Hillary Leading In Final TX Zogby Tracking Poll 47-44/Tied in Ohio 44-44

[MadBadger]

Developing...I'm listening to an mp3 from chron.com. All it says is that she is leading. It doesnt say the exact numbers, but just that she is leading within the MOE. He says Hillary is leading by 4 in early voting and by 3 in same day voting. He says that everything is tied in Ohio. Hillary is consolidating her Catholic support, while Obama is doing better in Cincinatti.

www.chron.com

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Ouch, not good for Obama at all.

I was holding out hope, but I think it's clear: He's collapsing big time. This means she had a very strong day today, since she was down 4 points. If this trends holds, Clinton could win both Texas and Ohio comfortably.

[GarbagemanLB]

2. ...

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Cha]

4. Are you laughing 'cause

you think his post is off base?

[GarbagemanLB]

8. I am laughing at his 'doom and gloom'. Hillary needs to win by huge margins in the remaining

states to even tie with pledged delegates. This thing is over unless she pulls out big wins in Ohio and Texas, which won't be happening.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. I didn't say Clinton would win the nomination.

However, this thing goes on another month now and I hate that idea.

I want it to end NOW.

[GarbagemanLB]

14. Agreed. I think if she loses either Texas or Ohio by ANY margin tomorrow the end is here.

[VolcanoJen]

28. Chill. Perspective.

Relax and wait, my Irish friend.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4861103

[Zachstar]

68. Then don't post bullshit saying that he is collapsing big time.

Let the clinton fools do that.

These polls are not very good this year. Even when obama was in good leads in these polls I said they are shit. As they are shit.

Here is the thing. If Clinton somehow wins those states lightly because she swiftboated Obama then betrayed the party then oh well!

The supers have watched Clinton turn the democratic party into a mockery. One where we let a political party in a another fucking COUNTRY twist our process. One where she suddenly thinks McCain has more experience than Obama's speech in 2002 (And for anyone that is clueless and in denial it fucking means she has put a delegate of another party ahead of her own) and thinks she can get away with such a betrayal. She will not. The supers are going to flock and stop this madness before we have to take another 2 months of bullshit.

This is it folks. Unless Clinton can pull a net gain of 50-100 delegates then this thing is going to the supers.

The sad thing about this is. If somehow voters allow themselves to be influenced by Clinton's swiftboating and fear mongering then Obama will have no choice but to start exposing Clinton for what she is. We as Obama supporters need to realize that what we are facing is a machine that if somehow is allowed to continue may not be able to be defeated by a popular nice guy movement. The Clinton Machine is one of the largest machines in politics and it has decided to eat one of it's own this time.

The problem is Obama has been on the defensive. He wants to be friends with Clinton, He thinks this nice guy stuff will be enough to cut through the swiftboating and other crap. From REPUBLICANS. He has refused to expose Clinton for what she really is and he is slightly paying the price for it in my view.

After this he needs to not do anything but go slightly into GE move for about a week to give the supers to flock. If they don't then he needs to make modified hope speeches. He has to retain that image of hope. But he must get rid of that nice guy deal. He needs to expose Clinton for what she is.

[Cha]

13. Good..'cause I can't

handle any doom and gloom right now. :rofl:

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Laugh all you want, but it's not looking good right now.

He won't get blown out, but the trend is with Hillary. She still has a huge uphill battle, but this means the race does not end Wednesday like many of us had hoped.

[JackORoses]

12. this doesn't mean anything. 2/3 of Texas has already voted.

Belo has polled the largest pool of early voters and they show Obama with a 12 point lead.

He'll do just fine tomorrow.

[Colobo]

15. Hillary will probably win 3 states tomorrow, Obama will win VT.

[Cha]

18. That sucks...

Delegates?

[Drunken Irishman]

19. It depends on how many delegates Obama gets out of Texas.

He could lose Texas by a slim margin and win more delegates.

[MadBadger]

24. Hopefully his Closing ad swayed some voters

Obama lost 2 points to undecided and she gained 1 point. I think that put her up a 1/2 point or so. I think he can still one if the black vote shows up for him, which I think they will. I think he can still do this.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

16. you can look back on this Hillary moment

because any momentum is driven by dirt.

[VolcanoJen]

29. So what if it doesn't end on Tuesday?

Her best case scenario is she leaves Junior Tuesday with a net +20 delegates, give or take, oh, 10.

She's down by about 160 going into Tuesday.

Big deal. Then it's on to Pennsylvania and we'll win there. Be patient, my friend. Patient.

[Drunken Irishman]

30. I just want it over.

I'm tired of her bullshit politics.

[MadBadger]

33. So do I. He just needs to win one of the two...just one.

[VolcanoJen]

34. Well, darlin', I wish it were over tomorrow, too.

But if wishes were horses, we'd all take a ride.

Where's that Fighting Irishman?? :-)

[Drunken Irishman]

41. He's out to lunch.

:D

[MadBadger]

32. I think if he loses 3 of 4, Obama needs to shift his strategy

deliver some major policy speeches first, and second, go after her on her experience. Dont just make this about experience, question what her experience is. She claims she has been tested, How so? I think even if he loes in Texas and Ohio, he will continue with a big delegate lead. And after MS and WY, PA is over a month away and he can turn PA into an Iowa or a NH. But still, all hese votes will be close. I dont see where she blows him out, so this nomination is still his to lose.

[thewiseguy]

44. Enough of major policy speeches!

What happened to the big rallies? What is he been doing since Saturday? Why did he all of a sudden changed his strategy and started having these town hall meetings?

What the hell is up with that?

Rally your freaking base Obama. I hope to god he has been working on his ground game for the past three days in Texas and Ohio. This seems very odd to me that all of a sudden he starts disappearing from the spotlight and at the same time he gets pounded by this negative news.

[MadBadger]

59. I do agree with that. He makes more news with his 20,000 people rallies

But at the same time, he doenst have major policy speeches really. Put this lack of substance charge bullshit to rest by getting very detailed in your plan, and getting some coverage for it.

[RBInMaine]

23. But this has OH much closer than others. Again, GOTV is key.

Remember, he was down 15-30 across these states a few weeks ago so in that sense has actually made up huge ground in states she was supposed to win in a cakewalk. Don't forget that. OH, TX, and RI have HUGE Clinton establishment machine dynamics at play. What has happened is that Hillary has gone bigtime negative, and Obama has been beaten up in the corporate media over the bullshit Rezco and NAFTA-Canada crap, all forming a kind of perfect storm to block his positive message in the endgame. It totally sucks, but that's what happened. Still, it's a matter of turnout dynamics and GOTV, so we'll see what happens. If it is close, he is still way ahead in delegates. So relax, work the phones, and see what happens.

[anamandujano]

27. What "the bullshit Rezco and NAFTA-Canada crap" show is that his positive message is malarky.

He says one thing and does another.

[VolcanoJen]

36. Whatever.

Poll Ohio and ask them about Rezco and the phony "CanadaGate" and they'd say "WTF are you talking about?"

Everyone needs to chill and wait it out. Tuesday's gonna be a looooooong night. :-)

[democrattotheend]

75. I think you're right, unfortunately

Zogby polls tend to be the most favorable to Obama, so if he is losing in the Zogby poll he's not probably not going to win. And you make a good point about the three day average...that makes me really nervous.

[yellowcanine]

76. "Collapsing big time" when he came back in both states from 20 down and is now within MOE in both?

I guess it all depends on your perspective. No polls even had him close in either state 3 weeks ago and now he is within the MOE and panic sets in? Doesn't make any sense at all - the trends are all his way and he will likely walk away from today with an increased lead in delegates, so what is the problem?

[kwenu]

3. Not sure how that is possible. Early votes aren't even tallied in TX until Election Day.

[loveangelc]

6. they can poll those who have already voted.

that said, i think zogby is garbaaaaaaage.

[tritsofme]

7. Just shows how utterly irrelevent Zogby has become.

Regardless of outcome, Hillary will perform better in OH than TX.

[kwenu]

9. Well. We'll know for sure very soon!!!!!!!

[Hoof Hearted]

11. Zogby is to poll as faux news is to news.

:bounce:

Good news for Hillary!

[mmonk]

17. Wierd. I thought she was supposed to have a bigger margin

in Ohio.

