two states in between March 4th, and PA. If she does very well, winning 3 out of 4 states, she wont gain all that many delegates, and Obama will have a good chance to slow any Momentum she has coming off of March 4th in Mississippi and Wyoming. The Total African American Population in MS is 38%, which means among democrats its probably even higher. And Wyoming is just one of those states Obama does well in. So I think no matter what happens, he is still in good shape.

Though i admit to having no idea what's going on in OH and TX, I'm gonna stick by my projection that Obama will end up winning TX by 7, and lose OH by four. He will therefore with a huge victory in Vermont and an 8 point loss in RI, walk away with more delegates on Tuesday.

[woolldog]

40. Are Latinos

particularly energized about this election? if so, why? I mean on what basis is everyone expecting their % of the electorate to swell?

[jackson_dem]

43. Yes but it is unfair to blame it on racism right now based on the available evidence

No one is saying Obama getting 80+ of the black vote everywhere is racist, right? Remember, the Clinton brand carried the South in the general in 1996 and won much of it in the 92' general not to mention dominating it in the 92' primaries. Hillary is white and she is getting overwhelming white support in that region just like Obama is with blacks. If Obama is the nominee we will know if race was a factor based on how many white Democrats defect. Right now Obama isn't doing that bad with 20% defections, only 9 higher than Kerry in 2004 and 10 higher than Hillary. You could argue race explains that but to believe that you would have to believe white "independents" are less racist than white Democrats because they vote for Obama at higher rates than Democrats vote for Hillary and that offsets Obama's relative weakness with Democrats. I don't think that is the case. If race truly will be a factor in that many will vote against Obama simply because of his color it would happen across-the-board and no evidence suggests that will happen. If Obama gets weaker down the road if he is the nominee, as he inevitably will (the question for me is whether he can bounce back unlike Kerry and Dukakis), it will be because he declines among all groups, not just whites.

You are right. GOTV will be vital for both sides. You are right that Obama will win a higher share of the black vote than Hillary will the Latino vote but the Latino vote is substantially bigger than the black vote in Texas. It will come out to be more or a less a wash when you factor that in and whites, ironically, will be the swing voters.

He has a great chance of winning more delegates in TX. The only way that won't happen is if the polls are off and Hill winds up winning by double digits like Obama did in Wisconsin. The big thing for Hill is winning. A win is a win. Obama supporters made a big deal about delegates in Nevada but the real world considered Hill the winner. Delegates matter for obvious reasons but Texas and Ohio are not so much about delegates for Hill at this point but about showing that she remains viable. Winning both will do that.

I don't think WY and MS will get that much press on the heels of Ohio and Texas. I could be wrong but look at how little 2/9 got after Super Tuesday, although 2/12 was a big deal. Besides, it is expected that Obama will win both anyway. Remember Hill tied Obama on Super Tuesday and won most of the big states but that did nothing to stop his SC momentum. I think WY/MS will be like that, not like 2/12 or SC as far as momentum goes. Regardless, with 5 weeks until PA after WY/MS momentum will change a lot during that time with debates, campaigning, and we have already seen signs the msm will go after Obama a bit now as will the rethug machine. If Obama was up 50-46 (minus FL and MI) while pristine I wouldn't be surprised if he is much weaker by April 22 after being bloodied a bit. I wouldn't be surprised if he still won PA but I don't think smooth sailing is assured for Obama during the 6 weeks after March 4, assuming Hill stays alive (keep in mind the Rezko trial starts on Monday. Even if nothing new comes out just the headlines about it will hurt Obama and remember that many Americans still haven't heard about the Rezko story. It goes to the heart of Obama's clean/reform brand).

Right now I had to bet I would say about the same: Hill be 5 in OH, Obama by 3 in Texas. Obama winning by 25-30 in Vermont and Hill be 10-15 in Rhode Island. This is probably the consensus too, which makes Hill winning Texas and Ohio an even bigger upset and momentum changer.

[MadBadger]

44. The reason that 2/9 wasnt as big of a deal was that it was on Saturday

You'll see a similar thing with Wyoming, where it could be treated like a Nevada for the Repukes. But MS falls on a Tuesday which is a different story when it comes to coverage and press.

[jackson_dem]

45. I disagree, although that must have been a factor

SC was on a Saturday too and it was seen as a big deal. Actually both SC's were. The rethug Nevada may be similar to MS and WY. No one cared about it, even though it was on the same day as the rethug SC, because everyone expected Romney to win it easily (a major reason everyone else ceded NV to Romney was because of a large Mormon population in Nevada. The same thing applies to MS except it is blacks this time and not Mormons in play). Ron Paul actually finished second in the rethug NV and got no bounce out of it. I think the states that voted on 2/9, plus the expected outcomes, conspired to make them unimportant. No major state voted on 2/9. Moreover, the media narrative was: ST and then 2/12. 2/12 was a big deal. The media narrative now is: 3/4 and then PA. MS and WY won't hurt Obama but I also don't think they will do anywhere near for him what IA, SC, 2/12, WI, and even his draw on ST did for him. It certainly won't reverse 3/4. Besides, this is a moot issue anyway, although it is fun for us political junkies to discuss. There are 6 weeks until PA after TX/OH/RI/VT and Obama and Hill will practically move to PA during that period. Whatever momentum someone has coming out of 3/4 or even WY/MS will be gone by the time PA votes. PA will be decided by their campaigning there. PA will kind of be like NH on steroids and for a shorter time.

