Electoral Math - Obama vs. Clinton

[MagsDem]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/

BO supporters, tell me which states BO is going to win that Kerry did not in order to win this election. For Clinton I would say FL and AR, possibly TN. Tell me how you get to 270 needed for BO.

And let's leave flames out of it, if possible.

[MagsDem]

1. LOL - apparently BO supporters have NO IDEA how he wins

[slick8790]

8. Perhaps you should wait for more than 4 minutes. n/t

[rodeodance]

20. You folks are slowing up--as most swarm onto a thread to diss it pronto.

[quantass]

74. Same old shtick....different day...gets tiring.

[cali]

9. Wow. Cognitive Dissonance, thy name is MagsDem

You ask that people refrain from flaming and you immediately start flaming.

[Forkboy]

31. LOL...you ask people to leave the flames out then start flaming on the first post.

Do you do kid's parties also? :rofl:

[cali]

46. Quite the trick, isn't it?

I think it's a DU first.

[Forkboy]

56. Surprised Mags didn't pull a muscle.

[tekisui]

2. Many possible: VA, WV, CO, IA, OH, NM maybe even MO.

And still possible FL.

[Blondiegrrl]

98. I'd take WV out of that equation.

Seriously. I'm a West Virginian. This state is full of elderly, rural white people who are conservative Democrats. They even have their own term: Republicrats. Ain't no way West Virginia will go for Obama.

The rest of the states you mentioned, I agree. :)

[sandnsea]

3. IA, NM, OH, VA, NC, SC, GA, MS, LA, AR

With crossover appeal, especially with Jim Webb on the ticket, and an energized minority vote, that's how. Tell me how Hillary is going to keep from losing completely since she has NO crossover appeal, has completely alienated the black vote, and can't fight McCain on Iraq or foreign policy since she basically agrees with him.

[jackson_dem]

14. SC, GA, MS, LA

:wtf;

[cali]

16. Agreed.

That makes no sense to me at all.

[jackson_dem]

21. They think Obama will cause every black person to turn out and flip those states

Axlerod himself has made this argument. It makes no sense. First, look at turnout for Democratic primaries. Black turnout has risen about as much as turnout for everyone else has. Even if Obama raises it in the general he would need 99.9% turnout to flip those states and that isn't happening. Then there is Obama's weakness among white Democrats in the South, which may more than offset his gains among blacks. In Alabama, for instance, Obama won over 80% of the black vote but only 22% of the white vote.

[MagsDem]

36. They are so out of touch with reality is utterly stunning

[jackson_dem]

44. Look at post 19

If you apply the general's demographics to the SC primary Obama's 28 point win over Hill would have been cut to about 6 and his 37 point win over Edwards would become about 8. Then these folks claim with a straight face that race doesn't matter in voting. :eyes: I think many of them are unaware that the general's demographics are far different than that for Democratic primaries, especially in the South.

[Blondiegrrl]

99. "Let's leave the flames out, if possible."

Disregard your own advice often? No wonder you're a Hillary supporter!

[woolldog]

23. I think those states

are very much in play, with an energized democratic electorate and depressed republican turnout.

Take a look at the 2004 election in those states:

In Louisiana only about 300,000 votes out of roughly 2 million separated Kerry and Bush.

In Georgia about 600,000 votes out of roughly 3.2 million votes separated Kerry and Bush.

In South Carolina 270,00 votes out of 1.6 million votes separated Kerry and Bush

In Mississippi about 220,000 votes out of 1.1 million votes separated Karry and Bush

Alabama is definitely not in play, whoever wins the nomination.

[MagsDem]

57. No, sorry

Kerry lost GA by 16%
Kerry lost LA by 15%
Kerry lost SC by 17%
Kerry lost MS by 20%

You are kidding yourself. Big time.

[woolldog]

78. 1,000,000

Georgians voted in the democratic primary.

In the most recent poll I saw Obama trails McCain by 8 in Georgia. With depressed Republican turnout and a surge in democratic turnout consistent with what we saw in the primaries, it's in play.

[MagsDem]

79. LMAO -- it's so not in play its not even being polled

[woolldog]

82. I saw a poll as of

February. So you're wrong. McCain 48 Obama 40.

You HRC supporters are so negative. Damn it's depressing. Change your slogan to "no we can't."

[BadgerLaw2010]

58. There is some weird belief that whites don't vote monolithic and opposite of blacks in the South.

We already get massive black votes in those states. It's not enough.

[sandnsea]

89. I have white family in the south

for Obama. McCain is not an appealing candidate at all. Between an energized minority, youth who are not racist at all, and elders who want change, he can win some states in the south. He can sure make the Repubs spend a bunch of money there making it easier to flip some of those closer states, if nothing else.