[thewiseguy]

20. Confusing

Sorry but this is very confusing. Who is leading among early voters? Zogby says one thing, Belo says another thing.

Their sample sizes are too small. Zogby mentioned a margin error of 8 points for the Houston area.

Obama was in Houston tonight.

And whats up with Ohio? Zogby says one thing and other polls say another thing.

[GarbagemanLB]

21. The majority of polls I've seen show Obama ahead by a comfortable margin in early votes.

[loveangelc]

22. which other ones besides the belo poll have hi up in early votes..?

[thewiseguy]

25. There are only two other polls that do show early voter numbers

SUSA which has Clinton leading Obama 50-48.

And this other poll that has Clinton leading by 12.

Then you have Belo which says Obama is leading by 12 but was losing that edge in the second week.

Zogby says Clinton leads Obama by 4 in early voters.

I hope that this is not a collapse by Obama.

Has he really had big rallies lately?

[Imagevision]

26. Considering what Hillary 's lead was in TX. and OH. Obama is doing splendid...!

[rodeodance]

79. ha hs the point is that BO is LOSING ground.--get it.

[donheld]

31. Has Zogby ever been right?

[MadBadger]

35. Nailed Nevada

[Renew Deal]

42. Yes

But he's also had some magnificent failures, like California.

[Renew Deal]

37. I found it

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1461

[Colobo]

38. Who knows what's gonna happen.

[Renew Deal]

40. I know Gravel won't get 1-2%

What is that about?

[Colobo]

39. Who knows what's gonna happen.

[Drunken Irishman]

43. Ok, after looking at those numbers, I'm not buying.

That's too dramatic of a shift in 24 hours for me to believe, especially when every other tracking poll has the shift only 1-2 points (not a 6 point shift like this poll suggests).

[Renew Deal]

45. Survey USA agrees that there's been a focus on Iraq and Terror in Texas.

But they don't detect much of a shift either. I think ground game will matter. Obama has always outperformed the polls. He really needs to this time.

[MadBadger]

46. She had to have had a huge day today.

[Drunken Irishman]

49. Yeah and I think that almost always proves to be an anomaly.

Daily numbers fluctuate up and down so dramatically that you can't really take it by face value and instead must look at the overall trend, which shows a very close race. We see this will the Gallup and Rasmussen polls all the time, where Clinton will be up one day by one or two points and down 4 to 5 the next.

[MadBadger]

50. 2/29 must have been a great day for Obama, and 3/3 a great one for Clinton

[Drunken Irishman]

52. Exactly, which shows these polls are pretty useless.

Since Obama had a big day and followed it up with a mediocre one and then another decent day (Sunday) and then again followed it up with a pretty mediocre one.

[MadBadger]

54. Its hard to deny though that the past couple days he has lost the news cycle

This Nafta thing, Rezko today, Hillary being on SNL, etc. I just hope that of those who saw his closing message, he is able to sway a few of them.

[Drunken Irishman]

57. I agree he lost the news cycle, but I don't think that will play a major role.

[MadBadger]

60. He's been on the defensive, and that doesnt help.

[Drunken Irishman]

63. Well we'll see, remember Wisconsin.

A lot of bad news leading up to that, with people questioning him and the voters rejected it.

[MadBadger]

66. Difference is he was always up by at least a little. Here is he down.

[Drunken Irishman]

67. It depends on what poll.

SurveyUSA and a couple others still have him up.

[MadBadger]

69. SUSA and Rasmussen still have him up, but both have it neck and neck.

[Drunken Irishman]

70. Most of the Wisconsin polls were within the MOE as well.

[MadBadger]

71. PPP had him up 13.

[Drunken Irishman]

80. Hence "most",

[MadBadger]

72. Like he did in Madison, Obama needs to run up the score heavily in Austin

That should help him a lot. Get major turnout there and win like 65-70 percent there

[thewiseguy]

47. Obama better works his ass off tomorrow in Texas

We need to end this thing in Texas. Focus on Texas, Obama.

[rodeodance]

48. "the last few days, Hillary now leads by four percent,"---yes, Excellant folks

How did she pull ahead? She clearly increased support among white men and Hispanic men, mostly based on her late campaign focusing on her fitness for military command. She also enjoys strong support from white and Hispanic women. One thing that could prove significant is that much of Obama’s recent advances in the Houston area seem to have dissipated.

