Clintons impossible odds: heres a reality check!

[blocker]

So that means, unless she cheats, she cannot win.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240

[JKaiser]

1. It's sad.. I thought hillary had a chance

[hueyshort]

8. Obama has the cheating problem

based on what I've seen the last couple of days

[damonm]

12. Clarify.

[elizm]

14. Your first day....we appreciate links around here to flamebait posts.

Got a link to that accusation of cheating?

[tandem5]

2. another reality check?

[LaurenG]

3. The webpage page has a server problem. nt

[Kittycat]

4. loads for me.

[LaurenG]

10. Thanks, it works now for me too. nt

[scoobiedavis]

5. HRC hasn't a chance to do anything EXCEPT:

to play into Limbaugh's plans for Obama to be "bloodied up" for the general election with McCain: http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0308/Rush_urges_Hillary_vote.html

[grantcart]

6. its worse than that because delegates are split in a distict not statewide

so districts that have a small number of delegates like 2 0r 3 are always going to split 2-1 or 1-1 so to make up big numbers you are specifically going to have to get 65% or more in districts that have 4-7 delegates and those are usaully large urband districts that have sizeable AA votes

which is exactly what is happening in TX

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4880238&mesg_id=4880238

[mmonk]

7. I think that's why some people in the party are starting to mumble.

[Scurrilous]

9. K & R

:thumbsup:

[TheDoorbellRang]

11. That's what several posters have pointed out here already

Maybe now that some here see it on an oh-ficial newsite they'll believe it. She has to win at least 60% of remaining delegates (which means an even higher percentage of votes) to break even in pledged delegates.

[Life Long Dem]

13. I was just going to talk about this

I see it as if she loses tonight and continues on, then she plans on cheating. And then there is this talk of Hillary's campaign having infighting over whether she should continue. Screw this infight shit, it is the country wanting her to discontinue SHOWN by Obama kicking ass tonight where he was double digits behind her not long ago at ALL!

[jackstraw45]

15. How SEXIST of Newsweek....

:sarcasm:

[Fire_brand]

16. math is sexist and doesn't count

[Dogmudgeon]

17. Read the article

1. Jonathan "Smirk" Alter. Long-time Clinton-phobe.

2. Authoritative Source: the Slate Delegate Calculator.

3. Assumptions carefully tailored to produce a Hillary loss while seeming to favor her. Those "wins" assume no change in Obama's popularity.

4a. No consideration of the Rezko trial, which could easily sink Obama's campaign if he stumbles -- or if the Congrees decides not to move it again to reduce Obama's liability.

4b. The absolute requirement to get Hillary out of the race before the risky trial testimony. After that, he risks becoming damaged goods. (But see stipulation in 4a.)

NOTE: Obama could do well concerning Rezko, but they are taking no chances. The trial has already been moved a couple of times, and the calls for Hillary's submission have surged right before those changes.

5a. Assumption of superdelgate conformity to popular vote -- ignoring several factors that favor Obama but don't play well in the press.

5b. Assumption that all superdelegate defections are one-way, i.e., FROM Hillary TO Obama.

Sure it will be tougher for Hillary. But Obama does not have a cakewalk, either. The press is STILL assuming he is made of Teflon, and trying to convince everyone that he really is. But they assume that NOTHING will change between now and the convention.

We already know it could change for the worse for Hillary. But no thought is given to the potential of an Obama burn-out, or another superdelegate shift.

Alter knows how to play the game, and plays it well. But he can't keep a poker face to save his life.

--p!