Early March 4 Exit Poll Results

[debatepro]

http://www.townhall.com/news/politics-elections/2008/03/04/early_march_4_exit_poll_results

Early exit polls show independents are a sizable chunk of the electorate in presidential primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont.

In all those states except Rhode Island, Tuesday's primaries were "open," meaning all voters could choose which party's contest to vote in. In Rhode Island, only registered independents could choose between parties.

The surveys for The Associated Press and television networks found self-described independents were about one in five voters in Ohio's Democratic primary, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.

Exit poll results for Republican primaries were available only in Ohio and Texas. In Ohio, independents were about one in seven GOP voters, in Texas one in five.

[MadBadger]

1. That could be good news for Obama

In the SUSA poll that had Clinton up 10 in Ohio, Obama lead in idies 56-43, but they only made up 12 percent of the vote

[elizm]

5. That's assuming they actually let them vote in Ohio...

I've been reading about problems in Ohio all day...Independents not being given a Dem. ballot.

[jefferson_dem]

7. Unless these were Limbots coming over to fuck up our process by supporting Hillary...

n/t

[MadBadger]

9. Yea, but there is a better chance they are registered repukes.

[TheDeathadder]

67. Oh so it's awesome when Repukes vote for Obama

but terrible when they vote for Clinton

That's so backwards...they shouldn't be allowed to vote in a Dem Primary at all, but I'm all for even steven.

[bluestateguy]

2. Independents are good for Obama; Republicans I'm not so sure

Some Republicans will vote for him because they like him, and some will follow Rush Limbaugh's marching orders to vote for the "Hildebeast" thinking that she is an easier opponent in the Fall. I think the Republican vote will be a wash.

[book_worm]

6. right, I've heard anecdotal stuff about republicans voting for Hillary in Texas

thanks to Rush.

[anigbrowl]

13. I think GOPers will cancel themselves out

some vote for Hillary, some vote for Obama. I think their overall influence on the outcome will be marginal at best.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Majority want superdelegates to reflect popular vote.

---

SUPERDELEGATES

Roughly six in 10 Democratic voters Tuesday said "superdelegates" _ party leaders and elected officials who get to cast votes at the party nominating convention this summer in Denver _ should vote based on results of the primaries and caucuses rather than for the candidate they think has the best chance to win in November.

Even among Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's voters, about half said the superdelegates should follow the results of the primaries and caucuses. Sen. Barack Obama's supporters were more likely to say so. Clinton is trailing in pledged delegates and depending on how the remaining primaries go, it's possible her only chance for the nomination is if many superdelegates support her at the Democratic convention.

[book_worm]

4. hard to say who this will help for sure.

[Tropics_Dude83]

8. Very very very interesting

I have NO idea what this means. My thoughts that this would be a Hillary Clinton blowout have just evaporated into thin air though.

[Teaser]

10. Short story: they can't grok the numbers.

when they release this useless shit, they don't have a clue what's going on.

[grantcart]

11. pls remember that exit polls do not reflect the sizeable early voting

[debatepro]

12. I think in most exit polls Obama does better with independents

For example in New Mexico Obama wins independents 65% - 29%. Take NJ a state she won by 10%... obama wins independents 49% - 43%

[jefferson_dem]

14. 5:15 - CLINTON INTERNALS FOR OHIO . . . Clinton 49 Obama 46, expects to gain 8 delegates overall.

Not bad...if true.

EDIT: 5:15 - CLINTON INTERNALS FOR OHIO . . . Clinton 49 Obama 46, Clinton expects to gain about 8 delegates overall.

http://www.rightpundits.com/?p=1168

[adoraz]

15. I like those a lot...

only 3% would be great.

[Tropics_Dude83]

17. If true, delegate tie in Ohio at best for HRC

She needs to withdraw from the race if this is true.

[Unsane]

18. Not bad for who?

The Hillary fawning media has set it up to where if she wins OH, then she's right back in the game (even though this doesn't make sense mathematically).

[Renew Deal]

21. I don't trust that site.

We'll see

[blitzen]

25. same site that said exit polls were showing Hillary would take Wisc

it's a bogus right-wing silly tricks site

[jefferson_dem]

27. Is it? I had not even heard of the site until I saw someone link to it here today.

If it's a bogus site, sorry all.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Did they project their Wisconsin results on internal polls?

