BREAKING CSPAN-Reuters/Houston Chronicle poll: Clinton surges in Texas/Obama surges in Ohio

[Tropics_Dude83]

Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle Poll: Democrats Locked in Tight Races: Clinton Closes on Obama in Texas; Pair Deadlocked in Ohio
Republican John McCain retains wide leads in Ohio and Texas in advance of Tuesday's primaries
UTICA, New York—Democrat Hillary Clinton stemmed her losses and solidified her base in Texas, reversing a slide against rival Barack Obama in the race for their party’s presidential nomination, while Obama continued his thrust to catch her in Ohio as voters in these two big states prepare to vote on Tuesday, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day rolling telephone tracking polls show.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain appears to be continuing his march to the GOP nomination, holding big leads in both states, the surveys show.

Clinton leads by a scant one percent among Texas women, but the race is also close among Texas men, where Obama leads by just 5%, much less than in some earlier states in this epic Democratic Party battle. As has been the case elsewhere, Clinton leads among older voters, but Obama leads big among younger Texas Democrats. Clinton had a big day Friday in the Zogby call center, leading Obama by double-digits in the Texas survey. She retains a significant lead among Hispanic voters there, a key demographic in the Democratic primary.

Texas - Democrats
2-27/29
2-26/28

Clinton
43%
42%

Obama
45%
48%

Gravel
<1%
<1%

Someone else
3%
3%

Not sure
8%
7%


In Ohio, the two Democrats have drawn dead-even to the tenth of a percent (44.8% each), as Clinton continued to show strength in northern Ohio outside Cleveland, but trailed Obama badly in northeast Ohio and in burgeoning central Ohio, where the capital city of Columbus is home to many state government workers. Clinton leads in the more sparsely-populated, less affluent southern Ohio region. She also retains a small lead among Catholics, an important voting bloc in this Rust Belt state.

Ohio - Democrats
2-27/29
2-26/28

Clinton
45%
44%

Obama
45%
42%

Gravel
1%
1%

Someone else
3%
5%

Not sure
6%
9%

[featherman]

1. It's all about the ground game now

[bigdarryl]

27. The bottom line hear is shes not going to win either state by 65% to stop his delegate lead

[ruggerson]

2. It's Zogby - I don't buy any of it

[FARAFIELD]

19. Zogby blows

IM still smarting from his famous OHIO and FLORIDA "trending Kerry" on election night. Christ he got that wrong and has pretty much sucked since. The Poll of the Polls is a better indication as long as you keep in mind the Keith Number

[theboss]

3. Every poll is pretty much within the margin of error at this point

In general, that's good for Obama considering of the ground he had to make up. Now, it's really just a question of who wins the beauty pageant.

[bigdarryl]

4. Funny how he doesn't mention the african american vote which is a factor in DELEGATES

[Tropics_Dude83]

7. Interesting

leading Obama by double-digits in the Texas survey.

Last minute HRC surge back from the dead???

[TwilightGardener]

5. She went from 42% to 43%--1% is a "surge"?

[Tropics_Dude83]

8. No but see my above post

She had a huge night on Friday, leading by double digits.

[book_worm]

45. Obama supporters aren't sitting at home by their phones on a Friday night.

[Alhena]

11. Hillary does seem to be surging in TX- the Belo poll showed that too

[TwilightGardener]

18. The Belo poll that was posted wasn't a "surge" either--they are

in a statistical dead heat.

[jackson_dem]

44. That has nothing to do with whether or not a candidate is surging

Surge=sharp rise in support or closing the gap with a combination of a rise in support and a decline for an opponent. Where was she prior to that poll? If she came from behind to make it a dead heat that is arguably a surge. It certainly is real progress.

[bigdarryl]

6. After Zogby fucked up CA i don't know if I trust him from what i hear in TX

young voters are voting in masses he might be under polling the younger voters.

[grantcart]

43. zogby has been in the middle, if you take out CA they are near the top

The survey found Obama leading 48.2 percent to 41.7 percent over Clinton statewide. The poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday for the Houston Chronicle, Reuters and C-SPAN by Zogby International, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

I read the numbers this morning and it showed Obama ahead in every demographic but hispanics (including women)

The Zogby poll is almost exactly the same as the average over the last 10 polls which shows O 47.5 and C 44.4

[texas_indy]

9. Is this the poll you are talking about?? Poll: McCain and Obama lead in Texas

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5580776.html

Feb. 29, 2008, 2:23AM
Poll: McCain and Obama lead in Texas
Huckabee is still defiant; Clinton maintains hold on Hispanic vote


If so, then the titles don't seem to match, huh?? Wonder why?




Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[bigdarryl]

22. she only has 7.5% of the black vote DAMN!!!

[writes3000]

10. I'm sorry but these day-to-day surveys with wildly fluctuating results seem like...

bullshit to me.

If the results are consistent for three days in a row, then I'll believe them.

Big double digit changes over the course of 24 hours suggest a big changing event or (more likely) a questionable survey system.

[Tropics_Dude83]

12. Writes3000

First to the poster before you, I call it a surge based on the fact that she led by double digits in the Friday portion of the survey.

Now to you, there was a game changer today. It was the "nuclear" Clinton red phone moment ad. Apparently, it worked and it worked big.

[anonymous171]

13. 1%=surge

Yeah. It worked, big.

[Tropics_Dude83]

14. Again read the article

She LED by double digits last night in the Friday portion.

Anyway, this Obama surge in Ohio is awesome news. Two new polls, one U of C, one Zogby, showing him tied or leading now. Sweet.

[anonymous171]

17. Oh, I thought you were saying that CLINTON surged.

nvm then.

