Pew Poll: Quarter of Clinton supporters would vote McCain over Obama

[BurtWorm]

Sure, they say this *now,* but what about November?

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/03/03/pew/index.html?source=rss&aim=/politics/war_room

Interesting result from a recent survey conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press: If their favored candidate is not the Democratic nominee, a quarter of Hillary Clinton's primary supporters would defect and vote for John McCain in November, while only 10 percent of Barack Obama's supporters would do the same.

This discrepancy seems to be explained by Pew's demographic breakdown of the potential defectors, as the groups most likely to jump are also Clinton's bases of support: "One-in-five white Democrats (20%) say that they will vote for McCain over Obama, double the percentage who say they would switch sides in a Clinton-McCain matchup (10%). Roughly the same number of Democrats age 65 and older say they will vote for McCain if Obama is the party's choice (22%). Obama also suffers more defections among lower income and less educated Democratic voters than does Clinton."

Here's another interesting thing -- the Clinton campaign is promoting this stat, both in an e-mail from spokesman Phil Singer and in an item on its "Delegate Hub" Web site.

[MercutioATC]

1. I'd bet you'd find similar numbers for Obama supporters at this stage.

It's a primary race. There are a lot of people who won't admit that they'll vote for the Dem, whomever that is, in the general election.

The real number would be less than 5%...for either candidate's supporters.

[liberalnurse]

2. Another 25% of the Hillary supporters will just leave that option

"Obama for President" blank on the ballot and vote for all the other Democrats on the ballot for local and State positions and issues.

[BurtWorm]

4. You really think half of Hillary's supporters would ditch the Democrat in the general?

:wtf:

[meow mix]

6. with Hillary making videos like this.. yes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou4JnWQsxKw&eurl=

[Mags]

7. I do, I've heard many Dems that they wouldn't vote Obama.

Lifelong Dems.

[liberalnurse]

9. Yes....if not, close to it.

I do.:banghead: Obamarites on the ground, on the phone, they were awful to the people for Hillary when making cold calls. I had 5 different calls and they were quite fanatic and argumentative. I told them I was working for Hillary, not intrested...they pushed over the top.

[StevieM]

10. Barack and his supporters make me feel like they think they're better then me

Why should I vote for him? Why would he want the vote of an awful person like myself?

Steve

[liberalnurse]

14. That is an excellent assessment.

Indeed...condescending, demeaning tone. I had one caller say, "well I'm a physician" he had an Indian(India) accent.....:eyes: I never told his I too was a professional.

[UALRBSofL]

20. liberalnurse I think the main issue with the Obama Camp

Is they painted Hillary and Bill as racists. I think strong Hillary supporters are very upset with this accusation of racism among the Clinton camp and as such I believe there supporters might think twice before pulling that lever.

[DURHAM D]

22. Yep - we are also pissed about the "Clintons destroying the party"

talking point they are all using.

[DemBones DemBones]

45. Right again, when the shoe is on the other foot.

If anybody would destroy the party, it would be BO and MO.

[DemBones DemBones]

43. Right. It's been inexcusable. nt

[democrattotheend]

35. I'm always polite to Hillary supporters

Can't speak for other callers, but I always go out of my way to be polite to everyone who takes the time to talk to me. If someone says they are leaning Clinton, I will try to persuade them to go for Obama, but if it sounds like their mind is made up I thank them for their time. When I was canvassing in Columbus over the weekend I did ask the Clinton supporters if they'd vote for Obama in November if he got the nomination, and they all said yes.

I am sorry to hear that you have had rude callers, but these people are all volunteers, and I hope you don't make your decision in November based on them.

[DemBones DemBones]

47. That's good. Everyone should behave that way

but they don't. However, the behaviour of many Obama supporters is not why I won't vote for Obama.

It's Obama himself that is the problem for me. He lies and is smug and we've already had that for two terms now.

I'll vote third party if he's the nominee. I've voted for the Dem "because he's the lesser evil" far too many times and I'm not doing it anymore, The party does not own me.

[pampango]

17. I hope not. That would be the same percentage as with Lieberman supporters. n/t

[JackORoses]

36. Doing so will not make Hillary President. She will never be the President.

Can't you just learn to accept this and move on with your life?

But no, you will cut off your nose to spite your face...

[IndianaJones]

3. Obama will lose handily in the GE. nt.

[book_worm]

5. Not surprising from what I've seen on DU from some of her supporters

[CyberPieHole]

8. I don't blame them. Obama's campaign of SMEARS and LIES and RACE BAITING disgusts Clinton voters...

When Obama decided to paint the Clintons as RACISTS he did so at his own peril. He has lost those voters. If Obama gets the nomination, Payback will be a b**ch.

