Plouffe: It's still over

[Coexist]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Plouffe_Its_still_over.html

In a statement emailed to reporters, and reiterated on a conference call just now, Obama's campaign Manager, David Plouffe, says:

It is clear that narrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve their nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins – and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago - they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.

"They were sitting on enormous leads as recently as two weeks ago," he said on the call, dismissing the notion of a Clinton "comeback."

"They keep moving the goal posts, but at some point you run out of field," he said.

[catgirl]

1. K & R! He says it like it is

[Rosa Luxemburg]

2. The Clinton campaign must be spending a lot of money today

getting their dirty messages out!

[grantcart]

7. there is a counter theory that the reason they are continuing is that

they are bringing in a lot $ 35 million Feb and spending a little $ 5 million in ad buys

so that she can accumulate money in a warchest for future political battles

[Rosa Luxemburg]

13. if there are any future battles?

[Coexist]

15. and I like that Obama groundgame gears up in these primaries.

like a dry run before the big opening.

Its good for us as a party.

[JimGinPA]

3. He's Right

On each point.

[grantcart]

4. 644 is Obama's magic number

[Window]

5. You tell 'em David!

:kick:

[Mooney]

6. "They keep moving the goal posts, but at some point you run out of field"

Ouch.

[gateley]

11. Great line. nt

[cottonseed]

8. This is the reality.

Obama is gaining by double digits in all the states he's campaigning in. This will continue from here on out. The Clinton campaign is lost. Even Richardson came out and has told the Clinton campaign to get it together, come to grips with reality, and give it up come Wednesday morning.

[rinsd]

9. David Plouffe is wrong. Hillary hasn't held a double digit lead in TX (except for 1 outlier poll)

And that was a Rasmussen poll that appeared to be an outlier (6 days later they showed a 3 point Hillary lead when previously they had a 16 pt one). Also that poll was from Feb 14th.

[JackORoses]

12. David Plouffe is not wrong. It's still over.

A political genius like you should be able to see that.

That Trend which I told you about months ago has come back to bite you in the ass, huh?

[debatepro]

14. 7 polls with double digit leads

Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided
Rasmussen 2/14/08 577 LV 54 38 9
IVR Polls 1/30-31/08 534 LV C48 B38 U10
IVR Polls 1/10/08 567 LV C46 B28 U10
IVR Polls 12/11/07 510 LV C51 B17 U6
IVR Polls 11/7-8/07 510 LV C51 B17 U8
IVR Polls 7/9/07 596 LV C42 B20 U17
IVR Polls 6/4/07 513 LV C40 B15 U19

And basically every poll before the month of febuary.

[Coexist]

16. wow - nice work!

[chknltl]

10. I think the poll problems stem from:

Cell Phones. The youngsters are turning out in numbers unheard of in prior recent elections. (Hurray for the youth of America!!!! :patriot:) VERY few of these younger voters have landlines. This means little to no polling data on them. This primary cycle they have been turning out for Senator Obama. This to me explains why the polls have been under-computing Senator Obama's numbers. I predict that Senator Obama will take Texas AND Ohio.

[Coexist]

18. I have brought this up in the past too,

but someone recently said that some firms take this into account.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

17. OMG Her Opponent's Campaign Manager Is Saying It's Over! Stop The Presses! This Is SeRies!!!11111

[Coexist]

19. now that wasn't nice.

I think he is referring to the constant lowering of the bar, and the math.

And it really, pretty much is, barring a huge blunder.

[Coexist]

20. worth a second read..

[HeraldSquare212]

21. It can be over now, or we can waste six weeks so it can be over later.