Delegate math...

[lapfog_1]

I need someone to check me on my Delegate Math counter "game" I have been playing with.

Please, I'm looking for serious discussion and input here, not wild "my candidate and no one else" types.

Yes, I support Obama, but I'm looking for serious input backed by polling data.

Here are the remaining delegate divvy up according to my guesses.

OH - Hillary +13 (77 to 64)
TX - Obama +5 (99 to 94) (because of the caucus part, Hillary will win by narrow margin in the Primary)
RI - Hillary +3 (12 to 9)
VT - Obama +7 (11 to 4)

MS - Obama +9 (21 to 12)
Guam - Hillary +4 (4 to 0)
NC - Obama +29 (72 to 43)
KY - Obama +5 (28 to 23) (that's one I don't really know about)
MT - Obama +2 (9 to 7)
Puerto Rico - Hillary +15 (35 to 20)
WY - Obama +4 (8 TO 4)
PA - Hillary +12 (85 TO 73)
IN - Hillary +10 (41 TO 31)
WV - Obama +6 (17 TO 11) (again, I have no polling data on this one)
OR - Obama + 16 (34 TO 18)
SD - Hillary +3 (9 TO 6)

So, am I wildly wrong somewhere?

btw, given these pledged delegate awards AND assuming no more Super Delegates switch one way or the other, Hillary needs about 273 of the remaining 364 Super Delegates to secure the nomination. Obama would need 145 of the remaining 364 to secure the nomination.

[IndianaJones]

1. I believe Obama is up big in IN. Neighbors. nt.

[jlake]

2. I think you're wrong about KY & WV - both will be strong Clinton states.

[lapfog_1]

3. do you have polling data for these two?

just some links...

[thesubstanceofdreams]

4. Yes, at the moment Clinton is favored to win there

I believe PR is winner-takes-all, and Obama is the heavy favorite due to being endorsed by the Governor and his political machine.

[mohc]

5. You are basically on track

VT +7 for Obama would require him to win over 75% of the vote, which is not likely, it will be either +5 or +3 depending on if he can get over 65%. And Obama leads Clinton in the latest IN poll 40 - 25.

[lapfog_1]

7. IN is much different than OH?

Why is that? I thought they would be very similar.

I have VT as Obama 65 to Hillary 35... has she closed the gap there?

[karynnj]

9. A very large percent of Indiana's democrats live in Lake County

They get Chicago newspapers, TV, and radio.

[mohc]

10. No, but 65 - 35 would not be +7

Delegates are allocated at each level, not all at once. Vermont has 15 delegates, 10 district level, 3 at-large, and 2 PLEO. The district delegates would be allocated 6-4 or 7-3 for Obama, depending on he is above or below exactly 65% (6.51 would round up to 7 but 6.49 would round down to 6). The 3 at-large will split 2-1 for Obama, no matter how bad Clinton does as long she stays above 15%. Similarly, the 2 PLEO will split 1-1 unless Clinton falls below 15%. So 65-35 will result in 9-6 or 10-5 delegate split depending on if Obama is above or below 65%. In order to make the split 11-4 Obama would need to win 76-24 or so, which I doubt would happen. Another 10% would make it 86-14, at which point Obama would win all 15 delegates. My guess is that Obama will win something like 64-36, and the delegate split will be 9-6.

[lapfog_1]

12. Fixed it... and 9 to 6 is what I "guessed"

thanks.

[Larry in KC]

6. Math error in NC: 72-43 is a +29 Obama, not just +19

[lapfog_1]

8. Yes, but that's just my "visual" error...

the conclusion about the Supers is using the correct figures (using CNN delegate game)

I'll edit the OP, thanks!

[lapfog_1]

11. Ok, second try...

I changed KY and WV as per jlake... and Indiana as per mohc... and reduced the margin of victory for Obama in VT.

OH - Hillary +13 (77 to 64)
TX - Obama +5 (99 to 94) (because of the caucus part, Hillary will win by narrow margin in the Primary)
RI - Hillary +3 (12 to 9)
VT - Obama +3 (9 to 6)

MS - Obama +9 (21 to 12)
Guam - Hillary +4 (4 to 0)
NC - Obama +29 (72 to 43)
KY - Hillary +7 (29 to 22) (that's one I don't really know about)
MT - Obama +2 (9 to 7)
Puerto Rico - Hillary +15 (35 to 20)
WY - Obama +4 (8 TO 4)
PA - Hillary +12 (85 TO 73)
IN - Obama +8 (40 TO 32)
WV - Hillary +6 (17 TO 11) (again, I have no polling data on this one)
OR - Obama + 16 (34 TO 18)
SD - Hillary +3 (9 TO 6)

Hillary now needs 273 of the remaining 364 Supers to win, Obama needs 150 of the 364 to win.

