Belo: Obama leads by 12% among early voters ...

[Alhena]

Belo shows that Obama leads among early voters 56%-44%. These early voters were polled from 2/24 to 3/1 so there are several days' results which presumably means they got a fairly large number of early voters to poll.

http://www.beloblog.com/KVUE_Blogs/politicaljunkie/2008/03/belo-tracking-poll-still-all-t.html

Now, if these numbers are even close to accurate, they are very interesting in light of Hillary's exit polls on the early voters:

Already, an estimated 600,000 Texans have cast ballots in 254 counties in the early voting period, which ended Friday; Clinton campaign organizer Matt Clemons says an estimated 30 percent of them were Latino, nearly 60 percent were women, and two-thirds were age 50 or older, all good signs for Clinton.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/03/01/MNG3VBN6J.DTL&type=politics

If the early voters in Texas are largely old women and Hispanics and Obama is still doing well in early voting, that has to speak well for his chances.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. So, unless I'm missing something, if those numbers hold and they're tied now, Obama wins TX by 12?

That would be huge.

[Alhena]

4. I doubt he really leads by 12% among early voters, but I'd much rather

have the polls show me 12 points up than down among people who have already voted.

[Drunken Irishman]

Well even if he's up 5-7 points in early voting, it would still be a big win.

[Alhena]

6. Agree, just try not to get too excited over polls, especially after New Hampshire

and California.

[woolldog]

16. In California

the absentee ballots killed Obama.

[ORDem]

30. ... because they were cast before his SC win. After that he was

rising in the CA polls.

[FedoraLV]

33. CA Absentee Ballots Are Still Being Counted

See Vote-By-Mail totals, here:
<http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/election_2008/unproc_ballots/6feb233.pdf>

-FedoraLV

[quantass]

7. More accurately, he'd be considered the front-runner to win on Tuesday.

[goclark]

8. If Women Seniors are voting for Hillary, they probably

voted early.

Seniors usually do so they won't be standing in long line.

Heart be still ~ please let Obama win. :loveya:

[Buck Laser]

23. The line I stood in was an hour long at noon on Friday...

And it was longer toward the end of the day.

[FrenchieCat]

41. I'm praying too!

[woolldog]

2. How do you know belo got the demographics right?

[FrenchieCat]

3. Interesting.

How do they get these numbers?

[Alhena]

5. They just ask "have you already voted?" I suppose

[mucifer]

9. It doesn't seem ethical to release results before the actual primary

and caucus. Don't they always hold off on giving results 'til the polls close on election day? I'm confused. I'm an Obama person but I think this isn't good.

[adoraz]

11. these aren't official numbers

just a small survey

[NJSecularist]

10. If he wins the early vote by 12%, he will do alot better than tying Hillary in Texas

He will win the state by 5+ points.

Which is why I don't believe this, and think that the sample margin in these early voting polls is so small that it doesn't mean much. Likely the early vote is split 50-50.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. With all due respect, NJSecularist, after Wisconsin, I don't trust you.

:D

[NJSecularist]

14. LOL

Well, I don't blame you. :)

I was completely off. I was off by about 20 points. :)

[babylonsister]

19. OK. Tell me your predictions for WI. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Had Clinton winning by something like 5 points.

[NJSecularist]

26. +2 for Clinton

So I was exactly 21 points off.

[adoraz]

13. well actually they had 2,000 early voters for the week

so not a small sample.

however, I do think the early voting is a lot closer than they are saying. I think they under sampled latinos for early voting.

[Bullet1987]

15. By all sources...Obama seems to be doing very well

with early voters.

[Dems Will Win]

17. The high Latino and Women voters make sense if the young Obama voters are voting early

Which they are - So yeah, 60% women but how many were YOUNG WOMEN for Obama, and 30% Latino but how many were YOUNG LATINOS for Obama?

This poll is only saying that 13% of the whole poll were under 30, but doesn't break out for the early voters...

[Alhena]

18. Rasmussen has Obama leading by 6% among early voters ...

though they include those who are "abolutely certain" they will vote in that figure, which makes it fairly worthless. Still, it provides some confirmation that Obama is doing well among early voters.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/texas_democratic_presidential_primary

[Colobo]

25. Gobama!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

20. Good omem, but what does a vampire know?

[thevoiceofreason]

22. Actually, probably 1.4 million folks voted early.

As of Thursday, the top 15 counties in Texas had registered 711,000 early votes. These coounties (the top 15 out of 254) comprise about 5/8 of the total state vote normally. So, expanding that number to reflect the whole state, you get 1,137,000 voters through Thursday. Now, the word had gotten out by thhen that then numbers were wacked out, and that election day would be a zoo, so Friday was the heaviest day of early voting all over. In fact, in my county (Harris), the vote total for the first ten days of early voting (about 149 thousand) swelled another 20% (33 thousand), giving us a total early vote of about 182,000. Assuming the rest of the state swelled 20% on the last day, that would mean the final early vote numbers in Texas will be closer to 1,365,000. If this holds up, and the split "polled" is indeed 56-44%, Hillary is in very deep trouble.

[Alhena]

24. Zogby has Hillary leading by 6% among early voters ...

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1457

So who knows what's going on with the early voting. Actually, if Hillary's exit poll demographics were correct, I'd be satisfied with Obama only being down 6% if the early voters were largely older women and hispanics.

[Johnny__Motown]

31. I think you read that wrong... go check that link again please

Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle Poll: Obama Builds Lead Over Clinton in Texas, But Dem Race Too Close To Call in Ohio

Texas - Democrats


Clinton
42%

Obama
48%


Unless I am missing something it is Obama by 6, not Clinton.

[loveangelc]

35. early voting not overall.

[Johnny__Motown]

37. K got it thanks, she has a 6% lead in early voting he has a 6% lead overall,

I think Someone is just covering their asses so they can point to something after tuesday and say... Look, there it is... we told you so. No matter how things turn out.

[thewiseguy]

27. Belo is starting to show a positive trend for Obama

I am not sure if anyone noticed this but Clinton was up in the last Belo poll that was released two days ago. Now Obama is up. Texas does not look good for Hillary.

[Alhena]

28. ARG has them tied among early voters in Texas ...

though Hillary has a big lead among early voters in Ohio. Looks like she's going to win there.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[thevoiceofreason]

29. ARG = Asswipes Regurgitating Goo

They haven't been close. They are wrong with Texas.

[shiestyelbow]

32. This is a good sign

Hillary really hit the radio waves today, or it seemed like it anyway.

[loveangelc]

34. this would be wonderful it it were true.

[BringBigDogBack]

36. Wonderful.

[meow mix]

38. wow!

:o

[papau]

39. 200000 AA in Houston/etc from NO, 200000 GOP emails to vote for Obama as McCain has it locked up - &

it is only 56/44- amazing.

[Scurrilous]

40. Kick

:kick: