Too Close to Call: How Today's Primaries Resolve Nothing

[JCMach1]

Anything short of an absolute blowout in today's primary contests (and we know that's unlikely to happen either way) and we still won't have a nominee.

In fact, stalemate today will make it a race decided by the Superdelegates.

Hillary, Obama, and all the spinmeisters can examine it however they want, but that's the bottom-line.

In fact, it's getting close to the point that unless there is a UNITY TICKET the party will be extremely divided going into the convention.

So what now? The crossroads is here, but where do we go?

[angie_love]

1. basically we're fucked.

Last week Hillary said shes going to win both OH and TX, now if she just wins OH she stays in. We. Are. Fucked.

[JCMach1]

2. Hillary and Obama need to sit-down alone and really talk about this

Enough of the BS, check the egos and the flunkies at the door...

[cali]

3. Disagree. If Hillary loses either TX or OH today

party bigwigs will start publically calling for her to step down. That in itself will damage her badly. And SDs will increasingly endorse Obama. Party insiders do not want this going to the convention and they will do anything to prevent it. Dean and Richardson telegraphed that loud and clear. If her insider support collapses, she's done. I heard Kenneth Miller of Claremont McKenna College speaking at length about this on the BBC this morning. He says barring a political miracle, she's out.

[JCMach1]

6. I think it could be much more deeply conflicted than that...

I agree 100% if there is another Obama sweep there will be huge pressure on Hillary, no doubt!

However, I think something like the scenario below is the most likely outcome.

Suppose Hillary is +4% in TX and +1-2 in OH then she does not gain a majority of delegate in TX (remember the two-step) and only a marginal victory in OH. Then, they split VT and NH.

[cali]

15. Nope. that's not enough

Very, very few of the dem movers and shakers want this going on much longer. They know that it can only lead to a seriously damaged nominee. They will intervene. Richardson said the other day that the person emerging with the most delegates today should be embraced as the nominee. Your scenario doesn't do enough for Hillary.

[JCMach1]

25. But that, alas, is spin- unless SOMEONE gives in or cuts a deal

NO ONE will have the nomination going into the convention...

I would like to see one of them show some leadership at this point and start making some moves.

[cali]

29. no, it's not spin. It's pretty much the conventional wisdom

it could be wrong, but I think it's likely close to the truth. Again, you're not paying attention to what party insiders are saying.

And let's at least wait until today's results are in before asking them to do anything.

[angie_love]

7. you really think shes going to listen to party insiders?

Shes proven she only cares about the Clintons and the Clintons only. I've given her the benefit of the doubt up until yesterdays endorsement of McCain. If she really cared about the party she would have NEVER said that about McCain last night. Shes convinced me she'll do anything to win. Its disgusts me. So no, I don't expect her to drop out just b/c party insiders say she should. She'll go to the media and garner sympathy b/c the big bad dems are trying to force her out. She'll go down swinging and rip the party in shreds. Its the good ol Clinton way.

[JCMach1]

11. Do you see Obama listening either?-- and that's going to be a problem

I don't...

[angie_love]

13. Why should he drop out? Hes won more pledged delegates

If hillary won 11 contests in a row and had more pledged delegates, EVERYONE would be annointing Hillary as the dem. nominee. That is a fact!

[JCMach1]

16. Not suggesting either should drop out at this point...

Everyone just needs to begin looking at alternative solutions.

I seriously feel a re-vote/or caucus should be considered for MI and FL, especially considering how close the race is... that would just be one suggestion.

[cali]

20. If Obama were down by 155 pledged delegates

he wouldn't have any choice but to listen.

[JCMach1]

23. I don't think so, considering his view of the campaign as a kind of 'mission'

or 'movement'.

Example: Jesse Jackson did not withdraw from the race in 1988 until the convention.

[cali]

24. bad comparison. Jackson didn't have a political career to

keep intact. And I don't think you can assume that how he views his candidacy has more influence on his decision making than political self-interest. He doesn't have the power base to stay in under the circumstances Hillary is.

[JCMach1]

26. You make my point- time to lock them in a room somewhere!

until one of them shows some brains and/or leadership to come up with a solution.

[cali]

28. I don't see how I remotely made your point, but in any case, no

it is not time. We need to see how today sugars off and if Hillary doesn't do well, we need to see what happens in the next week. If Obama goes down today, same thing.

