Uh Oh While everyone was getting their underwear in a twist about OH/TX

[grantcart]

Rhode Island is now in play.

Like every other state that held a huge lead for Senator Clinton that lead is gone and Rhode Island may now be in play.

Just two weeks ago Senator Clinton had a +15 lead. In the latest poll it is down to 5%

2/20 C + 12
2/23 C + 15
2/27 C + 9
3/2 C + 5


http://www.pollster.com/08-RI-Dem-Pres-Primary.php. The polls also show a curiously high undecided rate. Late deciders

have been breaking for Obama 60/40 in many other campaigns.



Here are some excerpts on the rally Obama had with 10,000 supporters (5,000 were in an overflow area - no idea how many people

gave up after not getting into either the rally or the overflow. People had been waiting 6 hours to see Obama

(Sen Clinton had 2,000 at the same facility a few days earlier.)




http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/01/obamas-rhode-island-jaunt/


PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Senator Barack Obama arrived about an hour late at Rhode Island College in Providence, first addressing an overflow crowd of several thousand who had waited for hours in the cold rain and mud but were turned away from the packed college gymnasium. He then spoke for nearly an hour to about 5,000 more people in the gym as he tried to woo a state where the Clinton campaign has been counting on a victory.

He was introduced by Representative Patrick Kennedy, one of only a few Democratic leaders in Rhode Island to endorse Mr. Obama instead of Mrs. Clinton. Despite waiting for hours – people started lining up outside the gym around 7:30 a.m., college officials said, and Mr. Obama spoke at 3 p.m. — the crowd was heady with anticipation. During his speech, in a room so hot and crowded that emergency officials hovered with stretchers — the crowd cheered raucously after almost every sentence.

Mr. Obama first urged his audience to bring others to the polls for Tuesday’s primary, acknowledging that the race in Rhode Island is tight. Virtually every poll here in recent weeks has given Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton a lead, though some have suggested it is narrow enough for Mr. Obama to catch up. He is hoping for high turnout, particularly by drawing thousands of new, young, unaffiliated voters who tend to favor him over Mrs. Clinton.




NS
Last poll in Vermont showed Obama holding a 25 point lead

[sniffa]

1. He's on the move in RI in a big way

If he loses, I think it'll be by a hair, and then we watch the delegates divvy up.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

15. He better be, since Hillary declared he must win all 4 primaries to keep his lead.

[SKKY]

20. Here we go. That "fuzzy math" stuff again...

[grantcart]

32. vanishing goal posts

[lapfog_1]

31. Pretty sure that win or lose by 5 points... it's a straight split

50/50 in delegates. RI will not help Hillary gain ground. Nor will it allow Obama to pull away.

Vermont, on the other hand, is a clear win for Obama and he will get more delegates there.

Texas will be a delegate win, though Hillary may win the primary vote.

Ohio is an unknown. But I think it will be a win for Hillary.

Overall on the night, neither will gain more than 5 to 10 on the other. Essentially a tie.

The problem is that there aren't enough states left for Hillary to stage more comebacks and tie the pledged delegate count before the convention.

So the only way she wins the nomination is if the Supers lean her way big time (overturn the will of the people) AND she gets the Florida and Michigan delegates seated.

Those moves will split the party. It must be prevented.

[thevoiceofreason]

2. Hadn't factored this one in.

Great news.

[TexasObserver]

3. That's why Obama went there. He could run the table tomorrow.

15-0 would be sweet.

[grantcart]

16. yeah and people were criticizing him about going there

I am not second guessing this guy again.

[TexasObserver]

23. He's run an flawless campaign, and demonstrated true leadership.

The organization he has put together really speaks to his skills. The mess that is the Clinton campaign is a testament to Hillary's absolute inability to even understand what the components of a good organization are.

Like you, I have concluded Obama goes up by 40+ delegates tomorrow.

[grantcart]

25. and 20 superdelegates on Wednesday

[TexasObserver]

26. Agreed. I expect him to be UP by 200 within a week.

[ingac70]

4. Good...

I'd love to see him sweep all four states tomorrow, then listen Hillary say they don't count.

[stellanoir]

5. Yeah they had a limited arena because the monster truck rally was at the

Convention Center

Priorities, priorities.

[Mme. Defarge]

6. Ahhhhhhhh, I was right!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3207975

[grantcart]

I don't think it was wise for them to put all of their eggs in RI

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4830347(pls read down the thread for more info)

[elizm]

7. I love it....while Hillary has been scaring up votes in Ohio with her slime tactics...

She's losing votes in RI. Guess her 'machine' missed that one as well.

