Obama People Sound Like Clintonites on New Hampshire Eve

[alcibiades_mystery]

Cell phones! Only polling Dems! Ground game!

Sometimes, the polls are just right. Volcano Jen had a great post that talked about the difference they've made in Ohio, even if Obama loses the popular vote in the state. I think that's right. Big picture. Here's what's going to happen tomorrow:

Ohio goes to Clinton by 8-10%.
Texas goes to Clinton by 4-5%.
Rhode Island goes to Clinton by 10-15%.
Vermont goes to Obama by 10%.

Will it be a wash? No. Clinton will pick up some speed, and at least look viable again. The Big State argument will be revived and repeated. The Clinton backers will feel vindicated.

But the race will go on. We're in the 6th inning here.

Lots left to do.

[TwilightGardener]

1. Obama will lose. He's clearly lost his momentum.

[malik flavors]

2. Funny that you bring up New hampshire in one sentence...

and then state that sometimes the polls are just right in the next.

It'd be pretty crazy if this really was a New Hampshire Pt. 2 and Obama actually won Ohio and Texas.

[skipos]

3. I think your numbers will be right.

Anyone who pays attention to the delegate math... will feel that those victories were not nearly enough.
Anyone (Mark Penn) who thinks that Obama needs 15 straight wins in order to prove that most Dems want him to be the nominee... will see it as a massive victory for Hillary that will lead her to the nomination.

[lapfog_1]

4. Sooo... what is the end result in terms of DELEGATES?

even if your numbers are right. Remember to take into account that the districts that favor Obama in Texas are more delegate rich and remember the Texas caucus.

Hillary +15, Hillary +5, Hillary +1, Obama +5?

And then what? How does she make up ground after that?

Your right, she might "load the bases" tomorrow, only to not score any runs. And Obama still leads by 5 and his team has the top of the line up coming to bat in the 7th.

[bicentennial_baby]

5. I'm not counting on *anything* tomorrow.

At all.

[Adelante]

8. Ditto nt

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

6. So you're saying the polls don't count.

What about the ones showing Obama ahead in TX and OH? I guess they don't count.

[nomorewhopper]

7. vermont will go to obama by around 25%

tx, oh are probably too close for anybody to call at the moment.

if i was a gambling man, i'd put money on obama winning a squeaker in tx and losing by a few % in ohio

[anonymous171]

9. The rest are smaller states, Obama will kick her ass.

[JackORoses]

10. does making a post like this serve to build your confidence?

I hate to break it to you, but posting it on DU in no way makes it real.

This isn't some Magic-Wish Board, you know.

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. Huh?

[AX10]

12. Texas is going to be a nail-biter.

[Hoof Hearted]

13. How long before someone posts breathlessly about VOTER IRREGULARITIES REPORTED in X county!

Yeah, it's gonna be a hoot.