[Window]

31. If he ends up with less delegates that Hillary, I see him listening.

[LiberalAndProud]

17. Yes, I think she will listen.

I think it's nonsense that she only cares about the Clintons. She holds the heart-felt belief that she is the better candidate. She truly believes that she's the one who can beat McCain. I don't agree with her tactics as of late, but I don't think this is about her as much as it is about her country.

I know that you don't agree that she is the better candidate, but that's what this process is all about. It's painful but necessary.

Even assuming that you're right and she only cares about herself, she will have an eye out for her political future in the event that she doesn't win. Either way, I think she will listen.

[cali]

19. Yes, with SDs flocking to Obama and public pressure

she'll have little choice.

[JCMach1]

21. define flocking!?

Now imagine if Hillary WERE to win with at least 55% in OH and TX. What would happen then?

Superdelegates will go with who they perceive as a winner... that can change in the blink of an eye. (please note, making no predictions here).

[cali]

27. Sure, flocking would be the majority of the remaining SDs

endorsing Obama. If Hillary wins by a 10 pt margin in TX and OH, that's a totally different matter. In that case, I think you'd see the revers happen.

What do you think Richardson was saying on Sunday? What do you think Dean was saying when he said this would be wrapped up within weeks? What do you think they were telegraphing?

[MadHound]

4. If this is decided by the superdelegates,

And they decide to favor the candidate who doesn't have the majority of pledged delegates, their decision will tear the party apart, and whoever is the nominee will lose against McCain. Democrats expect that their party will be democratic, and they will stay home in droves if that expectation isn't met.

[JCMach1]

I don't buy that argument-- suppose the one with less delegates has more popular votes?

or more Democratic votes...

There is no precedent, that's why much needs to be resolved now.

[MadHound]

12. You may not buy it,

And if it's just one delegate then you may well be correct. But if it's the same scenario it is now, with one candidate having a substantial lead, and the other one far behind, then yes, it would be a disaster for the Democratic party.

[JCMach1]

14. It is a relevant question though when so many delegates are voted on NOT by

Democrats in OPEN primaries.

I seriously don't want to repeat Obama, or Hillary talking-points here...

There isn't really a standard that we have to go by at this point.

And frankly, if Hillary was up by 10 delegates on Obama she would be giving the same argument (I HAVE MORE).

[Gore1FL]

5. A blowout is a 50-50 race, mathematically.

Unless she closes the gap by 80-100 delegates, she has to do the impossible.

Assumming the unlikley scenario that she improves her super delegate ratio to 55% (she is slightly below that now) for all remaining super delegates, she has to win over 50% of every race to keep Obama from 2025.

She is ahead in RI in those races, but there are many (like WY and MS) where she has barely campaigned at all. Obama leads in double digits in NC.

Her only real chance is to close the gap by 80 to 100 now, hope that PA trends back her way, and manages to get 55%-56% of the remaining super delegates.

Realistically, I can't come up with a scenario where this happens.

[Apollo11]

8. But you just came up with a scenario where it happens!

Let's call it a Hillacle!! B-)

[Gore1FL]

22. Yes I did.

I didn't say it was mathematically impossible. But it is really unlikely without an 80-100 delegate pickup above and beyond what it takes to match Obama today. Even then it makes for a tough road ahead.

Is she capable of doing it? with the 80-100 delegates scenario, I'd say it was possible. Without them, I don't see her realistically claiming 55% of the super delegates, and don't see her with enough sustainable momentum to claim 50% of the delegates in the upcoming contests where she has not campaigned in a significant way.

[JCMach1]

10. The converse is true as well: if Obama doesn't get 60+% in all these races he cannot

win the nomination outright either!

We are back to the question posed in my OP...

[Gore1FL]

18. It doesn;t matter though

Super delegates are part of the system. If he can win with 45% as I demonstrated, there can really be no beef about the impact of the super delegates. All the calculations I made went to Clinton;s favor, and it is a mathematical nightmare for her.

80-100 delegates closer is what she realistically needs today.. It might happen. I don't see it happening. It nonetheless might. Even then she still is fighting an up hill battle, but she at least has the equiptment to attempt the climb.

[Florida22ndDistrict]

30. He needs 83+ %

Actually Obama needs 83% of all remaining pledged delegates, or Clinton needs 98% of all remaining pledged delegates to prevent super delegates from deciding it. That's the real math, and after today both of those percentages will be pushed higher. Both candidates have failed to achieve a win through the electorate. It's up to the super delegates at this point.

[JCMach1]

32. So, if it is up to them, let's forget the 'voters decide' pageant and get on with it!

It will do less damage than another month or more of this!

[billyoc]

9. We divide.

Again.