How does Hillary win the nomination?

[ButterflyBlood]

I'm not asking for vague statements like "no matter what the odds I have faith in Hillary that she can do it." I'm asking how she mathematically does it.

By all measures Obama leads in total delegates by a little over 100. Let's call it an even 100. Hillary simply can not make that up in the remaining primaries. She still has a slight lead in Ohio but Obama's closing and it's unlikely her lead in delegates will be much more than 7-10. Obama has to be considered at least a slight favorite in Texas now, and even if he doesn't win the popular vote, he'll almost certainly win more delegates, due to the apportionment of state senate districts and the caucus for at-large delegates. Rhode Island and Vermont will likely cancel each other out. Obama almost certainly wins more delegates in Texas than Hillary does in Ohio.

After that there's Mississippi and Wyoming, in both Obama is overwhelmingly favored. They're small, but don't underestimate Obama's ability to pull big delegate leads out of small states (See Idaho and Hawaii). Then Pennsylvania, where Hillary is favored, but her lead is rapidly shrinking and she'll be lucky to pull a small double digit delegate lead like 10 much less a massive one.

The only big state after that is North Carolina, where Obama is strongly favored and leads in all recent polls. Hillary has strong states in Kentucky and West Virginia, but so does Obama in Oregon, South Dakota and Montana. Hillary is probably favored in Indiana but not by much. Puerto Rico is impossible to predict but it's NOT winner take all and the apportionment means neither candidate will get a huge lead in delegates. Put simply, Hillary's lucky to break even from here on out.

So let's assume she does. She then needs to take a lead through superdelegates. The problem?



There's 794 superdelegates. Edwards' 12 pledged delegates are basically superdelegates now too, so that equals 806 total. Hillary has 255, Obama has 198. That's 353 undeclared ones. And furthermore, not all of those are decided yet, many are "add-ons" elected by the state Democratic committee or at the state convention. Obama will almost certainly will almost all elected at state conventions due to his massive support in primaries and a pro-Obama convention will no doubt elect a pro-Obama delegate. Hillary's lucky to break even in these. But to pull ahead, she needs to win 227 of those superdelegates. That's over 64% of the remaining superdelegate total. That's significantly higher than the current percentage she has of declared superdelegates and the graph shows that the trend isn't on her side.

So how does she do it? I'm just not seeing it.

[Yael]

1. I believe that she will be mathematically eliminated on Tuesday

[ClassWarrior]

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[ClassWarrior]

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[ClassWarrior]

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[ClassWarrior]

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[ClassWarrior]

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[housewolf]

2. You're not alone...

I've read several other analyses this week that have reached that same conclusion.

Guess we'll know more after Tuesday...

[ButterflyBlood]

3. Hillary's going to have pull off something BIG to justify staying in after Tuesday

A few narrow victories aren't going to do it.

[NashVegas]

4. Hillary Can Do Whatever She Freaking Wants. Why Do Obamites Squirm So Badly At the Thought?

Of Hillary Clinton remaining in the race through the convention - the way so many other Democrats (and Republicans) have previously done?

[ButterflyBlood]

5. Because we need a united front against McCain as soon as possible

We need our nominee preparing for the general rather than just ripping each other to shreds all the way to the convention while McCain coasts in.

[ClassWarrior]

6. Because we're embarassed for her. It's hard to watch a good person...

...self destruct.

NGU.

[Zachstar]

19. Because that will almost Insure a republican win.

Against Clinton OR Obama.

This needs to end NOW!!.. They have their candidate and he is getting free time while this crap continues!!

[high density]

7. The supposed anti-Clinton/pro-Obama media is helping her

with their desire to keep the horse race going for ratings. Look at that MSNBC debate on Tuesday; their best ratings ever, beating the NBC broadcast network in ratings.

[FogerRox]

9. It was over super tuesday

Its Obama vs McCain.

2 weeks ago I used to think that Hillary would block Obama from 2025, but now it looks like she might not block Obama from 2025.

[Timefortruth]

12. She isn't in it for the Democratic nomination

at this point? Maybe she is trying to do as much damage to Obama as she can to improve her chances against McCain in four years?

[spotbird]

24. That's it,

since she isn't running for the nomination for herself in '08, she wants to have a shot in four years.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

13. By Getting Like 2025 Delegates Or Whatever. Duh.

[spotbird]

14. How? It's impossible at this point.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

15. If It Were Impossible, She Wouldn't Be In The Race. n/t

[spotbird]

20. It is impossible, but she is still in the race.

So I don't understand what you mean.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

22. It's Not Impossible, Which Is Why She's Still In The Race.

[spotbird]

21. It is impossible, but she is still in the race.

So I don't understand what you mean.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

23. It's Not Impossible, Which Is Why She's Still In The Race.

[AZBlue]

30. If it's not impossible, show the math.

Like in school, show your work.

[ButterflyBlood]

27. Give a scenario in which that occurs n/t

[From The Left]

16. By running in 2016

After Barack completes two terms.

[JTFrog]

17. By trying to get the Supreme Court to decide for us again. n/t

[Zachstar]

18. Thanks for the great topic explaining why Clinton needs to exit now rather than face more crap later

This is beyond silly! EVEN if she got a 20 percent margin on the next primary she has to extremely well in additional states where Obama has the ability to gain hude crowds and has alot of support from young voters.

I do not want another Month of this Bull! I hope the voters give Obama a good lead again so this will be OVER! I do have hope Clinton will exit gracefully rather than forcing the supers to make it apparent that this is over.

Move on to 2012 Clinton Supporters!

[BeyondGeography]

25. By getting others to steal it for her

And, being bereft of principle, she doesn't even realize it wouldn't be worth having under those circumstances.

[Dinger]

29. Right Here:

He'd be great for Obama too, IF Obama is the nominee.