How is Obama going to get the 2025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination?

[jlake]

[FrenchieCat]

1. However he gets them, he will do it before Hillary!

[jlake]

2. That wasn't the question. But thanks for the spam.

[meow mix]

11. heres the short answer:

hillary is toast.

[jlake]

12. Ah, more cat shit in a substantive thread.

[NJSecularist]

17. This was a substantive thread?

[jlake]

18. Yep. A real question seeking real answers.

[earthlover]

31. How...here's how....

He is ahead now by 150 pledged delegates. (Hillary has a lead of about 50 in the supers).

As long as Obama at least keeps it close in OH, TX and PA (which every indication now shows he will) then Hillary only makes small delegate gains here.

The rest of the states are small states, and some trend Obama.

Hillary would have to win by about 60+% of all these states, including OH, TX and PA, just to tie Obama in pledged delegates.

Do. The. Math. Unless Hillary wins BOTH TX and OH by 60% or so, there won't be more than a snowball's chance in hell of Hillary getting enough pledged delegates to overcome Obama's head start.

So, with Obama still leading in the pledged delegates, it would be hard for the remaining super delegates to go Hillary. So enough of them vote Obama (at this point, Obama doesn't even need a majority of The REMAINING SD's either) for Obama to win.

Hillary's only realistic chances are: a) making deals with SDs to overcome the will of the people so they go Hillary, even though Obama won more popular vote and pledged delegates.....an outcome that will split our party down the middle or b) going to court to get MI or FL delegates to count....again splitting the party down the middle if it reverses the nomination.

The Hillary Camp is doing a good job of spinning and goal line moving. However, her chances of catching up to Obama's pledged delegate totals are very, very slim. If she doesn't get 60% in OH and TX she can fight on, but failing that it will just get harder and harder for her to catch up as the number of remaining states declines.

[FARAFIELD]

28. well

he wins a few more primaries and what not, gets the endorsement of Edwards who relases his, and then the uncommitted in FLA and MICH go to him (hillary can have the rest) then he gets half the supers. and hes over. its pretty simple.

[Gore1FL]

3. I don't understand the question

he'll have the majority of delagates from the voting, and carry it over the top with a little less than half of the super delegates, from the current looks of it.

[jlake]

8. For not understanding the question, you sure gave a good answer.

[scheming daemons]

4. Here's how

All numbers from realclearpolitics.com

Current Delegates for Obama: 1384 (including Supers)

Current Delegates for Clinton: 1279 (including Supers)



Current uncommitted Superdelegates: 364

Current uncommitted pledged delegates (states that havent voted yet): 1021



If Obama gets 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, that gives him 510 more. That puts him at 1894.

At that point, he would only need 131 of the currently uncommitted 364 to get to 2025.




That's assuming that no more SDs bleed away from Hillary to Obama as they have this past week.

If Obama gets 50% of the delegates on March 4.... that will put him well over 1500... and the SD flood to him will make it impossible for him to lose.



It's basic math. The currently uncommitted SDs will go wherever the momentum is, by and large.

[John Q. Citizen]

26. Yep, it all over except for the bleating.

[quantass]

5. Technically, he has a shot of reaching 2025, but Hilary cannot at this point

Doing the math you can see only Obama can reach this goal and for Hilary it is not a possibility to reach 2025 anymore...
However, for Obama to do it, he would have to win the remanining states by the same margin of vicotries he has done over hilary on his standard avg 50% (if i am not mistaken, Obama beats hilary on avg by a margin of 33%)....so if he keeps that up he can do it, but being realistic i doubt he can maintain this pace so as to reach 2025 (the man needs a break some time)...However, Obama is in a better position where the powers of the democ party will step in and force Hilary out because she isn't winning enough (she needs to win big against him consistently which she has only done once).

Obama is in the driver seat and looking at the newest polls for TX, OH, if Hilary is going to win it isnt going to be by much and making it next to impossible for her to catch Obama for the next states....And god help her if she loses TX -- its over.

[lligrd]

6. Don't Be Silly, He Gets Them All

as soon as Hillary concedes. I thought Bill said she would have to if she didn't win Texas and Ohio but I see they are already flipping on that.

[jlake]

10. lol I don't know about that.

[theboss]

16. At some point, Hillary is going to have to think about her legacy

The math shows that Hillary cannot get to 2025 on the first ballot by any means. Obama can if a few things go right for him.

Hillary can obviously stop that from happening if she takes a scorched earth approach. But she will need to ask herself what she will have won at that point.

My thought is that if it goes to a second ballot, neither of them may end up with the nomination.

[jlake]

22. If she drops out, it does NOT mean that Obama will get "all of the delegates"

[Ravy]

27. The math is wrong.

[peace13]

23. Bill did say that...

but I think he was off of his meds that day. Peace, Kim Hussein

[Johnny__Motown]

7. Once Hillary loses Texas Super Delegates Will Flock To Obama

[quantass]

9. Agreed! Without Question.. -- Hilary is Toast

[lligrd]

14. Hey, I'm Pretty Sure That Toast Remark Is Sexist

Not sure how but I am sure it is. :sarcasm:

[jgraz]

15. No, but it is unfair to the toast

[Name removed]

20. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Johnny__Motown]

29. Texas Toast..oh great, thanks.... now I am hungry

[FogerRox]

24. From my seat it was over super tuesday

I'm in congressional mode now, I have 2 fundraisers set up for Tom Wyka in NJ-11.