“Among those in Texas who were just making up their minds in the last few days, Hillary now leads by four percent, which pretty much tells the story.”

[bigbrother05]

51. Polling doesn't do a good job of picking up the youth voters

The cell phone factor is huge with a major component of Obama's voters. The exit polling has the potential of showing us the trends, talks to actual voters directly, no phones needed. There has been much made of the way TX allocates the delegates, with more going to places with strong black representation than to Hispanic strongholds. That alone could give Obama a 5 delegate bump.

Have heard that East TX could swing the state. Michelle Obama was speaking in Tyler today. She was introduced by an old friend of ours from Texarkana, Molly Beth Malcolm. Molly is the former Chair of the TX Dem Party (also past Pres of the Women's Caucus) and is connected directly with East TX Dem activists since the '90s. If Molly has opted for Obama over Clinton, he is making inroads into her base and that is good news. If they could turnout black voters to build a majority for a pasty white guy in a local election, think what they are doing for Obama.

[dana_b]

56. youth vote

that's what i wondering about and asked about on another thread. These polls are phone polls? landline only? That could seriously mess with the true results.
On the other side, if they were online polls, maybe less internet saavy people wouldn't participate and that could also change the reults.

[skooooo]

53. Obama will win, if those are the numbers..

...cause he usually outperforms those polls. That's what happened last time. I predict Obama by 10% at least in both states!

[MadBadger]

55. He doesnt always outperform these polls. Dont rely on him to win because of that mindset

[skooooo]

58. thanks for your concern..

But my opinion stays. Time will tell!

[thewiseguy]

61. Cincinnati

Can someone tell me how can Zogby say Obama is doing well in Cincinnati while SUSA says he is trailing there by 19? That is just crazy.

[MadBadger]

62. Well, Zogby has it tied while SUSA has it a ten point Hillary lead.

So that explains for a lot of it.

[thewiseguy]

64. But that is crazy

How could they poll the same town and be this much off? One of these polls is full of shit.

Then we are suppose to believe that Obama's lead in Houston has vanished? I really do not get this.

[thoughtcrime1984]

65. One thing I have learned is

fuck the polls. They have been wrong, wrong, wrong most of the time. Remember New Hampshire? Or all the states Obama won by landslides that were projected to be MUCH closer? We won't know a DAMN thing until the votes start getting counted. All of this negative, fear, NOPE Hillary crap isn't going to save her. Let's count the freaking votes! There, I feel better.

[Bullet1987]

73. It's not surprising that Clinton has come back in the polls

Obama has been the punching bag of attacks from all sides for a few days now (Rezko, Canadian-NAFTA, 3am Fear ad). But like someone already stated, Obama supposedly is doing very well in the early voting. That hopefully gives him an edge.

[rodeodance]

81. how sad for him--press is actually starting to ask quesions. tsk tsk on the press.

[avrdream]

74. OH, crap.

Zogby is always wrong.

Someone change it before I wake up in the morning.

[robcon]

77. Zogby has it wrong... again.

Here's the polling from various sources, showing, once again that Zogby should get out of the business. Being wrong by 23+ points in NH and CA hasn't convinced him that he hasn't a shred of credibility left - he's again WAY out of the mainstream of pollsters (Zogby is the only one calling for Obama to win Ohio, and has the lowest polling for Clinton in Texas) At least he's a consistently biased pollster... his previous projections have also always overstated Obama's support, so we always know which way he skews his results.


OHIO
Clinton - Obama

ARG 56 42
Rasmussen 50 44
Suffolk 52 40
SurveyUSA 54 44
PPP (D) 51 42
Zogby 45 47
University of Cincinnati 51 42
Quinnipiac 49 44
ARG 51 44

http://www.pollster.com/08-OH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
--------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS
Clinton - Obama

ARG 50 47
Rasmussen 47 48
InsiderAdvantage 49 44
PPP (D) 50 44
SurveyUSA 48 49
Zogby 44 47
Public Strategies 46 45
ARG 47 47

http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[Medusa]

78. Within the MOE

:eyes:

[DemGa]

82. The Dem Base is mobilizing for Hillary-----NT