[ContinentalOp]

8. OMG, I love that kid in the front

with the peace, love, barack & roll sign!

[Cha]

19. There was an individual pic of those two

BaracknRoll, Peace and Love kids the other day..I wish I'd saved it now.

[grantcart]

21. and those are the folks that waited 6 hours

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Kber]

37. Ok now.

I voted for Obama and really hope he pulls it out, but I think that's a bit harsh. (All right - way harsh.)

Hillary's been a darn good NY senator and has served her state interests honorably. Personally, I think she's better suited for the deliberative legislative role than an executive one.

[grantcart]

38. some of these guys its better to just ignore

[Recursion]

10. How did they fit 10,000 people into RI?

:hide:

[Kber]

39. Ha!

My company had an office in RI. Every time I went up there and was given directions, everything was described as "close to Providence". I thought it was rude to point out that, compared to the landscape in the midwest, EVERYTHING was close to Providence.

But I always enjoyed my visits - good people there.

[Botany]

11. Team Hillary

[grantcart]

12. MSNBC Now reporting that Rhode Island could be won by Obama

We beat them by 15 minutes

or are they reading DU??????

Chris Matthews asking panel about RI

[stop the bleeding]

13. Official STB predictions - OH

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4853616&mesg_id=4853764

she will lose RI, TX, and VT, she will barely win OH

[grantcart]

22. I think he will win Ohio - Missouri style - one thing that the polls

agree on is that a substantial majority of Ohio democrats (including Clinton supporters) think tha he will be the nominee. This will drive down her turn out - especially on a bad weather day. Also anyone who is weary of the campaign and wants it over will vote Obama - even if they personally support Clinton.

[stop the bleeding]

24. interesting line of reasoning, something else to look at is the fact he

has a 3 or 4 to 1 better audience turn out for his stump speeches that have taken place in the same venue. To me that speaks volumes, people don't drive out of their for that kind of thing.

[DJ13]

14. I hope Obama uses Lincoln Chaffee to his advantage

He's no longer a registered Republican (went independant after the GOP threw him under the bus in 06), and his endorsement of Obama a couple of weeks back should be utilized heavily, as he and his family are still popular there.

[grantcart]

17. More on RI endorsements

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/candidates-quietly-shore-up-ri-vermont-support/


In Rhode Island (21 pledged Democratic delegates), most of the political establishment is behind Hillary Rodham Clinton — with one big exception. Representative Patrick J. Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama at a Washington rally with his father, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts, and cousin Caroline Kennedy. Mr. Obama has been endorsed by Lincoln Chafee, the former Republican senator from Rhode Island.
Sheldon Whitehouse, senator of Rhode Island, and Representative James Langevin support Mrs. Clinton. (Sen. Jack Reed, a Democrat, is keeping mum.) Mrs. Clinton also has the backing of the state party chair, William J. Lynch.
His brother Patrick Lynch, the state attorney general, recently broke the family bond and endorsed Mr. Obama after being wooed by both campaigns, notes The Providence Journal:
Patrick Lynch acknowledged that it would be difficult to sway Rhode Island’s overwhelming support for Hillary Clinton. He said he hoped his endorsement would simply make people consider an alternative.
“I want to let people know you don’t have to go with the political tide,” he said. “You can stand up and change the direction the waves are going.”

Another X-factor for Mr. Obama in Rhode Island could be his personal connection to the state. Craig Robinson, Michelle Obama’s brother, holds a relatively prominent position in Providence as head coach of the Brown’s men’s basketball team, and he played a role in getting Patrick Lynch to support his brother-in-law. Mrs. Obama campaigned with him there this week.

[Divernan]

35. John F. Kennedy, Jr.,(RIP) graduated from Brown back in the 80's.

Another Kennedy link to Rhode Island.

[FogerRox]

18. I saw Obama in NH just beofre the primary, I drove up from NJ for the weekend

It was a great weekend, I recommend it. I wonder if McCain will lose like Goldwater in '64.

[grantcart]

30. except that some of those southern states look do-able now

[caseycoon]

27. K&R! WOWWWWWW! n/t

[Bucky]

28. I think the back row of that auditorium is actually in Connecticut

Do they still get to vote if they step around to use the water fountain and end up in another state?

[grantcart]

29. could be I know that the parking lot is in Mass. lol

[Scurrilous]

33. Good news!

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

34. yes kick it kick is kick

[grantcart]

36. kick before the polls close