Clinton Obama tied in Final TX Survey USA Poll

[kennetha]

Hillary has pulled back even in Texas according to Survey USA. Tomorrow will be an interesting day. If Clinton takes Texas, even by a little, blows him out in Ohio and takes RI, I predict that the air will go completely out of the Obama balloon.

Here's a story about the poll:

http://cbs11tv.com/local/campaign.2008.polling.2.667812.html"> Clinton And Obama Tied In Texas

[Hawkeye-X]

1. After the Keith Factor, plus the early voting

heavily favor Obama, I think Obama has won this decisively by about 15 or 16%.

Hawkeye-X

[loveangelc]

6. How do you know early voting favors Obama?

I thought someone said most of the early voting was older women and a huge part of it was latinos?

[Hawkeye-X]

8. You don't know that for sure..

Plus, Democrats has voted already by a margin of 5:1 to Republicans in the early voting.

We'll have to check the exit polls that will be released shortly tomorrow, I'm sure.

And the latinos is not exactly fond of Hillary, despite calling it her 'base'.

[rug]

9. The Keith Factor is under 3.

Obama - 49.0
Clinton - 48.4
Undecided/
Other - 2.6

[anonymous171]

2. He'll do better actually.

Obama's the candidate who does the best when in underdog mode.

[susankh4]

3. Shocking!

:wow: His lead is eroding.... before our eyes!

[SoxFan]

11. Hillaryland

Hillary blows a twenty point lead in less than two weeks, but it is Obama whose lead is "eroding"?

Welcome to the other side of the looking glass.

[high density]

4. So Obama wins 11 straight and has never been behind in pledged delegates

Then if he loses one or two tomorrow by a bit, that's the end of him? So in other words, Clinton is the only one that can win on Tuesday and none of Obama's earlier wins matter. Yeah, this is a broken record.

[beachmom]

5. Uh huh. He'll still lead pledged delegates. Even if your rosy scenario

occurs, what are you going to do about the fact that Obama leads the delegate count? Just pretend it doesn't exist?

[NJSecularist]

7. They are sampling only 17% black support

That seems a bit low, but they've been right before.

[HooptieWagon]

10. Sorry to pop your balloon

But if Obama is within 10% or so in both TX and OH, he likely will gather more delegates than hillary. Obama has greater strength in the districts that award proportionally more delegates. And in OH, the districts where hillary is favored have only four delegates. Hillary will need 63% of the votes there to avoid a 2-2 split of delegates.

In summary, Hillary needs decisive wins (double digit) in TX and OH just to avoid Obama gathering more delegates, and she needs blowouts ( 25+% mov)to make any significant dent in Obama's pledged delegate lead. It's just not gonna happen for her.

[C_U_L8R]

12. Not so fast. The Obama campaign is not a balloon.

The numbers just don't work for a Hillary win
unless it's a decisive blow-out in her favor.
But nice try positioning a Hillary loss as victory.
It just doesn't work that way. Sorry : - )

[totodeinhere]

13. What makes you think she will blow him away in Ohio?

All indications are for a close race there. I seriously doubt if there will be a blowout.

[thevoiceofreason]

14. Undersamples black turnout

Also, they surveyed 840 people -- in Texas.

This is a big place, folks.

If they did it population-wise, that means they would have spoken to about 140 people in the Houston area.

We voted 180,000 early in Houston. Total vote likely will be 550,000 democratic in Houston. Their sample is about .03%. Too small to be statistically meaningful. Plus, can someone tell me if Survey USA has a mechanism to sample cell-only families? Do they sample independents and cross-overs? (Their site is so slow I gave up waiting.)

Also, if they are sampling 17% black, would they have only hit 25 blacks in Houston? That is way too low.

[Renew Deal]

15. And oversampling latino

Blacks were 21% in 2004. Hispanics weer 24%. They are saying 17% black and 32% latino. I don't buy it.

[MadBadger]

17. Neither do I.

[NJSecularist]

18. You can't compare 2004 turnout to 2008 turnout

Different time, different place, different circumstances.

SurveyUSA was the only polling firm to correctly predict record Hispanic turnout in California. While they may be wrong, they do have a very good track record.

[Renew Deal]

19. Of course you can compare

Check other primaries like Wisconsin, or the Potomacs. The demographics are comparable. And wile Survey USA has been pertty good, they have underestimated Obama's support most of the time.

[Perky]

22. In their last poll it was 21% of the voters; It's now 17% that is a big statistical difference.

Today

Race
White Black Hispanic Other
50% 18% 64% 25%
46% 79% 33% 70%
3% 2% 1% 0%
1% 1% 2% 4%
100% 100% 100% 100%
48% 17% 32% 4%

Eight Days ago
Race
White Black Hispanic Other
56% 13% 52% 42%
39% 85% 39% 51%
4% 1% 2% 7%
2% 1% 8% 0%
100% 100% 100% 100%
47% 21% 28% 4%

[Alhena]

16. Yeah, and I'm sure he'll give Hillary the 135 delegates he'll still lead her by as well

[Perky]

20. Caution is needed here

If you look at these numbers there is a substantial undersampling of the AA population. Every poll that I have seen that is either pro-Obama or pro-Clinton shows AA split at about 22% this one has it at 17% and this poll has Obama pulling 79% of the AA vote....when the historical AA turnout from exit polls show him getting on average about 85% in southern states.

[Mass]

21. Not very different from the previous one