The other thing about MS is, let's be honest here: Obama winning MS is as big a shocker as Romney winning Utah. Romney got I think 91% in Utah and the media didn't even mention it. That is a shockingly higher number for a competitive primary process, even with the obvious advantage Romney had there (he also had the bonus of it being kind of a home state for him too).

[woolldog]

39. I doubt it

"He probably is that high but I would not be surprised to see a small movement back to Clinton as time heals the wounds of January."

I can almost guarantee you that's not going to happen. In fact I think Clinton has made it worse given her attacks on Obama. A lot her attacks on how inexperienced he is, how she won't need a "manual to get by on foreign policy" and so on--whether the perception is fair or not--come across as patronizing and rubs a lot of black voters the wrong way.

[cali]

36. No matter how many times you repeat that false statement

it won't make it any truer. It's disgusting to repeat outright lies. And very, very few people in the real world buy that lie.
Tough for YOU and others who are pushing it. And due to the demographics- many latino voters in TX are young, she won't be getting 70% of the latino vote. Add that to the fact that there's a caucus as well as the primary, and Hillary isn't looking too good in TX, and don't forget that he's outspending her by a huge number on TV advertising and has the better ground game. Just 3 weeks ago, she was claiming victory in TX and saying how important that state is. Now, the pathetic candidate is more or less dismissing TX.

[jackson_dem]

42. Yeah, and there are those who believe the original swiftboating never happened either

Many Latinos everywhere are young yet nationally Hill has dominated among Latinos. The fact Hill is in a dead heat with Obama in Texas means she is holding on strong with Latinos because she needs that to offset Obama's overwhelming black support. Money doesn't always buy votes as Romney proved this time and Dean in 2004.

[JackORoses]

41. one has happened in several contests, one has never happened

Obama will win Texas. Hillarite lawsuits and scary ads be damned.

[MadBadger]

18. I think this Poll is under sampling African American/Hispanic voters

It has only 14% and 19% of the voters as Black and hispanic respectively. White Voters apparently make up 62 % of the vote. That seems way off to me.

[Blue_Roses]

19. This poll is conducted by Dan Bartlett's company...Bush's "spokes person"

The exclusive Belo Texas WFAA tracking poll was conducted by Public Strategies Inc of Austin, Texas. The linked material contains analysis and opinions by Public Strategies and does not contain opinions of WFAA or BELO Corp. The data has been analyzed by polling experts at Public Strategies Inc who have then formulated opinions and trends on that data. To read the exclusive report, including the methodology behind the data, click the links below:

www.wfaa.com

AND,



Bartlett, Dan
Senior Strategist

His work with Public Strategies
Dan Bartlett employs his many years of high-level experience in politics, public policy and communications in assisting a broad range of Public Strategies’ clients. Bartlett counsels clients on public opinion campaigns, crisis communications, media relations and other strategic initiatives.

His earlier work
Bartlett, a former counselor to President George W. Bush, worked for seven years in the White House. He was responsible for all aspects of Bush’s strategic communications planning and the formulation of policy and implementation of the president’s agenda. He also oversaw the White House Press Office and the Offices of Communications, Media Affairs and Speechwriting.

Before being named counselor to the president, Bartlett was assistant to the president for communications and White House communications director. Earlier, he served as deputy assistant to the president and deputy to Karen Hughes when she was counselor to the president.

more...

http://www.pstrategies.com/personprofile.php?eid=293

[texas_indy]

21. Texas ain't California. We didn't have a month of mail in ballots before Obama started moving.

Too bad we can't see how the race would look now if they could re-vote. I bet Obama would win this time.

BOOKMARK THIS THREAD!! IN 4 days time we'll see who is winning Texas, and it ain't gonna be Hillary!

TEXAS FOR OBAMA!!

GET 'ER DONE!!


Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[RememberWellstone]

23. Very good news.

Obama will not get Hispanics nor moderates in this primary or the GE. The balloon is now coming down!:toast:

[Blue_Roses]

25. balloon?

geeze...:eyes: obviously you didn't read the whole summary.

[FogerRox]

26. Fair use of copyrighted material , 3-4 paragraphs, not 10.

[quantass]

27. TX doesn't look good for Hillary -- and recall she had a Massive lead a month back

So for one to point out the Hispanic #'s vs the state wide polls is a bit sad since recall a month back she had a double-digit lead over Obama...The pattern i've noticed is that, when people get to know Obama they universally tend to go Obama's way...how else to explain her pattern of dropping #'s every single time (big picture, state wide)...crazy...

My spidey senses tell me she has lost TX ... (remember: she has to not only win TX and OH but win them with large margins to stay alive).

[mrbluto]

28. It's becoming a knife fight.

With the Republicans waiting to take on the "Winner".

The General Election is in jeopardy.

This sort of back and forth is why you might want to read about http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4829034&mesg_id=4829034">The Three-Arm Baby

[ORDem]

29. Even ain't gonna cut it for Hillary. She can't close the delegate gap that way.

:kick:

[CyberPieHole]

30. Let's hope Hillary can pull wins in both Texas and Ohio...

:kick: and rec