[IndianaJones]

12. Its not so much Obama as his supporters that disgusts me. I have transferred some of that...

unfairly, to Obama.

[DemBones DemBones]

53. You're right. I used to say I'd never vote for Clinton

but next to Obama, she looks a lot more progressive than she used to. Not to mention being able to beat McCain.

[LostInAnomie]

11. Why not? They seem to support the same policies.

[1620rock]

13. Those Hillary supporters are Republic cross-overs.

[nels25]

33. Actually you are on to something

I have read and heard reports today of a large cross-over GOP to DEM in Texas (not so sure about Ohio) and it is speculated that these GOP types are either voting for Hillary or Barack depending on who they think would make the weakest candidate.

IMHO I would guess if this is in fact going on then the vast majority of them will be for Hillary, do to GOP hatred of her and a feeling by them that she will be an easier target.

Guess we shall no more tonight.

I will be watching for any exit poll data about cross over GOP voters and who they favored.

:dem:

[DURHAM D]

52. I guess you missed the reports that came out last week -

Hillary has won the Democratic vote in the prior primaries.

Obama is ahead because of independent and Republican voters.

I want the super delegates to protect me from non-Democrats who have mucked up our primaries.

[MadBadger]

15. And yet Obama wins in GE matchup after matchup.

[cascadiance]

16. The question is, are these REAL Democrats that are defecting or "fake" ones!

That claim to be Democrats so that they can put in Hillary in to either "lose" to a Republican, or win and continue corporatist rule.

[cjsmom]

19. IMO

We are real democrats.

[cascadiance]

44. And what makes a voter that would switch their vote to Republican based on personalities a Democrat?

It's kind of mysterious to me. Would voting for McCain be "principled" for you? Please explain HOW it would!

Now I can understand some who might vote for the Green Party or Nader as being "principled" and not necessarily pro-Republican, though they might enable McCain to win by doing so instead of "voting for the lesser of two evils". But to go out and vote for the evil shows that their support is all about supporting a personality and some other agenda than just the Democratic Party. To say you are a true "Democrat" and then go to vote for a Republican when you feel those you want in power aren't is not being a real Democrat, or even a progressive.

[cjsmom]

48. not about personality

But you are of course entitled to your opinion. I do appreciate that your post was polite. That's seen so rarely on this site these days. Thank you.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. I think it's proving many Clinton supporters are actually closeted Republicans.

Which, if you look at their candidate, makes sense.

[cjsmom]

25. or moderates?

?

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Na', ya' vote for McCain, you're a Republican.

[cjsmom]

31. In your opinion.

.

[Drunken Irishman]

32. It's not an opinion, if you vote Republican, you are, at that time, a Republican.

I don't care if you say otherwise. All those Democrats who voted for Reagan in '80 and '84 were Republicans.

[cjsmom]

37. Okay,

whatever floats your little happy boat.

[demo dutch]

26. Quite frankly I think you've all gone too far! Sad to see that the DU forum has been hijacked

by divisiveness. If it's any indication of what's to come with an Obama presidency, it will be another long 4 yrs. to look forward to.

[sallyseven]

57. You must be a drunken something.

Hilary is more of a Democrat than Obama could ever be. Listen to what he really says. I hear him defend the behavior of the Right wing repugs all the time. Got to be nice and not stand up for Democratic principals. Just get along and let them run things. I have had it with him. He is running a smear campaign. I don't understand this whole election. The country needs mature, stable and concerned leadership. He is not providing it.

[demo dutch]

24. I can give a huge list incl right here on DU of Obama supporters that vow to vote McCain if Hil win

Are you calling them FAKE too?????????

[cascadiance]

38. Yup, now if they said they'd vote for Nader or McKinney, then I might have different thoughts...

But if they switch over to McCain, then they completely defeat their sense of being Democrats, when they vote for the enemy. I'm not tied to Obama either. I'd personally rather have Edwards myself. But these folks that say they will switch to McCain whether they are Clinton or Obama supporters, are more personality cultists rather than true fighters for change from the corrupt status quo!

[demo dutch]

41. If there no one to vote for, then where the point!

If the divisiveness is any indication of what to come, than it will be another long 4 yrs. Hardly anything to look forward to. Quite frankly if this the caliber of sorry candidates the Dem party can come up with then we deserve to loose in 2008!

[cascadiance]

46. Please explain then, how Obama is worse than McCain..

Now with Hillary, she and Bill both supported the Telecom act in 1996 that she signed into law, that McCain voted against. So if that's the sole measure one looks at, then I could see how an Obama voter might vote for McCain in that instance, but there are so many other principled stands that voting for McCain would go against being what a Democrat is being about, that it defies logic for me voting for him. And yes, I probably have more respect for people who vote for Hillary if she wins the nomination, than those "Democrats" who vote for McCain if she's the nominee and not Barack. I don't like our choices either as much as I might if someone like Edwards or Feingold were running, but I don't have that choice. I look for the best of who's running, and McCain is last on the list at this point.