If not, then this could be true. I think they were basing their Wisconsin numbers off estimation and guessing, not internal polls.

[qazplm]

26. if Clinton only wins by 3%

She's toast.

[dempartisan23]

45. great news for obama

he was 20 down 2 weeks ago

[book_worm]

49. Obama losing Ohio by three would be a moral victory.

[jefferson_dem]

Self-delete.

Sorry.

[Kahuna]

89. Reall? Is she including indies and repukes in those internals? nt

[stellanoir]

16. In Rhode Island Republicans had to disaffiliate in early December.

My mum was bummed. She wanted to vote.

Here is my voting tale.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4881706

It's baloney how exit polls have been discredited when they are a global safeguard against election fraud.

They only stopped working here when we got those damned machines.

Ughhhh

[rolleitreks]

20. I think the problem was *amateur* exit pollers in 2004. n/t

[Renew Deal]

19. Sounds like indie vote is down in Ohio and up in Texas vs. 2004.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/scorecard/index.html

[Drunken Irishman]

22. I don't care about Ohio, Texas is the one I really want.

I conceded Ohio long ago, but if Obama can win Texas, it's over for her.

But if Hillary's Ohio numbers are true, she's in trouble.

[Renew Deal]

23. SurveyUSA may have underpolled indies in Ohio AND texas

They have them at 12 in Ohio and 13% in Texas. They may be badly wrong.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=96160e3e-e0bc-44cb-8273-28a16edbf219

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d7698664-137f-46f0-ba92-32aea473d72e

[rinsd]

24. Ugh townhall.....

:puke:

[VolcanoJen]

28. Per CNN, Obama winning 35% of Latino vote in Texas.

Clinton winning 18% of African-American vote in Texas.

That's a higher percentage of Latino vote going to Obama than I would have expected.

And if Clinton's internals in Ohio only show her 3 points up in the popular vote, that's great news for us Buckeyes who pounded the ground and brought her 20%+ lead down to that miniscule, de-facto delegate tie number.

Early exits are misleading, but no way are the people in the Clinton camp feeling great about these at this hour.

[democrattotheend]

30. 18% of the AA vote is high

That does not look so good for Obama.

[Renew Deal]

39. It matches Survey USA

and that has him ahead. But I feel like it's too high. 35% latino for Obama is better than Survey USA too.

[Tropics_Dude83]

31. Somewhat encouraging

Would have liked Clinton's AA percentage to have been under 15 and closer to 10 though:(

[MadBadger]

34. Those numbers arent great for Obama in terms of the black vote

but it is good in terms of the latino vote.

[K Gardner]

36. Thanks Jen.. for all your hard work and the tentatively good news ! Go Buckeyes!

[tandem5]

37. 65% and 18% are good numbers for clinton...

now what was the turn out for the various demographics?

[MadBadger]

43. Survey USA actually predicted those numbers for Hillary. They have Obama eeking out a win

[NJSecularist]

32. Did anybody see the white number in that CNN Texas exit poll?

That will probably decide the state.

[nomorewhopper]

33. MORE RESULTS: Six in 10 Democratic voters in Ohio.....

AP: Six in 10 Democratic voters in Ohio called the economy their top issue, and 8 in 10 said trade eliminates more job than it creates.

[democrattotheend]

35. Link to more (mostly useless) data

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/7357794

[catagory5]

38. mood in obama camp turns to subdued.....Not good Obama!

2.41pm - It really does appear that Hillary is exceeding expectations in the early data. As we always caution, take first waves as they are meant to be, which is a pile of data that has not been properly normalized for known demographics. More in a minute.

3pm - New reports of Obama cheating the caucus system on election day. This story will rage tonight.

3.02 - More on the caucus… remember that ANYONE who voted in the Democrat primary is eligible for the Democrat caucus. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, that means thousands of Republicans attempting to manipulate the election will be eligible if they want to take the time. Something tells me that this time, the Democrats will not want to make sure every vote is counted. The media coverage of this mess is going to give the Texas election system a black eye.

3.24 EST - The Obama campaign is preparing it’s surrogates to claim the delegate count on a national scale, and why Clinton, even after doing well in Texas and Ohio, still can’t catch Obama in the delegate count, and that Obama is still the delegate leader and has won the vast majority of the last dozen states. They are also going to downplay Ohio and try to build up delegate count in Texas as opposed to popular vote. I don’t know if this is just worst case scenario planning on Obama’s behalf or a tip of the hand at what their internals are showing.

