New SUSA Texas - Clinton on the comeback trail

[NewHampster]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d7698664-137f-46f0-ba92-32aea473d72e&c=117

Do-Si-Do In Texas Democratic Primary: Clinton and Obama End-Up Even -- 36 hours till votes are counted in the Texas Democratic Primary, contest is a Jump Ball, with Obama's momentum now slowed, and possibly stalled, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-Primary poll conducted for KTRK-TV Houston, KTVT-TV Dallas, and KRLD-AM radio Dallas. Two weeks ago, Clinton led by 5 points. Last week, Obama led by 4 points. Now, Obama leads by 6/10ths of 1 point, effectively tied, and completely consistent with either candidate winning tomorrow by a narrow margin. Clinton's inroads in the final week come among voters age 35 to 49, where she is even today, after trailing by 18 points last week. In East Texas, which includes Houston, Clinton had trailed by 18, now trails by 5. This is offset in Central TX, which includes Austin, where Clinton led last week immediately after being endorsed by the University of Texas newspaper, but now trails by 19. Among voters who attend religious services regularly: tied. Among Pro-Life voters: tied. Among Pro-Choice voters: tied. Among voters focused on the Economy: tied. Obama remains far ahead among men. Clinton remains far ahead among women. Among Latino voters, Clinton finishes 2:1 ahead of Obama, better than she polled 1 week ago, but comparable to where she polled 2 weeks ago.

[anonymous171]

1. It says they're tied.

[NewHampster]

4. But she is back from being down in the last poll

The momentum is for Hill. she will win 3 of 4 tomorrow go on to win PA and your guy will drop out before May.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Unless she wins Texas by a bigger margin, NH.

If she loses Texas by .6 points, it's over for her. Do you not understand this? She can't go on without winning by a decisive margin.

Even if Clinton wins Texas by 3 points, it would be like scoring a touch down late in the 4th quarter of a 28-point rout.

[book_worm]

11. of course she was over 20 points ahead.

[book_worm]

13. We will find out tomorrow. But if it's basically a tie in TX and she wins Ohio by less than 10

then it seems that Obama will still have the delegate edge.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. There is no "seems" about it.

The only way Clinton would take the lead in delegates if she won with 60% of the vote in both states.

Ain't happening, which means Clinton is T-O-A-S-T.

:bounce:

[dorktv]

44. no it means that this will continue. Yay! Brokered Convention!

[susankh4]

49. He'll have the edge, allright

but will he have 2025?

I don't think so.

It's not over.... and it won't be for quite a while I think.

[NewHampster]

20. There is only one poll that matters

[skipos]

17. Explain to me how she is going to lead in delegates after

OH, TX, VT, RI, WY, MS and PA. 10% wins in all of these states wouldn't even do it.
Please explain your math to me.

[Hawkeye-X]

2. far, far too late for Hillary. Remember California and its early voting?

Now the reverse is doing it for Obama, not Hillary.

Hawkeye-X

[tekisui]

31. THey can't really claim a comeback or a victory after dropping so far

so fast in the polls. Over a million early voters rode in on the Obama wave.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Sweet! Clinton can't afford a tie in Texas.

Looks like it's over Tuesday for her.

THANK GOD!

:bounce:

[Coexist]

5. a tie in Texas is a loss for Clinton

[Lucinda]

6. Yup. Excellent news. :)

:hi: K&R

[ingac70]

8. The Freeps musta got the word out in Texas...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4857328&mesg_id=4857328

[Dogmudgeon]

9. The FIX is in! Hillary has done the UNFORGIVABLE!

She has gone and conducted a strong ground campaign, in defiance of the pundits and the party mugwumps!

The nerve!

Why doesn't she just drop out NOW and spare the Democrat Party any further embarrassment? We promise we won't call her a liar any more. Honest. But the idea of having a tough, protracted race is more than we can handle!

How can she do this to us?

--p!