[BadgerLaw2010]

90. You lose these states by 15-20 as it is. Why is Obama actually going to *win* one of them?

Making the range of loss even 10-15, and that's having him do better than Kerry, and he still gets zero electoral votes.

[MagsDem]

50. Obama will turn rethugs into Democrats

When he sprinkles the magic fairy dust, right?

[DearAbby]

66. Or Obama may carry many Independent voters.

Most Democrats will still vote for Obama regardless how you feel right now, It will be the new registered voters and the Independents that will swing this election.

It also a possibility that some Republicans, who are just as sick as we are of the NEOCONS, will this one time vote Democratic. Or they may out of protest and nothing better, sit this one out.

Feel that? That is change in the air. Refreshing change. Go with the flow. Vote for a Democrat! I will :)

[cali]

4. New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia

and possibly Ohio. I suggest you look at more recent electoral maps. RCP has them up. Iowa has 7 EVs. CO has 9 and NM has 5. And they happen to add up to 21. Added to Kerry's 252 that give you 273- and that's without Ohio or Virginia.

[MadBadger]

5. IA, NM, NV, OH, VA, CO

[thesubstanceofdreams]

6. NV, NM, IA and CO are VERY likely

OH and VA quite possible.

On the other hand, Clinton winning TN and FL is a pipedream.

[slick8790]

7. Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and possibly Virginia n/t

[John Q. Citizen]

87. Obama could take Montana as well.

[stop the bleeding]

10. I think this is a better map,

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

I think when you look at the colors vs the record numbers as far as DEM turnout so far, either O or H could fair very well in November.

On edit:

I think this map shows that people are over red and blue, we're a purple nation.

[cali]

11. Hill doesn't stand a chance in FL. against McCain

not a chance.

[cali]

12. LOL!! Looks like the OP has fled. n/t

[Recursion]

13. IA, NM, MS, OH, LA, IN, VA, WV, GA, and MO

and KS if he taps Sebelius for Veep

[jackson_dem]

19. Why do some Obamites think he can win MS and GA?

I know the theory but you guys do realize that cuts both ways in the general. It isn't the same as the Democratic primaries in those states. Let's put it this way, if the demographics for the general were the case for the SC Democratic primary the result would have looked something like Obama 38, Hillary 32, Edwards 30 instead of Obama 55, Hillary 27, Edwards 18.

[Recursion]

28. WJC won GA, and nearly won MS

It's doable

[jackson_dem]

34. Where was WJC from? Chicago, Illinois?

WJC won those states for the same reason Carter did. Notice what Humphrey, McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, and Kerry all have in common? The only Democrats to win since 1960 are southerners. Too bad. We had Edwards but now we have a guy from Chicago and another from New York.

[MagsDem]

38. Sorry, you live in the clouds

[goodgd_yall]

29. I don't think any of the deep southern states are going Democratic this year.

[aasleka]

33. wrong! Obama will win a few.

MCcain is damaged goods, those states that Huckabee performed well in are a good indication of how John will do in November. Obama will take NC, VA, SC and Georgia, the GOP are uninterested in McCain and will not show up meanwhile Democrats will overwhelm polling places.

[jackson_dem]

37. NC and VA are completely different than SC and GA

SC and GA will not turn blue unless it winds up being a 49 state landslide. VA is a possibility, especially with Warner or Webb on the ticket. NC will be tougher (since Edwards is not going to be the nominee) but we would have a shot at winning it but if we win NC we will win big anyway so NC wouldn't have much significance.

[Recursion]

67. Warner is the great "could have been"

It's funny that only a year ago the two presumptive candidates were Warner and Allen.

[aasleka]

84. Edwards never even carried the primary here, (no offense John)

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/NCSBE/VR/VR%20Stats/other/party.htm


NC has been gaining Democrats and losing Republicans, all those folks who believed that their vote never counted just might show up this year judging from the swell of people coming out in other states.

Obama will take some southern states, forget everything you used to know and take another look.

[MagsDem]

51. Did you click thru to any states on the map?

Apparently not. If you had you would see that every county is red. Very red in fact. You might get IA, but that is it. Oh man, you guys are so naive.

[BadgerLaw2010]

60. You guys are out of your minds. Prepare to be massively disappointed.

[jackson_dem]

15. Then there are states Gore won that Obama will lose

Namely Florida and Michigan (Kerry won it too) if he, as expected, disenfranchises them.

[cali]

17. Sorry, I don't see Obama losing MI

not with the economy as bad as it is, and with McCain's positions. Furthermore, the seating of the delegates is not going to be an issue.

