Some states will stay blue regardless if it's Clinton or Obama

[Hawaii Hiker]

There's been some talk here about CA, NJ, & a couple other states turning Republican, but I find that difficult to believe...States like CA, NJ, NY, MA, HI, IL, (and some others) will almost certainly stay blue...

Look at results from Super Tuesday, even in states where Clinton or Obama finished second in the Democratic primary, the SECOND place democrat in some cases had more votes than ALL the Republican candiates....

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080205

[onehandle]

1. All states that were Blue last time will stay Blue. Some Red states will turn Blue.

Just enough to do the job.

[Independent-Voter]

2. Not if HRC is your nominee. I just don't see her gaining states anywhere.

[onehandle]

5. Ohio and or Florida is the game.

Either candidate will win at least one of them.

[RaleighNCDUer]

8. That's the DLC gameplan.

Make everything hinge on one or two key states.

It's worked so well for us in the past.

[onehandle]

11. Florida and Ohio were key long before the DLC existed.

And Governor Dean works 50 states.

[mohc]

6. I actually think

That she would win OH and AR. It would be a skin-of-your-teeth victory, but a victory none the less.

[Hawaii Hiker]

9. Actually, I think Hillary would win Arkansas easily

But if the Democrat can win Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada (or some combination of these), then we don't need to worry about Ohio & Florida...Though I think Ohio is a good possibility, but Florida I'm less optimistic on....

[mohc]

13. I meant

That the electoral college victory would be "skin-of-your-teeth", not her victory in Arkansas. Adding in AR and OH to the 252 electoral college votes from last time would be a 278-260 victory, which would make basically every state a must win. Clinton could very well carry Arkansas by a comfortable margin.

[bunnies]

10. NH wont. Luckily we dont really count though. nt

[Exilednight]

12. Every state counts. Gore lost by something like 4 electorals. The DLC just doesn't get it.

[displacedtexan]

3. We can't ignore the "potentially unstable electorate" this year

Obama vs. McCain And Red-Blue Instability

Obama appears to be headed to the nomination with the support of many of the same voters who backed Bradley in 2000 and Dean in 2004. McCain was also elected with a different base of support than the one that made Bush the Republican nominee in 2000. According to exit polls, Romney always outperformed McCain among Republicans who were either "enthusiastic" or "satisfied" with the Bush administration, while Huckabee cleaned up on the white evangelical / born again vote.

(snip)

If primary voters were willing to choose different sorts of candidates than the ones both parties have recently nominated, this sort of fluidity and uncertainty comes with the territory. It also means that we should take nothing for granted, either or positive or negative, in this election. Assuming he is the nominee, maybe Obama can win Kansas and Virginia, and maybe he can lose Oregon and Massachusetts.

Who knows how this dynamic could change our traditional blue state/ red state understanding.

My biggest fear: Republicans will use this dynamic to cheat. Again. Still.

Hope I'm wrong.

[rox63]

4. I am absolutely positive that MA will go heavily for Obama in November if he's the Dem nominee

Even though it went for Hillary in the primary. I know my bluer-than-blue state very well. They've had it with Republicans (post-Mittens), and will rally around whoever the Dem nominee is.

[boston bean]

15. I'm not absolutely positive, but McCain will find support here that may make MA a swing state. nt

[BenDavid]

7. if obama believes he can run a 50 state campaign then he's

lost from the start. There is no damn way that utah, wyoming, north dakota, south dakota, nebraska, oklahoma, and some others will turn blue....

Obama might end up like kerry did when it came to Pa.....you all remember that one in 04 right. Kerry was on teh verge of losing Pa. and guess who he asked to come and campaign and endorse him and help him carry Pa.? At the time Kerry was either behind by 2 or tied with bush in pa......The big dawg, Bill Clinton gave his first public appearance after heart surgery to come to philadelphia on 10/25 to endorse....well, a week later Kerry carried Pa..

The following states will be in play for 08....Arkansas....Tenn......Nevada...New Mexico.. West Virgina.....Ohio....Florida.....States HRC can pick up....all she needs is win the blue states Gore did in 2000 and add states with 10 plus electoral votes and there my friends you have the election....On election night all Brian Williams needs to tell us is " We project that Hillary Clinton takes OHIO....or if they say...We project Hillary Clinton to take Florida....there you have the election of the new president Hillary Rodham Clinton

[Raine]

14. CA will stay blue

no matter who the Democratic nominee is.