[dorktv]

45. *snickers*

[anamandujano]

10. Big MO stubs a toe.

[Dinger]

12. Woo Hoo! (nt)

[catagory5]

18. As the great George Takai says "oh my"

Filtering / Caveats: 2,000 state of Texas adults were interviewed 03/01/08 and 03/02/08. Of them, 1,766 were registered to vote. Of them, 840 told SurveyUSA they had already voted, or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on election day. Of those who have already voted, Clinton leads 50% to 48%. For Obama to carry the state's popular vote (convention delegates are not awarded as a straight function of the popular vote), Obama needs to run at least 3 points stronger than Clinton among those who vote at the precinct tomorrow.

Now who was saying a few days ago Obama had early voting ny 10 percent?????

Where are they?

[thevoiceofreason]

15. Nope - black vote is way undersampled

[book_worm]

16. This poll has Obama with 79% of Black vote. My guess is he will get close to 90

and that will give him another point or two overall.

[godai]

19. How many Texans have already voted, last week?

Obama apparently was leading last week, when a lot of Texans voted early. But, whatever the polls show, I can wait until tomorrow to find out the results.

[Avalux]

21. Comeback trail? LOL! She had a 20 point lead 2 weeks ago. n/t

[ChairmanAgnostic]

23. and close to 30 two months ago.

now, there's a comeback. The rodney dangerfield of campaigns. insulting, lost, and laden with cholesterol filled fat globules.

[JimGinPA]

22. She's Coming Back From A 20 Point Lead?

:rofl:

[Maribelle]

24. go Hillary!

we love you

[GarbagemanLB]

25. Tie in texas and barely win in Ohio Hillary! It won't help you at all in the delegate race!

[NeedleCast]

26. Hillary Supporters?

One of you please explain to me how even a small margin of victory for Clinton can be considered a "win?" Despite her "in it to win it" speeches she blew a lead that was in the high teens or low 20's a month ago. It's been interesting to watch the ever-evoloving theories of what constitutes Hillary "winning" in Texas. A single digit margin of victry doesn't do Hillary much good. All it shows to me is that Hillary managed to narrowly hang on to a state she was winning by a wide margin. Anything other than 15% Hillary margin of victory is pretty much a win for Obama.

[NewHampster]

28. She didn't blow any lead - The polls don't matter only votes matter

nt

[CaliforniaDemocrat]

27. comeback kid!

[rodeodance]

34. its the COMEBACK GAL

[kikiek]

29. Good news for us in TX it sounds like. Hillary is coming back!

[Little Star]

30. Buyers remorse is setting in! The trance is not working so well!

GO HILLARY!

[NewHampster]

32. the trance has worn off

[Straight Shooter]

33. "Trance," indeed. Some people don't want to be hypnotized by nothingness.

Featured toon this month from The Black Commentator, of all places :D

[NewHampster]

41. LOL

[Obamanaut]

35. Considering it was supposed to be all over in early Feb., I guess

HRC staging a 'comeback' now is interesting.

[rodeodance]

36. k

[Maribelle]

37. Hillary will be making Texas Toast out of Obama

[Qanisqineq]

38. .

kick

[libbygurl]

39. Comeback girl! Woo-hoo!

:kick:

[judaspriestess]

40. Go HIllary

:hi:

[PseudoIntellect]

42. So.... a 20-point comeback for Obama doesn't count, because only one poll actually matters.

But a 4 point comeback by Hillary does count. Okay.

[David__77]

43. Obama will do better than this poll.

Black vote is underweighted here. Early voting patterns would seem to confirm this. I think he'll win the popular vote by a few points and easily win the most delegates in Texas. But, we'll all know tomorrow and we can move on from there.

[Hoof Hearted]

46. Woooo Hooooo! THREE CHEERS FOR THE ~LADY~

[dana_b]

47. Does anyone know if these polls

are done online? by phone? and if by phone, landline AND cells? Just a question I've been curious about.

[usregimechange]

48. Obama's lead corresponds with start of early voting.