Keep 'em coming!

And thanks to everyone that's helping.

[mohc]

16. The Clinton gameplan

Behind 155 or so pledged delegates, and with today looking like a wash at best, Clinton is going to be banking on something she is fighting against at the moment. Right now she is running into the momentum Obama has built up since Supertuesday, and trying to minimize its effects on the today's races. But with PA being the only big pickup opportunity for Clinton, she has to somehow create major movement in the states that come after PA. And the only way to do that is to create momentum of her own. Whether she likes it or not, MS and WY are going to put Obama back on a winning streak, so what we are really talking about is creating momentum with a single state: PA. A week later NC and IN vote, and have more total delegates than PA alone. It is very difficult to imagine a scenario where Clinton is able to accomplish this short of winning PA in the area of 80-20%.

[Johnny__Motown]

13. Here is a link to another thread with some predictions for today's delegate totals (TX+27 O)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4870387&mesg_id=4870387

[lapfog_1]

19. That's overly optimistic for Obama.

I'll stick with my numbers... Obama wins the Texas delegate race, but not by a lot... Hillary wins the Texas primary vote, but not by a lot.

[HeraldSquare212]

14. Here's Alter from Newsweek running the delegate numbers.

He doens't use polls, just gives Hillary the benefit of the doubt on every race:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240/output/print

Hillary’s Math Problem

Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.

Hillary Clinton may be poised for a big night tonight, with wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.

I'm no good at math either, but with the help of Slate’s Delegate Calculator I've scoped out the rest of the primaries, and even if you assume huge Hillary wins from here on out, the numbers don't look good for Clinton. In order to show how deep a hole she's in, I've given her the benefit of the doubt every week for the rest of the primaries

-snip-

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal.

-snip-

The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how Obama can't carry any large states besides Illinois. How he can't close the deal. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator.

[lapfog_1]

20. Basically, I'm agreeing with him

but I'm trying to do it with numbers that even Hillary supporters supply.

Let's say she "wins" three of four today... (but she will "lose" Texas in the delegate count), then accept that she now has "big MO" swinging her way... what does she have to do to get to the convention with enough to secure the nomination?

Right now, she has to keep winning everywhere that it's possible for her to win, win big, and THEN convince a 2/3 to 3/4 majority of uncommitted Super Delegates that she is the candidate to beat the Republicans.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. SD won't go to Hillary and PR won't, either.

[lapfog_1]

17. I really don't have a feel for SD

as for Puerto Rico... the polling data says she has a solid lead there.

Of course, as the campaigns gear up for each contest, the polls tighten when Hillary is initially way ahead. But for my model, I simply went with what I've seen published here... which, admittedly, is kinda scant and may be biased one way or the other.

Still, I'm trying to come up with a model, based on reality and not wild hopes, that shows how Hillary can tie the current pledged+announced Supers count, meaning that of the remaining Supers, she need only win 50 percent to win the nomination.

So far, even being very generous to her, I can't do it.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. PR's governor endorsed Obama.

By the time PR rolls around, Clinton will most likely be out of it, anyway.

As for SD, I don't see why it can't mirror ND -- a state Obama won with ease.

[lapfog_1]

22. So, what's the polling data for SD?

I was thinking that Hillary's big "MO" would swing it slightly to her column, but I'm willing to be convinced that Obama wins it.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. What big MO?

SD won't vote until June 3rd.

[lapfog_1]

24. You gotta understand... I'm taking the Hillary supporters

positions as gospel for this... and doing the math.

Trying to prove to myself that EVEN if she pulls out 3 wins today AND has momentum going forward, it's going to be very difficult for her to win UNLESS she wins today (and the rest of the time) in blowout after blowout.

Her negative campaign (kitchen sink) may eek out victories here and there, and maybe even in the bigger states left... but it won't be enough!

And I hope to prove that... at least to myself, if not a few Hillary supporters.

[Wayjose]

18. EARLY EXIT POLLS FROM TODAY TX AND OH

TEXAS: McClain voters are voting massively for Obama. They are rejecting Rush Limbaugh's cry to vote for Hillary. McCain voters want to defeat Hillary now. It is estimated that Republicans are making a difference of 5-8% in favor of Obama. he GOP is voting for Obama in the Houston suburbs.Hispanics are voting massively for Hillary and the African American vote is going decisevely for Obama. If Obama wins he would have been helped immensely by the GOP-McCain voters.

OHIO: It seems that Hillary will win Ohio...BUT, bad weather is decreasing the turnout in Northern OH, Hillary country at the same time it is accentuating Obama's strength in his strongholds. The African American vote seems to be going to Obama 85-15...ionstead of the expected 90-10. Exit polling will be difficult to ascertain in the rural areas (Hillary's country) because of the difficulty in reaching these areas due to inclement weather.

(From Right Pundits)