3.50 EST - Turnout is much higher than any previous primary, but turnout is LOWER than all the pundits were predicting. Most pundits and those in the know thought turnout would exceed 3 million, some even suggesting it would be closer to 3.5 million. Absent a huge surge this evening, the predictions seem to be off. Young African American turnout is 1/3 lower than expected, maybe they’ll show up in the final wave??

4.15 EST - Rumors a swirling that some Obama supporters are not voting in the primary and instead are going to turnout in force at the caucus tonight at 7:15 since Obama is supposed to “do well” in the caucus. The only problem with that line of thinking is that those who didn’t vote in the Dem. primary can’t caucus. Somebody better get that word out to the Obama ground game!

4.30 EST - Mood in Obama camp shifting to subdued. They are lowering expectations this afternoon and talking about the next contests like Hillary did in past days. Obama: “We closed the gap, but you know whether it’s going to be enough to actually win is going to depend on turnout. We know there’s not going to be a huge shift in delegates one way or another — just given the math. Which means that either way we will go to Mississippi or Wyoming next week.”

[NJSecularist]

41. Stop posting that right wing garbage

Thank you.

[NJSecularist]

40. AP is reporting that close to 1/3 of the vote in Texas is Hispanic

Not good news for Obama.

20% black turnout.

Obama needs to get within 5-10 of the white vote if he wants to win Texas.

[Drunken Irishman]

42. If it's only 20% black turnout, Obama will lose Texas by over 10 points.

[Colobo]

44. That would be terrible.

[Drunken Irishman]

48. It's looking to shape up that way.

Unless he dominates the white vote, which I don't think he will.

[Renew Deal]

64. Susa had the white vote 50-46 for Hillary

If they hit those numbers, Obama will probably win.

[NJSecularist]

47. Depends on the white vote.

If he comes within 10-12 of the white vote, he can still win the state.

[MadBadger]

55. NO! Look at the SUSA poll that has him winning by one

They had black vote at 17%, Hispanic vote at 32%, and had him winning by one.

[Mass]

60. Why? SUSA had Obama slightly ahead in TX with 18 % of black turnout.

You're not an optimist. I do not know if Obama or Clinton will win TX, but it will be by less than that.

[democrattotheend]

84. I never claimed to be an optimist

Despite supporting the candidate who is supposedly a "hopemonger", I refuse to ever get my hopes up. I have gotten my heart broken too many times.

[VolcanoJen]

75. Not true! Most turnout models in TX had AA turnout at 16%.

20% turnout is nothing but good for Obama in Texas.

And there's the early vote... which is through the freaking roof, and obviously not exit polled. :-)

[geek tragedy]

46. Link? nt

[NJSecularist]

50. Here

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_RDP?SITE=ALMON&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

[MadBadger]

51. SUSA so far is on track and then some. Doesnt look to be bad news necessarily

They predicted Hillary to get 18% of the black vote and 64% of the Hispanic vote. They had latino vote at 32% and the black vote at 17%. So if their white numbers hold, he has a good shot here.

[thewiseguy]

57. A third of election day votes are Hispanic...

That is the election day folks. It does not take into account the early votes. More than half the ballots were casted early.

[book_worm]

53. the ? is how did Obama do in early voting?

if he did well it could mean that fewer of his voters turned out today at the polls.

[Renew Deal]

58. That means that Obama needs 47% of the white vote to win,

...

[blitzen]

62. doesn't seem to take into account early voting....

the story says "according to voters who left the polling place"....makes no mention of early voting.

It's fairly safe to assume that lots of blacks voted early, due to Obama GOTV efforts.

[Renew Deal]

69. The question is who's right about early voters?

Is it Belo or Survey USA? Either way, it looks like Texas will be TIGHT!

[amborin]

52. whoever wins Ohio, wins the nominatIon and the GE

[book_worm]

54. Not likely

if HRC wins narrowly in Ohio then Obama gets lots of delegates from Ohio.

[K Gardner]

63. Link?? Hillary, is that you??

[Teaser]

65. are you some kind of bot?

because this is the 3rd thread I've seen you post that on.