[jackson_dem]

26. If disenfranchising of MI isn't an issue then he should win Michigan

Even Kerry won it and things are more favorable to Democrats now. If it is an issue how many Democrats who were stripped of their voice will simply stay home, or leave the presidential line blank, on election day? It likely would be enough to swing the state to the rethugs.

[Hawaii Hiker]

24. I disagree, I cannot see either HRC or Obama losing MI

Wayne County (i think that's the name), goes like 80% for the Democrat typically, & there are couple other strong Democratic areas to, I highly doubt that MI would go red......

[jackson_dem]

27. Kerry won 51-48 and Gore won 51-46

There are very Democratic parts of the state but there are also very rethug parts. Michigan gets lost in the Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio hype but it is a vital swing state that has only three less electoral votes than Michigan and four less than PA.

[MadBadger]

30. The economic conditions though make it a good Democratic state I think

McCain's straight talk express blew a tire in Michigan. His "brutal honesty" about them not getting their jobs back there will fall flat yet again in the general.

[BadgerLaw2010]

63. Michigan is not a safe state by any means.

[MadBadger]

25. He wont lose Michigan

McCain's straight talk express will fail miserably there.

[woolldog]

18. states obama can win:

Iowa, Kansas, Virginia, Georgia, Nevada, Colorado, (some say Mississippi and Louisiana), Missouri, and New Mexico

[MagsDem]

48. Maybe IA

I will grant you he COULD win IA. No way in hell he will win a single southern state. And McCain looks good for the southwest states because he is from that area, similarly to the way Clinton took TN, AR, and GA when he won.

[cali]

54. Baloney. If Richardson was his VP, he'd have a lock on NM

Even without Richardson he stands a good chance of it. There's a very popular dem running for Senate there, Tom Udall. VA is also a really strong possibility with another very popular dem running for the Senate. Both states have dem governors. Same with CO which has been trending purple. You really need to inform yourself about the trends and elections in the various states.

[MagsDem]

68. You really need to look at the demographics of those states

Oh, but I know -- we aren't allowed to mention that. Shhhhh!!!

Please don't tell me about "trends" and elections in various states. I eat breath and live politics. CO saw Bush win by 5%. And there are about 3 blue counties in the entire state.

[cali]

75. I know the demographic of those states

and I'm right way, way more often than you, dear. You seem to be consuming a lot of empty calories. Clueless.

[MagsDem]

76. You sure don't see to.... but let's look at the data we have

http://hominidviews.com/?p=1325

[texas_indy]

22. WOW,where can I get this Crystal Ball which everyone is using to predict the future???

The election is still many months away and other things still have to be done before then.

I'm sure Obama knows what he needs to do. After all he has done very well in defeating the vaunted Clinton machine, hasn't he!


Obama will won the required number of states he need to become President, and anything above that will be icing on them cake.


Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[MagsDem]

41. The media has beat the Clinton "machine" not Obama

[cali]

70. you have nothing but excuses. The media was only part of it

most of it is that she ran a historically awful campaign, and he ran a damned good one. She's politically tone deaf. She could weill have been taking advice from the likes of you. Get used to it, Mags, he out strategized her every step of the way. She doesn't deserve the nomination. She blew it.

[sundancekid]

32. repeating ALL of Kerry wins, we need 3 out 4 of CO, IO, NM, NV

and this obviously also assumes that we don't get Ohio or Florida

I AM SEEING MY EYES TURN BLUE

[MagsDem]

40. And every damn one of those will go McCain

[woolldog]

43. What exactly do you base that on.

Polls are showing him competitive or winning all those states. That's not defninitive of course and opinions can and do change, but it's better than basing an opinion on absolutely nothing....which is what you're doing.

[cali]

62. It's based on industrial strength Obama hate

nothing more, nothing less.

[MagsDem]

71. Oh links please -- I gotta see this

[woolldog]

85. okay, if you insist...

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/obama-vs-mccain-state-by-state/

[woolldog]

88. Oh and one more thing.

Like I've done, I would like you to support your statements that he won't win those states with some evidence please, instead of the sweeping, baseless guesswork that you're engaging in.

[cali]

59. bwahahaha. The great Mags dresses up and plays phony oracle

All those states have been trending bluer. All have dem govs. All have popular dems running for open Senate seats. You really don't know jackshit if you think it's impossible that Obama can win in those states. You're simply fueled by mindless hate and bitterness.

[MagsDem]

35. Dream on -- all of you

I just wanted to assure myself that you were as out of touch with reality as it appeared.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

39. Says the person who claims Clinton would win TN and FL

Enough said.

[MagsDem]

42. I am very confident she would win FL and AR

Less, so about TN, but I think it's possible. As I said in my original post.

