Halperin has some hard exit poll data from OH and TX...

[Sir Jeffrey]

http://thepage.time.com/first-wave-of-fox-democratic-exit-polls-for-ohio-texas/

Best to beat the GOP:
Ohio — Obama 52, Clinton 44
Texas — Obama 52, Clinton 41

Offers clear and detailed plans:
Ohio — Clinton 67, Obama 57
Texas — Clinton 66, Obama 52

Inspires you about the future?
Ohio — Obama 67, Clinton 57
Texas — Obama 64, Clinton 57

More than half say they would be dissatisfied if their candidate does not win the nomination.

[cali]

1. interesting, buy I haven't a clue as to what it means. n/t

[Sir Jeffrey]

2. It means that if this data is close to accurate...

Obama wins both TX and OH tonight.

But that is a big "if".

[skipos]

9. Not really

I remember an exit poll that had a lot of people saying Hillary would have a tougher time in the gen. elec. but voting for her anyway, or something like that.

This doesn't tell me anything.

[grantcart]

8. it means that we are going thru that boy we got sucked into the

burning our eyes out on the worthless exit polls because we just cannot wait until the real thing comes out in an hour

oh wait heres another i gotta go bye

[Cant trust em]

12. It means you have to wait a few hours to find out

another long day at the office. I can't wait for this season to be over.

[jgraz]

17. You don't have a clue about much

Sorry -- I just can't take another day of us AGREEING!!!! :hurts:

OK, I feel better now. :hi:

[cali]

35. har de har har

golly aren't you ever the wit? Phew. That does feel better.

:hi:

[blonndee]

45. Heh.

I was about to flame you for ragging on cali. A little quick with the keyboard, I guess. I need to remember to take DEEP BREATHS tonight. ;-)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. These look favorable for Obama, to my eyes

[MadBadger]

4. The electablility one is what does it.

[tekisui]

7. .

:thumbsup:

[Sir Jeffrey]

6. Yeah, those OH figures really stand out to me...

We'll see.

[skooooo]

39. It could be...

But it all depends on who voted for which issue...I guess. I mean can you really tell by these numbers?

[powergirl]

5. It states that Obama has the best chance to become a Democratic president

He has a better chance to beat McCave. This is why I support Obama. I want a Democratic president.

[Sir Jeffrey]

13. People tend not to vote for the candidate they think will lose...

That is why I am expecting the actual result to reflect that figure...if it is accurate.

[Bucky]

31. IF

by Rudyard Kipling seems to describe Clinton more than Obama--at least the putting all your money on one roll of the dice part, anyway.

[NightWatcher]

10. everyone thinks there candidate can beat the gop

I read that as more people voting for Obama. I'd love a victory in Ohio

[NJSecularist]

11. This doesn't tell us anything

Thanks for the info, though.

[Sir Jeffrey]

14. See post 13 nt

[NJSecularist]

36. Sorry, but it doesn't say anything really..

Many voters will vote for someone who they think doesn't have the best chance at winning the nomination.

[Sir Jeffrey]

49. We'll see. nt

[tekisui]

It tells us enough to keep biting our finger nails.

[Debi]

15. Is there such a thing as a hard exit poll? n/t

[Sir Jeffrey]

22. These are actual numbers...

the first exit polling "data" that was leaked sucked.

[NightWatcher]

23. that sounds real uncomfortable

[Sir Jeffrey]

27. This was my first thought, but I didn't have the stones to post it nt

[Blaze Diem]

16. I used to know someone who took Halperin..

can't recall what it was for though.

[powergirl]

25. It sounds like something Rush Limbaugh took

n/t

[Blaze Diem]

41. Ya, I think it was a pre-lobotomy med. Or anal disorders ..

gee I'm not sure but Rush qualifies wither way.
Anal disorder of the brain maybe.

[AtomicKitten]

18. I guess Hillary's pie charts didn't give her the edge after all.

It is Obama's inspirational leadership people crave and voters clearly see him as the best bet against the GOP.

[Tropics_Dude83]

20. NOT A TROLL-BREAKING *BREAKING*-BREAKING*-HILLARY IS FINISHED

First Word of Exits For Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont

This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It's unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day.

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

You'll hear more as I learn more.


03/04 06:00 PM

National Review

[AtomicKitten]

29. Wow! He's made all four states competitive.

I'm telling you that boy has skills!!!

Woo-hoo!!!!! :)

[democrattotheend]

32. Where are you getting these?

Obama up 2 in Rhode Island?????

[Tropics_Dude83]

37. National Review online is my source

That's the source which has nailed the primary exit polls so far. Hillary looking like she'll have a net gain of 0 delgates tonight and still be 105 total delegates behind.

Look for a withdrawal annoucement within 48 hours.

[Renew Deal]

19. Does anyone know how to add?

Those numbers are over 100!

[AtomicKitten]

21. I don't think this was an either/or poll.

[Kber]

24. How come some of the %'s add up to more than 100?

[Bucky]

26. Nice, but where's the money shot?

Where's it gonna say who won won?

If Barack takes a double shut on the important states (ooo, another nice dig at Rhode Island and Vermont!) I think we have to call this over. I'm not optimistic, however. I still think Ohio is Clinton's to win.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

28. A clarification of these numbers:

We do not know if these are polled as attributes of candidates, or as reasons for having voted for candidate X.

As in, "Among voters who said their top reason for picking a candidate was that he or she inspires them about the future..."

The fact some of the the numbers add up to more than 100 suggests they are not either/or questions. So we have the answers, but not the questions. (?)

[NMMatt]

30. What I find interesting is that Ohio and Texas are so similar

But it is hard to see what these numbers mean completely out of context.

[totodeinhere]

33. This is the scary part.

More than half say they would be dissatisfied if their candidate does not win the nomination.

I was afraid this would happen. We need to wrap up this race soon before it gets worse and helps McCain's chances.

[meow mix]

38. this is why the supers will choose a side.. and fast

[Sir Jeffrey]

34. Nora O'Donnell just said on MSNBC that...

in their exit polling, "change" won over "experience"...or something to that effect. I was scolding my cat. Anyone catch that?

[skooooo]

40. Woo hooo! Change = Obama!

Signed, sealed, delivered!

[blonndee]

43. Yes, I did. I was just about to post that.

I can't remember the numbers, though, but I remember thinking it was substantial enough to look pretty good for Obama, if accurate.

Will see if I can find it.

[Sir Jeffrey]

47. ABC news has the same thing here...

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4386210&page=1

Change tops experience again.

[JoFerret]

42. Remember Kerry. Remember Dukakis

Both seemed shoe-ins. Dukakis was double digits ahead of Bush throughout the summer.

[liberal N proud]

44. Nowhere does it say how anyone voted

Anyone can get anything they want from polls like that.
Is this the type of crap they use now and call it exit polling?

[Skoods]

46. Haven't we learned from 2004

that exit polls are useless

[Jersey Devil]

48. precisely! Kerry won handily in the exit polls

We'll know in a few hours so I am not going to get all worked up about the speculation of exit polls.