In Defense of Zogby and Talking of SUSA

[Bullet1987]

I keep hearing the same thing repeated on this board everyday, but haven't really thought to make a thread on it. It's the idea that SUSA has been right this entire primary season...the "gold standard" as it's being called and that Zogby has been the most wrong. I'm sorry, but that's just not true and I'm one of the biggest poll skepdics on this site (at least vocally I believe).

Super Tuesday, February 5, changed everyone's perception. And yes, Zogby was dead wrong in almost every state...but everyone points to how wrong they got California. I personally think that when thousands of Indie votes aren't counted, that tends to change the results...but that's history now. SUSA on the other hand appeared the most reliable and they've had a damn good track record since Feb.5. Zogby has been nonexistant for a few weeks now and appears to be back. But people never look at pre-Super Tuesday. Back when Zogby was the most accurate and SUSA seemed to be all over the place. It's as if folks have either selective memory, or they're just following the herd on what's being said about SUSA that just isn't accurate.

Polling companies, no matter who they are, will get some right and some wrong. It's just the nature of the profession (outside of maybe ARG which has never been right all primary season). No polling company is ALWAYS right. And that's a common pitfall poll junkies fall into when they put all their eggs and expectations in one basket. People should keep a certain level of skepticism when it involves polls because polls are simply estimates...they're not hard numbers or facts.

[SteppingRazor]

1. It's a good point. That's why I like poll aggregators...

like realclearpolitics.com, which sum up all the polls and then find an average, which is likely to be more accurate than any one poll.

[Thurston Howell III]

2. Thank you. Zogby said at one time that primaries are very hard.

[Bullet1987]

4. That's because state demographics are extremely hard to

accurately poll. Each state is like it's own unique enviroment. Some states are like a crossroads of the different regions of the US. Ohio is a little bit like that.

[MadBadger]

3. SUSA had Hillary winning Missouri by 13. We consider them the gold standard for CA and CA only.

[VolcanoJen]

5. Didn't Zogby specifically point out his error in getting California so wrong?

I'm pretty sure he said his Latin-American turnout model was fatally flawed in that he underestimated it, and overestimated African-American turnout in California.

And he says his models since have been weighted and adjusted.

There was a thread on here a few weeks ago showing that Zogby still has the best polling of the primary cycle... damn, I wish I could find it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Zo(m)by Is Garbage, Ergo:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_of_pollsters_rating_the_i.php

[MadBadger]

8. Well here's to hoping they pull a Nevada.

[Dogmudgeon]

7. Nervous people turn to divination

It's why many people are driven to astrology, numerology, etc. When you're nervous about the future, you want a peek. Modern polls serve a similar purpose. Many of the partisans here, from both camps, are so anxious that they live on the polls. Add in the traditional Democratic fear of anxiety and aversion to conflict, and this relatively genteel contest has become nerve-wracking torture for many people.

I have found that polls are lousy at determining absolute numbers but excellent at detecting trends. Today has been a very nervous day for Team Obama because Hillary picked up a couple of points -- but reversals are bound to happen. Tomorrow night is what counts, but unless Obama pulls off four KOs, Hillary will be proclaimed the winner. And there is still enough primary left to drive this to a dead heat at the convention, and that's the Plan.

It's what the media want -- a dead heat, lots of conflict and anxiety, and a good reason to raise advertising rates as high as possible.

Our pain is their gain.

--p!

[Bullet1987]

10. I agree...I guess I never looked at it that way

[elixir]

9. Agreed, although Zogby has favored a particular candidate this primary and it's effecting his polls.

[Bullet1987]

11. I don't buy that...