Desperate times call for desperate math

[yourguide]

From Politico, Plouffe: It's still over


http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Plouffe_Its_still_over.html



In a statement emailed to reporters, and reiterated on a conference call just now, Obama's campaign Manager, David Plouffe, says:

It is clear that narrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve their nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins – and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago - they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.

"They were sitting on enormous leads as recently as two weeks ago," he said on the call, dismissing the notion of a Clinton "comeback."

"They keep moving the goal posts, but at some point you run out of field," he said.

His full memo after the jump.

March 3, 2008





TO: Interested Parties

From: David Plouffe, Campaign Manager, Obama for America

RE: The Real Meaning of March 4th



Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn: “After March 4th, over 3000 delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states. Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived ‘momentum.’”



Clinton aide Guy Cecil: "We think that at the end of the day on March 4 we will be within 25 delegates.”



Howard Wolfson: “I Think We Will Be Ahead In The Delegate Race After Texas And Ohio.”



New York Times: “Clinton advisers have said Mrs. Clinton must win the Texas and Ohio primaries by at least 10 percentage points if she has any hope of catching up with Mr. Obama in the delegate count, particularly because he has shown momentum recently at picking up support from elected officials who count as superdelegates.”

-------------------------------------------

By their own clear definition of where they expected and believed they needed to be after Ohio and Texas, the Clinton campaign will fall terribly short on March 4th. The Obama pledged delegate lead stands at 162. The question for the Clinton campaign if they do not significantly erode that lead on Tuesday is what plausible path they have to even up the pledged delegates in the remaining contests.

There are 611 pledged delegates left after March 4th’s contests. They would need to win at least 62% of all remaining pledged delegates to get back to even. And while they have often talked about Pennsylvania – where public polls show their lead deteriorating rapidly – the Wyoming caucuses on March 8th and Mississippi primary or March 11th could potentially result in more pledged delegates netted to the winner than on March 4th.

So it is clear that narrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve their nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins – and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago - they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.

While the Clintons gamely continue to try to move the goal posts, at some point there has to be a reckoning. It is a very simple question – what is their path to secure the nomination? No amount of spin can change the math. We look forward to their tortured answers on Wednesday morning.

The Clinton campaign has insisted that this is a race about delegates. And we agree. The tale of March 4th is not who wins what states but where the delegate battle stands after all the delegate yield for all four of these contests have been allocated.

[mohc]

1. There are so many different targets for this "math"

At this point my guess is the Clinton campaign's focus is not on reaching 2024 delegates, but preventing Obama from reaching 2024 delegates with some number of superdelegate uncommitted. So long as Clinton stays competitive, even if she loses every state on 3/4, the only way Obama crosses the line is if the superdelegate count starts to pile up for him. So Clinton's real focus is not on winning any particular state or gaining in pledged delegates necessarily, but making a case to the superdelegates to hold off on endorsing Obama. If Clinton can make a plausible argument for the remaining superdelegates to back her, they will at the very least remain on the sidelines giving her more time to convince them with wins later on. The superdelegates will almost certainly have to pick a side sometime before the convention, but the later they decide the better for Clinton. If Obama does not score a knockout victory tomorrow, the best sign to look at for where things are headed will be the endorsement rate for the superdelegates. Who wins which states, what the net effect is on the pledged delegate counts, and polling for later states are all important, but what is really important is how those factors impact the superdelegates. Clinton will either need a standstill in the endorsement rate or to actually start heavily leading in new endorsements to have a chance.

[TeamJordan23]

2. If the Superdelegates go against the pledged delegates, it will rip apart the party. nm

[mohc]

4. Almost certainly so

But in which case does Clinton have a better chance of winning the presidency this election:

1) Conceding the nomination and backing Obama to help him beat McCain.
2) Fighting to the last delegate and squeaking out a victory for the nomination and leading a fractured party against McCain

Even though her chances are pretty slim in scenario 2, they are better than the 0% chance she has in scenario 1.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

3. People keep saying this

The situation with the Superdelegates has changed A LOT since Super Tuesday. And if Bill Richardson's Sunday announcement that he'll back whoever is leading in delegates is any indication, it's only going to get worse for Hillary.