Brown University: Statistical Tie in Rhode Island

[catgirl]

A Brown University poll in Rhode Island shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama, 42% to 37%, within the margin of error of +/- 5 points.

http://www.insidepolitics.org/BrownPoll308.pdf

Voter turnout and last minute decision making could help Obama win in RI.

[Viking12]

1. For the 50,000,000th time +/- margin of error DOES NOT mean it's a 'statistical tie'

The margin of error is an expression of a confidence interval.

[grantcart]

2. well atleast you can call Jennifer and ask her about methodology lol

[catgirl]

3. You'll have to complain to Taegan Goddard

It's his title. Here's the link:

http://www.politicalwire.com/

I guess what they mean is, it's close and could go either way (although
Hillary has the edge).

[Viking12]

5. Yes, it's piss poor reporting

..but equally problematic to uncritically accept and repeat such headlines.

A 5% with a 5% MOE results in an 85% probability that Hillary has the edge.

Of course, with so many undecideds still in the mix you're correct to suggest that it could go either way.

[housewolf]

4. 21% Undecided?

When was that poll taken? That's quite high a number for undecideds at this point.