[writes3000]

30. Sorry, I don't believe it.

One commercial is causing such huge double digits changes from Obama leading by double digits to Hillary leading by double digits?

These would have to be the most indecisive, easily influenced voters ever. Don't buy it.

Again, I question the polling methods.

[texas_indy]

32. where did she lead by double digits?? Not Texas since she is behind Obama

and the only figures I see in the article have it at single digit lead for Hillary.

"The tracking poll in Ohio showed a close race, with Clinton leading 44.1 percent to 41.5 percent over Obama. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points."

Where does it state she lead by double digits in this poll? You have to be using another poll. What is the link to that one.



Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[writes3000]

34. He/she is saying that the polls for Friday night...

Have Hillary winning by double-digits. It's in the article. Read it closely. It means that tonight's numbers vary significantly from last night's number or the numbers from the day before that.

[texas_indy]

37. wow, people are basing surge talk on this type of proof??

"Clinton leads by a scant one percent among Texas women, but the race is also close among Texas men, where Obama leads by just 5%, much less than in some earlier states in this epic Democratic Party battle. As has been the case elsewhere, Clinton leads among older voters, but Obama leads big among younger Texas Democrats. Clinton had a big day Friday in the Zogby call center, leading Obama by double-digits in the Texas survey. She retains a significant lead among Hispanic voters there, a key demographic in the Democratic primary."


I can't wait to see how that one was done.

Thanks for pointing it out too me. I was trying to find some graph to show that!! LOL




Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[bigdarryl]

15. Wonder what the polls are going to look like on Monday with the news of..

this supposed lawsuit Clinton wants to stop the Caucus in TX it seems she doesn't like state rules on how they run there primaries.

[NJSecularist]

16. There is no "surge" here

1 percent is not a surge. I'm not denying that HRC is gaining momentum in Texas: it's possible. But this poll is not good evidence of it. All it shows is that there are much more undecideds than there were yesterday.

One day tracking polls are useless without days and days of data to show that there is a trend.

[Tropics_Dude83]

21. If you look at the tone of the Zogby article,

HRC "reconnecting with her voters, expanding leads", etc., there are good signs for her there.

The good news is that if she won Ohio and Obama won TX, she'd say the democrats can't win TX in the GE and can win OH, so TX doesn't matter.

She can't say that about Ohio. I'd take a Obama victory in Ohio even if someone told me it would entail losing TX significantly.

[NJSecularist]

28. One day tracking polls are notoriously unreliable

I'd advise for you not to overreact and to wait for two or three more days of data before we say Hillary is surging in Texas.

Likewise for Obama in Ohio.

[Tropics_Dude83]

31. Deal n/t:)

[Maddy McCall]

20. Where's the link?

I'd like to see the article where you got your info. Thanks.

[Tropics_Dude83]

23. http://www.zogby.com thanks:)

[bigdarryl]

24. remember Zogby had NJ all tied up and Clinton won by about seven points so he's sometimes

off the mark

[TwilightGardener]

25. Zogby had Obama with a big lead in CA--was wayyyy off there.

[Kahuna]

47. He had Mittens winning CA too. That's how I knew it was bogus. nt

[VolcanoJen]

26. Reflecting the on-the-ground situation in Ohio, finally

Look everyone... northern Ohio is HillaryLand... institutional, hard-core Democratic support.

Gets much more difficult to poll downstate in Central and Southern Ohio. We're in a race to the finish. I'll be canvassing Cincinnati all day Saturday and Sunday, and back to the basics all day Tuesday, Election Day.

Volunteers are flooding in. If Ohio will be won by Obama, it's going to happen Columbus and South. Watch for it!!

[Tropics_Dude83]

29. Remember Missouri

If Obama can carry MO, IL and WI, he should be able to carry Ohio albeit extremely narrowly.

[VolcanoJen]

35. He's had less time to organize here than in other states.

That's my only trepidation... Clinton has the party machinery on her side. Obama can only beat her on the ground, and do it from Columbus south, east and west.

It's looking good, if you ask me. :-)

[Tropics_Dude83]

36. I forgot about the machine:( ugh

Yes, that is an unfortunate advantage of hers:(

[NJSecularist]

39. The Ohio River counties and the Greater Cleveland area are areas...

where Obama is going to have a tough time. Keeping the margins of defeat down in those areas could be a sign of good things for Obama in Ohio.

[VolcanoJen]

41. On election night, watch for Dayton, Cincinnati, Columbus, Athens...

... look at every region outside of Cleveland/Youngstown/Akron/Canton. And I even feel good about those areas... but if we're playing it safe, look at the state south of Columbus to go big for Obama.

[KLee]

33. l

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4829406

[ORDem]

38. I'm not sure, but I think "surge" is sexist. n/t

:dem:

[woolldog]

40. good one

:spray:

[Drunken Irishman]

42. Don't trust daily tracking polls.

Especially just one day sample sizes. I do not think either Clinton or Obama are surging in either Ohio or Texas and it will level out, I guarantee it.

Remember, the Monday before the Wisconsin primary, there was an apparent "surge" to Clinton in the Gallup tracking poll. It proved to be an anomaly. If by Sunday Clinton continues building a lead in this poll, then you can say it's more than an anomaly, but right now it's pointless to use one day of polling as evidence of any type of surge.

[book_worm]

46. Everybody seems to be paying attention to the Texas numbers, but...

if HRC is "surging" in Texas it seems like Obama is gaining huge ground in Ohio. He must have had a big day there on Friday too. But the thing is lets see where the trends lead. One day in a tracking poll is not going to tell the story. If it continues over the next few days then there may be a trend, but we'll see.