[slick8790]

45. She's trailing McLame by almost double digits there.

Florida is a lost cause for democrats. You're delusional.

[jackson_dem]

49. Which poll are you looking at?

The ones I have seen have us competitive there with Hillary slightly more competitive than Obama in Florida. She also usually does better than him in Ohio and Pennsylvania too.

[MadBadger]

53. Last poll in Florida I saw had Obama losing by 10, and Hillary losing by 9.

[slick8790]

55. I haven't seen many, honestly.

But I was referring to the one discussed here http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/28/713124.aspx in the second paragraph.

I don't dispute that Obama does worse there, but I think right now Florida is a lost cause for Democrats this years. We're competitive in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, no matter who the nominee is. It's just a matter of how much of a gap we have to make up by November. Florida, sadly, I've lost confidence in. A bunch of crazies in a state known for voting irregularities just ain't good for us.

[woolldog]

61. No democrat wins FL

this year. It's just not in the cards.

[ecdab]

52. "And let's leave flames out of it, if possible. " says MagsDem, LOL

nt

[cali]

65. Your gotta laugh at someone that fucking out of touch

she's a trip.

[MagsDem]

69. You're the ONE person I am really going to enjoy

laughing my ass off at after November. Truly.

[cali]

73. I'm enjoying laughing my ass off at you right now

and I'll be doing it next week and in November as well. It's soo much fun. And you deserve every snicker- and it's not just me laughing at you. Lots of folks here are. In fact, most of DU.

[MagsDem]

77. Don't be any money on it

http://hominidviews.com/?p=1325

[cali]

64. LOL

says the queen of Cognitive Dissonance. No one here is more out of touch than thee, dearie.

[ecdab]

91. It will be a hard enough road to travel down

in November to defeat the Republican machine - but we will do it with hard work and passion. It's time to start leaving people that just want to sulk, bitch, drag us down, and help the opposition with their apathy and negativity by the curb until such time as they figure out what four more years of Republican leadership in the White House really means. The OP seems to have made a cognitive choice that they will try and drag us all down if they can not have exactly what they want. That's a shame.

[Blondiegrrl]

100. Congratulations. How does it feel to be the biggest asshole on DU?

You start a thread indicating you want honest, open debate. Then you come in and insult and belittle every single person who supports Sen. Obama.

Classy.

[From The Left]

47. The Real Issue for Hillary Is

She MUST win 65% of TX and OH to catch up to Obama and that ain't going to happen. Nuff said.

[Faygo Kid]

72. Bingo. Let's look at Tuesday. (Aside: MagsDem says "leave flames out of it"??)

Let's see what happens in the general election once Obama clinches the nomination, shall we?

[democrat2thecore]

81. I agree - expect a suspension of the Clinton campaign on Wednesday

I think unless Clinton wins both Ohio AND Texas, she will suspend her campaign. It will be mathematically impossible for her to win the nomination. Pay no attention to the rah rah speeches, if both are not won by Clinton on Tuesday - she's out. By the way, don't expect a withdrawal but a 'suspension' as they hope for a scandal. I hate to say that they would actually hope for that, but I honestly think that for Bill and Hillary Clinton it's all about them - damn the party.

[Faygo Kid]

83. Yep. This should already be over, but we'll wait it out. I just hope he wins both.

That would absolutely end it. If he wins one, I fear she will try to hang on, and do incalculable damage to the party. But, the superdelegates will peel off like crazy under that scenario.

If he wins both, she will "suspend" on Wednesday.

[jefferson_dem]

80. Is it really that much harder to type "Obama" than it is to type "BO"?

"Leave the flames out of it." Uh-huh...

[Danger Mouse]

86. Impossible! You love to flame far too much.

[rodeodance]

94. POT MEET KETTLE

[JCMach1]

92. Now Obama supporters, redo the math with Condi Rice, or Colin Powell on the ticket

:( as McCain's Veep

[Yurovsky]

93. I don't see either happening...

Powell's wife doesn't want any part of it, and Rice is headed to the private sector to cash in.

I think McCain will tap a governor from a state he MUST carry (like Charlie Crist R-FL, who'd been kissing ass with religious fervor of late).

[JCMach1]

95. We will see, he has a particuliarly difficult task

will post an article as a separate discussion of this....

You will find that discussion here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4842970

[Yurovsky]

97. Thnx for the link*

nm

[mattclearing]

96. You have to give him VA, which is purple-blue at this point. CO, OH, TN, LA, + FL are on the table.

His appeal to independents is the only thing that will compete with McCain's like appeal to independents. Hillary has zero appeal to independents...she'll basically cede every battleground state.