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Even if FL and MI were counted, Clinton would still be losing

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EmperorHasNoClothes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 11:47 AM
Original message
Even if FL and MI were counted, Clinton would still be losing
Current delegate counts per CNN

Clinton
Current delegates: 1031
Florida (50% won by Clinton): 105
Michigan (55% won by Clinton): 86
Clinton's Total: 1222

Pledged superdelegates: 236
Clinton's total, including superdelegates: 1458


Obama
Current delegates: 1184
Florida (33% won by Obama): 69
Michigan (45% not won by Clinton): 70
Obama's Total: 1323 (101 more than Clinton)

Pledged superdelegates: 185
Obama's total, including superdelegates: 1508 (50 more than Clinton)

Obama's superdelegate count is increasing steadily, and Clinton's is decreasing steadily. Without a Clinton blowout of 65%+ this Tuesday, there's no reason to think this trend will change.

This explains why she is now challenging the voting rules in Texas. She simply can not win at this point.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 11:49 AM
Response to Original message
1. The writing is clearly on the wall.
It will be vocalized wednesday.
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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 11:54 AM
Response to Original message
2. And by Wednesday - SDs will begin flocking toward Obama.
There is no way to win this game. She had no chance against his ground game, and her mind game has fallen far short. She mistakingly took us for republicans, and counted on us not being engaged, just following the obvious - "Clinton" brand. She had no game plan at all, short of showing up in select states, spending large amounts of money on luxury hotels, parking, etc. And hosting small, closed town halls for people that were already her dedicated supporters. Now she speaks in H.S. gymnasiums, while Obama fills entire arenas. His ground game is running all over her, and short of name recognition - she has little more to live by.

Mistakingly, she (and her misplaced attitude) put her trust in the wrong people - and they destroyed her. I would have fired Penn & the Lot ages ago for making her run a campaign as the presumptive winner. What nerve... I'd also be questioning his underlying motives. Afterall, he was paid by her - and destroyed her. Of course her own arrogance and seemingly birthright claim to the throne didn't help - but his advice only festered the infection until it exploded.
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Agreed!
She needs to start thinking about 2012 and 2016 now! She needs to totally change her entire political being to be viable for a run later. Fire the idiots! Spend time with the family! and come back a changed person in 2012!
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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. With a little humility...
She might have a chance in 2016. Take a few years to back out of the scene... and as you stated, around 2012 come back and let start letting the spotlight shine (in non-obvious ways) on the work she's doing - become a leader... Then in 2016, she'll likely have a chance again.
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HooptieWagon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 12:04 PM
Response to Original message
5. Actually Clinton has a slight lead
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

However, those numbers count MI's "uncommitted" delegates as still being uncommitted. It is logical to assume they will vote for Obama, thus giving him a moderate lead. Since tuesday will almost certainly add to Obama's delegate lead, it is almost a lost cause for Hillary to gain the nomination, barring a miracle or theft.
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EmperorHasNoClothes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Right. The only fair way to count Michigan without a revote
would be to assign Clinton's delegates to her, and the remaining delegates to Obama. That's the assumption I made in my numbers above.
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bigtree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-01-08 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
7. yet, not by enough for Obama to be so confident about the upcoming races.
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