Help Please!!!:Fact or Fiction about TX? Also, some musings from NBC News

[Tropics_Dude83]

I read an article last night that 60% of Texas has already voted. 1 million out of an estimated 2.1 million expected to vote have. Yahoo quoted the Texas Secretary of State on this. Of course, you can't always believe what you read. I've seen stuff I know to be factually inaccurate a lot. Can anybody confirm this or refute it soundly?

If 60% has already voted, these late polls mean nothing.

Totally unrelated, and I am not asking if this is fact or fiction. LOL. I know it to be true.

From NBC News:

does anyone believe any other candidate could have lost 11-straight contests, be this far behind in delegates, and be simply two victories away from being back in the game? One thing the media has done is they've given Clinton every chance she wants to write her own comeback story. She gets another shot today.

:)

[WolverineDG]

1. The majority of voting generally comes in during early voting

but this year, who knows?

I know this statistic holds true in my county.

dg

[Tropics_Dude83]

5. Thanks for the info

[demo dutch]

27. See link--- Estimated 60 % already voted just like in FL and MI

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i9EB1bZOa3bSVHoLh75KNClKet6AD8V68GR00

[JKaiser]

2. Go Hillary! I hope she wins

[cjsmom]

6. I really hope so too!

:-)

[JKaiser]

3. Go Hillary! I hope she wins

[snooper2]

4. Everyone I know have voted early

And at least half are going to caucus tonight.....

GOBAMA!

[Avalux]

7. Yep. I don't have it in print, but they reported this on my local news last night.

Now they're reporting heavy turnout today - it'll break all records for primary voting. Early voting leaned heavily towards Obama and Hillary's 3 am ad bombed terribly.

We'll see.

[damntexdem]

13. And the caucuses will likely strongly favor Obama.

Hillary needed a 7:15pm ad more than she did a 3am ad. ;-)

[loveangelc]

29. They said early voting leaned heavily toward Obama?

i wonder how they know this...

[MoonRiver]

8. That's what I heard also.

Texas: vote early, vote often! :D

[Jersey Devil]

9. I've been saying that for a few days now

What the hell difference does it make if there are late poll changes when most people have voted already? The only way it could make a difference, after giving it some thought, is if one side's strong voters (blacks for Obama or Latinos for Clinton) voted in much more heavy proportions in the early voting than their counterparts on the other side who waited until election day.

For instance, if 60% of Obama supporters already voted but only 40% of Clinton supporters voted early. I don't have any idea of why that would possibly happen, but it the only way I can see that would give any large advantage to a candidate who is the beneficiary of a late swing in the polls.

[Tropics_Dude83]

10. Can't wait to see the turnout percentages

See how much is latino and how much is AA.

[damntexdem]

14. Actually, since most registered voters don't vote in the primaries, ...

and have not voted early, the great majority voters COULD turn out to vote today. And in fact, fewer than half of the EXPECTED votes were cast early.

[Jersey Devil]

16. Could be, but it would be interesting to really know the numbers

I don't even know if the polling includes people who have already voted. If it did and say, for instance, someone voted Obama after wrestling with the decision but now thinks Clinton would have been the better choice, isn't that poll skewed?

[MoonRiver]

15. My experience is that the elderly vote early more than other demographics.

That favors Hillary.

[Jersey Devil]

18. How would that favor Hillary?

I thought one of her strengths was with older voters. If most of those have voted early, then there'd be few older voters left to vote on election day after the polls had swung in her favor.

[MoonRiver]

25. I was talking about early voting, which is the theme of this thread.

A bird in the hand is worth more than one in the bush.

[Jersey Devil]

28. umm, not really

The theme of this thread is whether the latest poll swing in Hillary's favor really means all that much due to the fact that so many people have voted early. I agree with you that if older people tend to vote early then she'd have an advantage in the early voting, but that was not the discussion.

I think what we are trying to determine is whether poll changes now are too late to affect the final results significantly due to a very large percentage of early voting.

[MoonRiver]

32. Well, you seem to understand what I was saying, and seem to agree.

Win-Win, no? :hi:

[Kittycat]

11. Yes and No. It's a two step... or a Praucus.

There's the primary voting, then the caucus voting. So while many have voted early, or will finish up today. 1/3 more delegates will be awarded through the caucus system tonight. So those voters now have to go back and caucus to really seal it.

[damntexdem]

21. And those elected in the caucuses tonight will need to caucus again ...

at district caucuses to elect those who go to the state convention, with national delegates elected from the state, and I believe some from the district, conventions.

[damntexdem]

12. There are no facts about Texas elections, only fictions.

;-)

However, there are some near-facts. Because Texas does not register by party, the only figures are total registered voters, cumulative early-voting totals, past experience, and semi-educated guesses (i.e., "expected to vote"). In the early voting, nearly 900,000 votes were cast in the Democratic primary:
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/feb29demo.shtml. (Just over 300,000 votes were cast in the GOP Primary.) Thus, if over 2 million vote in the TX Dem Primary, then a bit under half of the votes have been cast. But this is an extraordinary year, so who knows how many votes will actually be cast?

Presumably no more than the 7.8 million registered voters will vote in the primary -- not accounting for voting by the dead. ;-)

Note that this evening, starting 15 minutes after the polls close, we will caucus to elect delegates who will in turn elect about one-third of the (elected) Texas delegates to the Democratic convention. So in that sense, voting for 1/3 of the delegates won't even start until after the polls close.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

17. The estimated turnout is 3.3 million Texas voters

In the states most populated 15 counties they had 1.2 million vote early.

What does all this mean? Not a damn thing. It's Texas, there's no telling how many will actually make it to the polls let alone go back to caucus tonight.

[flpoljunkie]

19. Just image if it was Barack Obama who had lost 11 contests in a row...

The Clinton camp along with the MSM and the McCain camp would be calling for his head. That Hillary is allowed to continue on after 11 straight losses, speaks volumes.

[GoldieAZ49]

20. FL and MI will hold new primaries

that will make it very interesting

Clinton isn't going anywhere, and no, it has never happened before


That is why this has come to be referred to as a Soap Opera

[damntexdem]

23. Well, more likely than a soap opera will be a ...

whitewash. ;-)

[Maribelle]

22. In Florida on primary morning, they thought 50 - 60 percent had voted early

Then the records began to shatter, all of them, since day one.


At the end of the day barely 30% had voted early

[demo dutch]

24. Yes early voting ended last Fri with huge lines. A final tally wasn’t immediately available Friday

afternoon, but as of Wednesday, about 805,000 people had voted in the state’s 15 biggest counties, according to the Texas Secretary of State’s web site. More than 600,000 of those voters are participating in the Democratic primary.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

30. The final number on those counties for Democratic votes was 890,188

We had a pretty a pretty good finale. :)

[jenmito]

26. "TX: Obama leads early voting by 8%" (March 3rd)

"According to the latest WFFABELO tracking poll, Hillary has a statistically insiginificant 1% lead. However, among those who have already voted, Obama is leading by 8%. This will be crucial to his win tomorrow night."

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/3/225417/0439

[Tom Rinaldo]

31. Edwards lost 11 in a row in 2004 and no one clammered for him to drop out

And he had only won ONE primary before that string of 11 losses. Edwards dropped out after he lost all ten March 2nd 2004 primaries also, making it 21 losses in a row at that point, with only one victory for the entire primary season.

Here read all about it:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4805803