[Arugula Latte]

83. Oh that makes a lot of sense ... Yes, only one state determines the nomination.

:eyes:

[VolcanoJen]

56. Fox News exits from Ohio &Texas - Which Dem more likely to defeat Republican in fall

Ohio:
Obama: 52%
Clinton: 44%

Texas:
Obama: 52%
Clinton: 41%

Edit: I have no idea if that was an exit poll of Republican or Democratic voters, so until I find out, that's kinda worthless.

[Drunken Irishman]

68. It's worthless, regardless, since it's asking who they THINK will defeat the Repub.

Not who they voted for.

There are a lot of Hillary Clinton supporters who believe Obama will do a better job at beaing McCain.

[nomorewhopper]

73. The Fox News Exit Polls you quoted are DEMOCRAT voters

http://thepage.time.com/first-wave-of-fox-democratic-exit-polls-for-ohio-texas/

[jefferson_dem]

59. Self-delete.

Numbers don't even add up.

[tandem5]

61. 105% eh

[NJSecularist]

66. 54-51?

Huh?

[jefferson_dem]

71. Yeah. Caught that after I posted.

Should know to not rely on some random blog comment like that.

:crazy:

[thewiseguy]

70. What percentage of the blacks did vote early?

That is a huge question mark for me.

[Vinca]

72. Hillary might have learned something from "Reagan's rule"

about not trashing members of your own party.

[Tropics_Dude83]

74. Looks like Obama is our nominee-Breaking exit poll results

First Word of Exits For Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont

This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It's unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day.

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

You'll hear more as I learn more.


03/04 06:00 PM

[meow mix]

76. Obama wins Ohio, Hillary wins Tx. would be too funny LOL

}(

[blonndee]

86. That would be funny.

It would even make me feel better about the last few days being sick worrying about Texas. :)

[VolcanoJen]

77. No Clinton blowout = bad night for Clinton.

Any win in the popular vote for Hillary, if under 5 points, is purely symbolic. It's a situation in Ohio where Obama could lose the popular vote by a couple of points, and still win more delegates.

This is great news if you're an Obama supporter. :-)

[jefferson_dem]

78. No shit!

Basically, if these hold up ---

RI and OH will be a wash.

Obama will win more delegates in TX due to the caucus.

Obama wins +6(ish) delegates in VT.

:woohoo: Let it be so!

[Tropics_Dude83]

81. All right

Obama is now our nominee. My Hillary bashing henceforth will end.

She's run a spirited campaign and was the strongest female candidate for president ever. In the end, she could not fight the wave that was Barack Obama. She held out much longer than anyone else would have.

She'll play a key role in the Obama campaign and presidency I hope.

If these exits are true, she has to withdraw.

[blonndee]

87. Just hold on...

we don't know anything yet. I know how you feel, but let's just try to chill and see what happens. (I'm trying not to make this a rollercoaster night in terms of emotions, which is difficult!)

[nomorewhopper]

79. MORE EXIT POLL RESULTS: TX (Blacks O-83%, C-16%, Latinos C-64%, O-35%)

Texas:

African-Americans: Obama 83%, Clinton 16%
Latinos: Clinton 64%, Obama 35%

Ohio:

Voters under 30: Obama 65%, Clinton 34%
Voters 60 and over: Clinton 67%, Obama 31%

Does trade reduce more jobs than it creates?

Ohio: Yes 81% Texas: Yes 58%

[thewiseguy]

82. Where is this from buddy?

That looks good for Obama.

[thewiseguy]

85. This is what SUSA had for Texas

Amongst Hispanics: Clinton was leading Obama 64 to 33 (Your numbers are slightly better for Obama)
Amongst Blacks: Obama was leading 79-18 (Your numbers are also slightly better for Obama)

SUSA predicted a 32% Hispanic turnout and a 17% Black turnout. They gave Clinton a 2 point lead among early voters.

In spite of all that Obama was leading her by 1 point!

So if your numbers hold up true then this by no means is a blowout. In fact we might celebrate an Obama victory tonight.

[nomorewhopper]

88. heres the link to the exit poll data i referenced above

http://thepage.time.com/preliminary-exit-poll-data-from-cnn/

[Coexist]

80. thanks- I'm not plugged in, so I am just trying to breathe.