[demo dutch]

58. They're all garbage. I actually have the choice of re-locating since I've got dual citizenship, so

we're seriously checking into leaving and going back to Europe, where we still have family and connections. I've lost all faith in this country. This election won't change anything. I'll be checking back in when this country has solved it's problems and there's better leadership on the horizon, and I have a feeling it's going to be a while.

[BadgerLaw2010]

29. Why does it matter? The result is the same.

[9119495]

18. I think these numbers say a great deal about the Clinton machine

They are not interested in the Democratic party anymore. They are interested in dynasty. If I were Hillary Clinton, I would mention these poll numbers at EVERY stop and urge my supporters to go for the nominee...WHOEVER IT IS. People love her when she is nice. If her voters stayed home, I would be sure to never vote for her if she ran in '12.

[redqueen]

21. Experience keeps a dear school...

but it's the only place fools will learn.

[Hoof Hearted]

28. I have heard some military Dems say they will go with McCain if Hillary doesn't get the nom.

I'm disconcerted about those.

[nels25]

30. Sadly I know several who will

do just as this poll suggests.

They have strongly told me that if the choice is between another 4 years of a Clinton and McCain either they stay home or hold their nose and vote for McCain (they think he is much different than shrub, go figure).

A lot of my friends are Democrats or disillusioned Republicans, they are not supremely progressive as DU defines the word.

:shrug:

[onenote]

34. some other numbers from the same survey:

46 percent of men will vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee. 51 percent will vote for McCain if Clinton is the nominee.

And, Obama beats McCain by 20 points among female independents, while Clinton only ekes out a 3 percent win over McCain among female independents.

When you consider that despite what they may be saying now, many voters who identify themselves as Democrats (including women who identify themselves as Democrats) will "come home" and support the party's nominee in November, whether its Obama or Clinton, the importance of independent voters becomes quite apparent. And Obama cleans up among indpendent voters, particularly women.

[Emillereid]

39. Now the truth comes out - Hillary's supporters aren't real democrats. In fact

I bet if you scratched the surface you would find that the quarter who wouldn't vote for Obama are raging racists. Just think of the demographic most likely to jump ship. And I believe she encourages it.

[DURHAM D]

51. If you scratch the surface of Clinton supporters you will find we are

real Democrats and liberals. We are disgusted with the "fake progressives" who are actually conservatives and independents. Obama's race baiting did it for me - how fucking nasty and insulting.

[demo dutch]

59. You're right. The "base" dems are voting Hillary for the most part. They've been polling like that

again and again

[DemBones DemBones]

40. In November, if it's Obama vs. McCain, McCain wins.

That's the reason to nominate Clinton, she can beat McCain and she's certainly to the left of him.

The article says TWICE as many Dems would vote for McCain over Obama as for McCain over Clinton.

A lot more Dems, like me, are going to vote Green or Nader, depending, I'm hoping the Greens will nominate Cynthia McKinney. I mean if Obama is the nominee, of course. I'll hold my nose and vote for Clinton if she's the nominee.

[Iceburg]

42. The mysogeny expressed by Obama (and his supporters) is undoubtedly a big factor/nt

[GoldieAZ49]

49. This is why Obama cannot win against McCain

"One-in-five white Democrats (20%) say that they will vote for McCain over Obama,

No candidate will win with 20% of their "base" voting for the opponent. McCain will win by a landslide.

[susankh4]

50. This is not a surprise

I have been saying it for months.

[damntexdem]

54. The 10% of Obama supporters is bad enough.

Fully one-quarter of HRC supporters?

[Hatchling]

55. I support Clinton but intend to vote for the nominee.

But I have some friends who are trying to influence me heavily to vote McCain if Obama is the candidate instead of Clinton. They are pretty persuasive, I must admit.

I'm not happy about Obama at all. He's being nominated for our party by Independents and crossover Repulicans. Painting the Clintons as racists was really dirty. McClurkin is also an issue with me. Separate but equal sucks. And the coded sexist language he uses pisses me off, i.e. "periodically" & "ebb and flow". And he used the word "homeland". I don't live in the homeland, I live in the United States of America!

Add to that the Nafta memo and the Rezco situation, for me he's a fatally flawed candidate.

[Justice Is Comin]

56. He's got the audacity to

say that all Hillary voters would vote for him but he's not so sure the other way way around. Fuck him.

I wouldn't vote for him if he eliminated all my taxes and paid my health insurance out of his own pocket. I can't stand to look at that arrogant no experience phony.

[applegrove]

60. That is bad bad news.