[loveangelc]

25. how do we know hillary will lose texas? isn't it presumptuous to say that?

what evidence is there that obama will win tx, polls seem to be all over the place. im hoping people will end this in texas but they may not. it's not over.

[theboss]

13. If Hillary wants to destroy the party, she may be able to force a second ballot

Otherwise, Obama gets to 2025 one of three ways.

1. He wins Texas and Ohio, superdelegates and uncommiteds flock to him, and Edwards releases his delegates.
2. He wins Texas and Ohio and Hillary quits.
3. He wins Texas and keeps Ohio close and Hillary quits.

[DemVet]

33. Hey, if a second ballot is what it takes....

...so be it.

[tekisui]

41. I don't think it would go to a second ballot. Hillary could not force that.

The first ballot will most likely leave Obama with a majority, over 2025, of the delegates. The only way it would make it to a second ballot, is if Hillary is so close that Edwards 26 would make the difference. It won't be that close.

[Lucinda]

19. He gets them easily in

2016 when he runs after Hillarys 2 terms.

:P

[quakerboy]

21. If he pulls 50%

in the rest of the contests, and half of the remaining supers, that should just about do it.

say.... 1888 pledged, the 191 supers he has now, and 140 of the 288 remaining uncommited supers...

[Forkboy]

30. Which way will piss you off the most?

[cali]

32. he'll win TX and VT and come close in OH and RI

picking up more delegates on Tues than Hill. If she stays on, more and more SDs will endorse him in an attempt to get her to see that it's time for her to drop out. He'll win big in WY and MS, and win in PA. Hill will drop out. Presto. He's the nominee. Any more questions?

[UALRBSofL]

34. Obama will have to rely on superdelegates to get the 2025

And because of that reason alone this can carry on to the convention because realistically SD's can change there mind as far as the convention. I'm not saying it will last that long but technically he needs the SD's to achieve the 2025.

[cali]

35. It won't go to the Convention

the party bigwigs and SDs won't let it.

[mohc]

36. The big question now is WHEN he is going to get 2024 (no longer 2025)

Clinton's superdelegate lead has dropped from 100 to under 50 in a matter of 20 days. At this point Clinton is losing more of her superdelegates to Obama than she is picking up, and one that trend is quite likely to continue. There seems to be this misconception that the superdelegates who are not committed yet are likely to stay that way until the convention, but that is not very probable. Eventually we will hit a tipping point, and most of the remaining superdelegates will voice their intentions. While some of them might endorse Clinton, it will almost certainly be offset by current Clinton superdelegates switching to Obama. Basically, Clinton is going to end up with close the 240 superdelegates she currently has, and Obama is going to end up with 550 or so. Meanwhile on the pledged delegate side, Obama currently leads by more than 150. One reason that in the end Obama's lead is going to be artificially high is that once it is all but certain that he wins the nomination, a point he will quite likely reach on Tuesday, there will be a rally effect and he will start winning the contests by larger margins than he is even currently winning. Even if Clinton stays in the race, she will struggle to get the 15% threshold in the final states, although she will probably fare well in PA. The pledged delegate gap is going to grow from this point on, and will be padded by the final states going almost completely to him. In the end he will have far more than the 2024 now needed.

Its basically this simple, with Edwards only having 26 delegates, either Clinton or Obama will top 2024 so long as the gap between the two exceeds 26. Only if Clinton gets to within 26 delegates can she keep him under 2024.

[tekisui]

37. Simply.

Obama: Pledged--1187 SuperD's--191

Obama, current total: 1,378

Obama, needed to secure: 647

Pledged left: 1,092

SuperD's left: about 287

Percent of Pledged Only left needed to secure: 59.2%

Percent of Pledged and SuperD's left needed to secure: 46.9%

Obama's recent wins: HI-76%, WI-58%, MD-60%, DC-75%, VA-64%, LA-57%, WA-68%, NE-68%, MN-66%, AK-75%, ID-79%, IL-65%, KS-74%, ND-61%, CO-67%, ME-59%


Do you get it?

[UALRBSofL]

39. tekisui of course I get it but he can't get the 2025 without the SD's

and for that reason alone technically Hillary could stay in until the convention because we know SD's are not obligated and can change there mind like the wind blows. I doubt that would happen but I'm just saying.

[tekisui]

40. Looking at Pledged Alone.

If you are wanting to find out how either of them could reach 2025, without SuperD's, here:

Obama pledged: 1,182

Clinton pledged: 1,031

Pledged left: 1,092

Percent needed for Obama to secure: 77.1%

Percent needed for Clinton to secure: 91%

One could happen, the other absolutely could not.

[mckeown1128]

38. After Hillary drops out this Wednesday or Thursday....

Obama the superdelegates will endorse Obama. He will win the rest of the uncontested primaries. By then he should easily have the required numbers.