A bit of delegate math - Obama will emerge from Tuesday very strong

[thesubstanceofdreams]

He leads by between 150-160 in pledged delegates and by over in 100 in total delegates.

TX will be close. Because of the caucuses and the delegate allocation by district, he stands to win the delegate count even if Hillary wins the primary by a narrow margin. Conservatively, Obama wins the delegate count by 5.

OH will also be close. For the sake of the argument, let's assume Hillary wins the primary by 5-10% and takes 10 delegates over Obama (around 7% of the total. Keep in mind that delegate lead is usually less than popular vote lead). Again this is very conservative from an Obama viewpoint.

RI is leaning Hillary but not by huge margins. It allocates only 21 delegates, so Hillary might pick 3 over Obama at most.

Vermont is Obama land, and unlike the other states the statewide winner gets bonus delegates. Obama will easily pick 10 out of 15 delegates, which means 5 over Hillary.

So under these quite conservative estimates, the best Hillary can do is pick 3 more delegates than Obama on Tuesday. Which means she will still trail by over 150 pledged delegates and 100 total delegates, but which fewer states left to vote, which means she would need even bigger margin wins in those states. And those states favor Obama overall (Hillary has a dwindling lead in the biggest one, PA, and Obama leads in the second biggest, NC).

The bottom line is that even if Hillary gets narrow wins in OH and TX on Tuesday (which is the best case scenario even according to her supporters), and even if those wins allow her to get some momentum back, the math is still stacked against her big time. Her only chance is, still, that all polls are wrong and she gets a win by double digits in TX and OH.

If you disagree with my math, please let me know and let's have a quality discussion. But I'll try to keep this thread objective.

[Spider Jerusalem]

1. No argument with your math...

but the biggest state left after Tuesday is Pennsylvania, not North Carolina.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

2. Sorry, you're of course right.

I'll edit it.

[TexasObserver]

3. Obama will definitely extend his delegate lead Tuesday.

And that will extend his advance with superdelegates. Hillary and her inner circle can stand in a circle and blow smoke up each other's ass, but the superdelegates know better. She will continue to lose Superdelegates to Obama, and he will continue to pick up uncommitteds.

[thevoiceofreason]

8. Y'know, I was thinking I was this nervous also before Va. and Md.

Remember the polls that showed her closing things up some at the last minute? I do.

And with Texas, we truly will not know the outcome of the 67 caucus-based delegates for some time since those numbers really can, and do, change over time.

[Vinca]

4. Even if she wins Texas, he could end up with more delegates out of it.

She has to win Texas and Ohio by 20 points to have any real impact. If the campaign goes on, he'll keep racking up more delegates. Most of the states that come after Tuesday trend Obama. Pennsylvania, of course, is now more Hillary, but that's the way it's been everywhere. He'll tighten it up or actually win it.

[Demagitator]

5. The -- game is fixed -- so the math is wrong n/t

[yourguide]

6. This is a great little toy

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

just punch in your percentages and presto your delegate count.

My math is based on

Clinton beating obama 52/48 in ohio
Obama beating clinton 53/47 in texas
Obama beating clinton 60/40 in vermont
Clinton beating Obama 53/47 in RI

And I have a net delegate gain for Obama of +3, not including the skew for the caucus

[tekisui]

10. Thanks for that link. That is really cool.

[Perky]

7. I think you are right on Ohio but off in Texas for a couple of reasons.

First of all the primary favors Obama slighly because of ethncity and political geography issues. on a couple of counts: White men favor Obams substantially... That is going to help offset Hillary's advatage among older hispanics in Senat Dsitricts where there are heavier Hispanic population but fewer delegates eavailable. In Both Urban and younger Senate Districts, Obama is likely to get the majority vote and this the the extra delgate becaus it is doubtul that anyone is going to get 61%. In those instances the delegates split evenly and if there is an odd number od delegates, the last one goes to the winner.

Second is the enthusiasm gap regarding the caucues. My perception is that Obama supporters are younger and much more motivated than demographically older Hillary supporters. That is a big factor. PLus Obama;s campaigh has mastered the cuacus system and no ho to GOTV.

[totodeinhere]

9. But will Clinton concede?

Your analysis is correct, but I am afraid that even a narrow victory in just one state such as R. I. or Ohio will enable the Clinton camp to somehow claim victory regardless of the fact that the delegate math is stacked against them. They might think that's enough to carry on. And if that's the case then we will still be in for a long bitter fight which can only help the Republicans. The question is "is that what the Clinton camp wants?" We shall soon see.